Assessing the effects of land cover and future climate conditions on the provision of hydrological services in a medium‐sized watershed of Portugal

The separated and combined effects of land‐cover scenarios and future climate on the provision of hydrological services were evaluated in Vez watershed, northern Portugal. Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated against daily discharge, sediments and nitrates, with good agreements between model predictions and field observations. Four hypothetical land‐cover scenarios were applied under current climate conditions (eucalyptus/pine, oak, agriculture/vine and low vegetation). A statistical downscaling of four General Circulation Models, bias‐corrected with ground observations, was carried out for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060, using representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario. Also, the combined effects of future climate conditions were evaluated under eucalyptus/pine and agriculture/vine scenario. Results for land cover revealed that eucalyptus/pine scenario reduced by 7% the annual water quantity and up to 17% in the summer period. Although climate change has only a modest effect on the reduction of the total annual discharge (?7%), the effect on the water levels during summer was more pronounced, between ?15% and ?38%. This study shows that climate change can affect the provision of hydrological services by reducing dry season flows and by increasing flood risks during the wet months. Regarding the combined effects, future climate may reduce the low flows, which can be aggravated with eucalyptus/pine scenario. In turn, peak flows and soil erosion can be offset. Future climate may increase soil erosion and nitrate concentration, which can be aggravated with agriculture scenario. Results moreover emphasize the need to consider both climate and land‐cover impacts in adaptation and land management options at the watershed scale. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Can agriculture support climate change adaptation, greenhouse gas mitigation and rural livelihoods? insights from Kenya

Changes in the agriculture sector are essential to mitigate and adapt to climate change, meet growing food demands, and improve the livelihoods of poor smallholder producers. What agricultural strategies are needed to meet these challenges? To what extent are there synergies among these strategies? This paper examines these issues for smallholder producers in Kenya across several agroecological zones. Several practices emerge as triple wins, supporting climate adaptation, greenhouse gas mitigation, and profitability goals. In particular, integrated soil fertility management and improved livestock feeding are shown to provide multiple benefits across all agroecological zones examined. Triple wins of other agricultural practices are limited to specific agroecological zones. Irrigation and soil and water conservation, for example, are essential for adaptation, mitigation, and profitability in arid areas. The results suggest that agricultural investments targeted toward these triple-win strategies will have the greatest payoff in terms of increased resilience of farm and pastoralist households and global climate change mitigation. To reap the benefits of triple-win strategies will require that policymakers, researchers, and practitioners move away from isolated approaches focused on either adaptation or mitigation or rural income generation toward a more holistic assessment of joint strategies as well as their tradeoffs and synergies.     

Numerical determination of pressure-dependent effective thermal conductivity in Berea sandstone

In this paper, the methods of digital rock physics are applied to determine pressure-dependent effective thermal conductivity in rock samples. Simulations are performed with an in-house three-dimensional finite volume code. In the first step, four numerical models are derived from a given tomographic scan of Berea sandstone. Consequently, simulations of the thermal conductivity at ambient conditions are performed and validated with experimental data. In a second step, a new workflow for the determination of the pressure-dependent thermal conductivity in rock samples is elaborated, tested and calibrated. Results originating from the derived workflow show very good agreement with experimental data.     

Topographic effects observed at Amatrice hill during the 2016-2017 Central Italy seismic sequence

The estimate of seismic site effects by experimental approaches is based on different assumptions aimed at simplifying the complex actual site conditions and related uncertainties.However,the reliability of the results can increase if the experimental data is focused on quite strong seismic sequences and the on-site acquisition of a large number of signals is deemed strategic for the assessment of the expected phenomena.Based on these considerations,the ground motion at the Red Zone sector of Amatrice hill,violently struck by the 2016-2017 Central Italy seismic sequence,was analyzed via an observational approach.A large set of weak motions(moment magnitude Mw 2.5-3.9)was analyzed in this study by means of standard(SSR)and horizontal to vertical(HVSR)spectral ratio techniques.The results from the experimental analysis of the site effects by using weak motion and noise signals show a significant amplification at the top of Amatrice hill with a remarkable polarization of the motion and changes in spectral shapes according to the topographic setting of the relief.     

