The Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources in the West: Introduction and Overview

The results of an experimental `end to end' assessment of the effects of climate change on water resources in the western United States are described. The assessment focuses on the potential effects of climate change over the first half of the 21st century on the Columbia, Sacramento/San Joaquin, and Colorado river basins. The paper describes the methodology used for the assessment, and it summarizes the principal findings of the study. The strengths and weaknesses of this study are discussed, and suggestions are made for improving future climate change assessments.     

Modal metasomatism in the Kaapvaal craton lithosphere: constraints on timing and genesis from U–Pb zircon dating of metasomatized peridotites and MARID-type xenoliths

Modal metasomatism in the Kaapvaal craton lithosphere is well documented in upper mantle xenoliths sampled by both group I (mainly late Cretaceous) and group II (mainly early Cretaceous to late Jurassic) kimberlites in the Kimberley area. The metasomatic style is characterized by introduction of K, H and large ion lithophile/high field strength (LIL/HFS) elements into the lithospheric mantle leading to the crystallization of hydrous potassic phases such as phlogopite and/or K-amphibole. Textures indicate that the hydrous phases either replace pre-existing assemblages in peridotites, forming the metasomatized peridotite suite (phlogopite–K-richterite–peridotites: PKPs) or crystallize from K-rich melts, forming the mica–amphibole–rutile–ilmenite–diopside (MARID) suite of xenoliths. These K-rich assemblages become potential low melting source components for alkaline incompatible trace element enriched magmas. The timing of metasomatism and its temporal and possible genetic relation to kimberlite magmatism is poorly constrained because of the rarity of phases in the metasomatic assemblages suitable for precise dating. Here we present precise sensitive high resolution ion microprobe (SHRIMP) U–Pb formation ages of 88 ± 2 (1σ=1 standard deviation) and 82 ± 3 Ma data for zircons from a K-richterite–phlogopite-bearing metasomatized peridotite (PKP) and a MARID xenolith respectively, sampled by a group I kimberlite. Both average PKP and MARID zircon ages are indistinguishable from emplacement ages of group I kimberlites in the Kimberley area dated at 83 ± 4 (2σ) and 84 ± 0.9 Ma. One exceptionally old age spot of 102 ± 5 Ma from a PKP zircon provides evidence for modal metasomatism predating group I kimberlite emplacement by several millions of years with minor resetting of the U–Pb isotopic system of most analyzed PKP zircons to a group I emplacement age. Detailed textural and mineral chemical analysis, including high energy X-ray mapping and analysis of fluid inclusion daughter crystals, indicates a complex reaction history for both PKPs and MARIDs. U–Pb zircon ages from this study combined with literature data and experimentally derived models for MARID formation are used to suggest that MARID-formation is concurrent and genetically related to both group I and II kimberlite magmatism in the Kimberley area. MARID and PKP zircon ages are also consistent with the idea first proposed by Dawson and Smith (Geochim Cosmochim Acta 41: 309–323, 1977) that metasomatized peridotites may form from interaction of hydrous fluids expelled by solidifying MARID-type melts with peridotitic wall rocks. Received: 13 December 1999 / Accepted: 13 April 2000     

193nmLA-ICPMS对国际地质标准参考物质中42种主量和微量元素的分析

本文采用配备有 193nm Ar F准分子 (excimer)激光器的 Geo L as2 0 0 M剥蚀系统和 Elan6 10 0 DRC ICP- MS对 4个美国地质调查所 (USGS)玻璃标准参考物质以及 3个美国国家标准技术研究院 (NIST)人工合成硅酸盐玻璃标准参考物质中几乎覆盖整个质量数范围 (从 7L i到 2 38U)的 38个微量和 4个主量 (Na、Mg、Ti和 Mn)元素进行了分析。分析结果表明 ,无论是对 USGS还是 NIST玻璃 ,元素分析的相对标准偏差 RSDs和分析值与参考值之间的相对偏差 (RDs)一般优于 10 % ,RSD和RD较大的元素主要出现在含量很低或不均匀样品中。稀土元素的 RSD显示 ,除 AGV- 2 G可能存在不均匀现象外 ,其它所测样品在 6 0 μm尺度上 ,元素分布是均匀的。本研究证明 ,由于 ICP- MS具有 10 8cps(每秒计数 )的动态线性范围 ,本实验室的L A- ICPMS系统可定量分析含量在百分之几的主量元素及微量元素。分析精密度和准确度可与常规溶液雾化进样 ICP- MS方法相媲美     