Thermal surface characteristics of coal fires 1 results of in-situ measurements

Natural underground coal fires are fires in coal seams occurring subsurface. The fires are ignited through a process named spontaneous combustion, which occurs based on a natural reaction but is usually triggered through human interaction. Coal mining activities expose coal to the air. This leads to the exothermal oxidation of the carbon in the coal with the air's oxygen to CO₂ and – under certain circumstances – to spontaneous combustion. Coal fires occur in many countries world wide – however, currently the Chinese coal mining industry faces the biggest problems with coal fires. Coal fires destroy the valuable resource coal and furthermore lead to many environmental degradation phenomena such as the deterioration of surrounding vegetation, land subsidence and the emission of toxic gasses (CO, N₂O). They additionally contribute to the emission of green house relevant gasses such as CO₂ and CH₄ to the atmosphere.In this paper we present thermal characteristics of coal fires as measured in-situ during a field campaign to the Wuda coal fire area in south-central Inner Mongolia, China. Thermal characteristics include temperature anomaly measurements at the surface, spatial surface temperature profiles of fire areas and unaffected background areas, diurnal temperature profiles, and temperature measurements inside of coal fire induced cracks in the overlying bedrock. For all the measurements the effects of uneven solar heating through influences of slope and aspect are considered.Our findings show that coal fires result in strong or subtle thermal surface anomalies. Especially the latter can easily be influenced by heating of the surrounding background material through solar influences. Temperature variation of background rocks with different albedo, slope, aspect or vegetation cover can substantially influence the detectability of thermal anomalies. In the worst case coal fire related thermal anomalies can be completely masked by solar patterns during the daytime. Thus, night-time analysis is the most suitable for thermal anomaly mapping of underground coal fires, although this is not always feasible. The heat of underground coal fires only progresses very slowly through conduction in the rock material. Anomalies of coal fires completely covered by solid unfractured bedrock are very weak and were only measured during the night. The thermal pattern of underground coal fires manifested on the surface during the daytime is thus the pattern of cracks and vents, which occur due to the volume loss underground and which support radiation and convective energy transport of hot gasses. Inside coal fire temperatures can hardly be measured and can only be recorded if the glowing coal is exposed through a wider crack in the overlaying bedrock. Direct coal fire temperatures measured ranged between 233 °C and 854 °C. The results presented can substantially support the planning of thermal mapping campaigns, analyses of coal fire thermal anomalies in remotely sensed data, and can provide initial and boundary conditions for coal fire related numerical modeling.In a second paper named “Thermal Characteristics of Coal Fires 2: results of measurements on simulated coal fires” [Zhang J., Kuenzer C., Tetzlaff A., Oettl D., Zhukov B., Wagner W., 2007. Thermal Characteristics of Coal Fires 2: Result of measurements on simulated coal fires. Accepted for publication at Journal of Applied Geophysics. doi:10.1016/j.jappgeo.2007.08.003] we report about thermal characteristics of simulated coal fires simulated under simplified conditions. The simulated set up allowed us to measure even more parameters under undisturbed conditions — especially inside fire temperatures. Furthermore we could demonstrate the differences between open surface coal fires and covered underground coal fires. Thermal signals of coal fires in near range thermal remotely sensed imagery from an observing tower and from an airplane are presented and discussed.     

A land-use-based modelling chain to assess the impacts of Natural Water Retention Measures on Europe’s Green Infrastructure

This article details the process of integrating models to answer a specific policy-driven question: ‘What could be the impact of proposed Natural Water Retention Measures (NWRMs) on Europe’s Green Infrastructure (GI)?’ It describes the new Land Use Modelling Platform (LUMP), now enabling a high spatial scale (100-m) and large coverage (pan-European), whereby several sector-specific models contribute to assessing the impact of regional-level policy on a given spatial topic of concern. The configuration (land claims and land allocations modules) and calibration (accessibility and biophysical suitability) of the LUMP are explained. Four NWRM scenarios (riparian areas, afforestation, grassland and baseline scenario) are configured to run the simulations. For the reference: year 2006, the spatial representation of GI is based on land-use features of a refined version of the CORINE Land Cover (CLC), and resumed as connected components made of nodes and links.

Mathematical morphological image processing and network graph theory model, available from the free software package GUIDOS (the Joint Research Center of the European Commission), enabled the measurement of the GI connectivity and identified most critical links. Results show that the competition for land claimed by different economic sectors, combined with policy-driven rule-sets for the implementation of different NWRMs, yields very different results for the 2030 land-use projections, and subsequently for the morphology of GI. Three indicators associated with the morphology of GI are computed in order to assess the model outputs for 2030. The indicators are computed to answer the following questions: (1) How is the quantity of GI affected by each of the NWRM, and what proportion of that GI is most valuable? (2) What is the location of the most critical nodes and connectors of GI, and what land-use conversions occur under these? (3) Are the average components getting larger or smaller?

Whereas the grassland measure results in the largest net increase of GI, the afforestation measure results in the overall largest number of hectares of key nodes and links within the network. Land conversions occur under the critical GI nodes and links, with a large increase in agricultural areas, especially for the riparian measure under critical nodes and the grassland measure under critical links. Also predominant is the swapping of land from pasture to forest under critical links with the afforestation measure. The riparian measure most increases the average size of GI components, and all three measures contribute to bridging two large components which were divided in the 2006 land-use map, thus increasing the size of the largest component by more than 50%.     

Chemical characterization of fine particulate matter during peak PM10 episodes in Apulia (South Italy)

Some peak PM10 episodes, occurred during PM monitoring campaigns performed on October 2005 and February and June 2006 in Bari town, have been characterized. Moreover back trajectories of air masses and Principal Component Analyses were applied. Three of the peak PM10 episodes investigated were related to local emissions of primary pollutants during poor atmospheric dispersion conditions. The other two peak PM10 episodes considered are related with long range transport air masses toward Apulia region: in one case the chemical characterization and the back trajectories analysis indicate that high PM10 value detected is due to the Saharan dust advection in the Apulia region; in the other case air masses with different origin give rise to high PM10 value.Moreover PM10 daily mean concentrations, presented in this paper collected from January 2005 to August 2007 and obtained by automatic device in six stations of air quality monitoring networks in Bari territory, do not show a seasonal trend for PM10 concentrations, contrary to the PM10 trend shown in the towns of North Italy. This can be explained mostly considering that our region presents generally meteo-climatic conditions that favour pollutants dispersion.     

U–Pb geochronology of the southern Brasília belt (SE-Brazil): sedimentary provenance, Neoproterozoic orogeny and assembly of West Gondwana