Accurate U-Pb Age and Trace Element Determinations of Zircon by Laser Ablation-Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry

Various zircons of Proterozoic to Oligocene ages (1060-31 Ma) were analysed by laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. Calibration was performed using Harvard reference zircon 91500 or Australian National University reference zircon TEMORA 1 as external calibrant. The results agree with those obtained by SIMS within 2s error. Twenty-four trace and rare earth elements (P, Ti, Cr, Y, Nb, fourteen REE, Hf, Ta, Pb, Th and U) were analysed on four fragments of zircon 91500. NIST SRM 610 was used as the reference material and ²⁹Si was used as internal calibrant. Based on determinations of four fragments, this zircon shows significant intra-and inter-fragment variations in the range from 10% to 85% on a scale of 120 μm, with the variation of REE concentrations up to 38.7%, although the chondrite-normalised REE distributions are very similar. In contrast, the determined age values for zircon 91500 agree with TIMS data and are homogeneous within 8.7 Ma (2 s ). A two-stage ablation strategy was developed for optimising U-Pb age determinations with satisfactory trace element and REE results. The first cycle of ablation was used to collect data for age determination only, which was followed by continuous ablation on the same spot to determine REE and trace element concentrations. Based on this procedure, it was possible to measure zircon ages as low as 30.37 0.39 Ma (MSWD = 1.4; 2 s ). Other examples for older zircons are also given.     

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.     

Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes

We present regional sea-level projections and associated uncertainty estimates for the end of the 21 ^st century. We show regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models. These are combined with model- and observation-based regional contributions of land ice, groundwater depletion and glacial isostatic adjustment, including gravitational effects due to mass redistribution. A moderate and a warmer climate change scenario are considered, yielding a global mean sea-level rise of 0.54 ±0.19 m and 0.71 ±0.28 m respectively (mean ±1σ). Regionally however, changes reach up to 30 % higher in coastal regions along the North Atlantic Ocean and along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and up to 20 % higher in the subtropical and equatorial regions, confirming patterns found in previous studies. Only 50 % of the global mean value is projected for the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, the Arctic Ocean and off the western Antarctic coast. Uncertainty estimates for each component demonstrate that the land ice contribution dominates the total uncertainty.     

On Boussinesq's problem for Maxwell continua subject to an external gravity field

Summary. Boussinesq's problem is solved for a uniform and incompressible Maxwell half-space subject to an external gravity field. The solution is based on momentum equations which account for stress advection in the hydrostatically pre-stressed continuum during its deformation. The analysis shows that disregarding the pre-stress term renders the theoretical stress distribution incorrect and the deformation singular in the inviscid limit of the Maxwell continuum. Our solution is contrasted with a recently published alternative solution of the same problem, where regularity in the inviscid limit was forced by modified boundary conditions.     

Adaptation in integrated assessment modeling: where do we stand?

Adaptation is an important element on the climate change policy agenda. Integrated assessment models, which are key tools to assess climate change policies, have begun to address adaptation, either by including it implicitly in damage cost estimates, or by making it an explicit control variable. We analyze how modelers have chosen to describe adaptation within an integrated framework, and suggest many ways they could improve the treatment of adaptation by considering more of its bottom-up characteristics. Until this happens, we suggest, models may be too optimistic about the net benefits adaptation can provide, and therefore may underestimate the amount of mitigation they judge to be socially optimal. Under some conditions, better modeling of adaptation costs and benefits could have important implications for defining mitigation targets.