The Brasília belt borders the western margin of the São Francisco Craton and records the history of ocean opening and closing related to the formation of West Gondwana. This study reports new U–Pb data from the southern sector of the belt in order to provide temporal limits for the deposition and ages of provenance of sediments accumulated in passive margin successions around the south and southwestern margins of the São Francisco Craton, and date the orogenic events leading to the amalgamation of West Gondwana.Ages of detrital zircons (by ID–TIMS and LA-MC-ICPMS) were obtained from metasedimentary units of the passive margin of the São Francisco Craton from the main tectonic domains of the belt: the internal allochthons (Araxá Group in the Áraxá and Passos Nappes), the external allochthons (Canastra Group, Serra da Boa Esperança Metasedimentary Sequence and Andrelândia Group) and the autochthonous or Cratonic Domain (Andrelândia Group). The patterns of provenance ages for these units are uniform and are characterised as follows: Archean–Paleoproterozoic ages (3.4–3.3, 3.1–2.7, and 2.5–2.4 Ga); Paleoproterozoic ages attributed to the Transamazonian event (2.3–1.9 Ga, with a peak at ca. 2.15 Ga) and to the ca. 1.75 Ga Espinhaço rifting of the São Francisco Craton; ages between 1.6 and 1.2 Ga, with a peak at 1.3 Ga, revealing an unexpected variety of Mesoproterozoic sources, still undetected in the São Francisco Craton; and ages between 0.9 and 1.0 Ga related to the rifting event that led to the individualisation of the São Francisco paleo-continent and formation of its passive margins. An amphibolite intercalation in the Araxá Group yields a rutile age of ca. 0.9 Ga and documents the occurrence of mafic magmatism coeval with sedimentation in the marginal basin.Detrital zircons from the autochthonous and parautochthonous Andrelândia Group, deposited on the southern margin of the São Francisco Craton, yielded a provenance pattern similar to that of the allochthonous units. This result implies that 1.6–1.2 Ga source rocks must be present in the São Francisco Craton. They could be located either in the cratonic area, which is mostly covered by the Neoproterozoic epicontinental deposits of the Bambuí Group, or in the outer paleo-continental margin, buried under the allochthonous units of the Brasília belt.Crustal melting and generation of syntectonic crustal granites and migmatisation at ca. 630 Ma mark the orogenic event that started with westward subduction of the São Francisco plate and ended with continental collision against the Paraná block (and Goiás terrane). Continuing collision led to the exhumation and cooling of the Araxá and Passos metamorphic nappes, as indicated by monazite ages of ca. 605 Ma and mark the final stages of tectonometamorphic activity in the southern Brasília belt.Whilst continent–continent collision was proceeding on the western margin of the São Francisco Craton along the southern Brasília belt, eastward subduction in the East was generating the 634–599 Ma Rio Negro magmatic arc which collided with the eastern São Francisco margin at 595–560 Ma, much later than in the Brasília belt. Thus, the tectonic effects of the Ribeira belt reached the southernmost sector of the Brasília belt creating a zone of superposition. The thermal front of this event affected the proximal Andrelândia Group at ca. 588 Ma, as indicated by monazite age.The participation of the Amazonian craton in the assembly of western Gondwana occurred at 545–500 Ma in the Paraguay belt and ca. 500 Ma in the Araguaia belt. This, together with the results presented in this work lead to the conclusion that the collision between the Paraná block and Goiás terrane with the São Francisco Craton along the Brasília belt preceded the accretion of the Amazonian craton by 50–100 million years.     

Copepod grazing during spring blooms: Can Pseudocalanus newmani induce trophic cascades?

During late winter and spring of 2002 and 2003, 24 two- to three-day cruises were conducted to Dabob Bay, Washington State, USA, to examine the grazing, egg production, and hatching success rates of adult female Calanus pacificus and Pseudocalanus newmani. Here, we discuss the results of our grazing experiments for P. newmani. Each week, we conducted traditional microzooplankton dilution experiments and “copepod dilution” experiments, each from two different layers. Grazing was measured by changes in chlorophyll concentration and direct cell counts. Clearance rates on individual prey species, as calculated by cell counts, showed that Pseudocalanus are highly selective in their feeding, and may have much higher grazing rates on individual taxa than calculated from bulk chlorophyll disappearance. The grazing rates of the copepods, however, are typically an order of magnitude lower than the grazing rates of the microzooplankton community, or the growth rates of the phytoplankton. P. newmani ingested diatoms, but, at certain times fed preferentially on microzooplankton, such as ciliates, tintinnids, and larger dinoflagellates. Removal of the microzooplankton may have released the other phytoplankton species from grazing pressure, allowing those species’ abundance to increase, which was measured as an apparent “negative” grazing on those phytoplankton species. The net result of grazing on some phytoplankton species, while simultaneously releasing others from grazing pressure resulted in bulk chlorophyll-derived estimates of grazing which were essentially zero or slightly negative; thus bulk chlorophyll disappearance is a poor indicator of copepod grazing. Whether copepods can significantly release phytoplankton from the grazing pressure by microzooplankton in situ, thus causing a trophic cascade, remains to be verified, but is suggested by our study.     

The influence of a mature cyclonic eddy on particle export in the lee of Hawaii

Mesoscale eddies may enhance primary production (PP) in the open ocean by bringing nutrient-rich deep waters into the euphotic zone, potentially leading to increased transport of particles to depth. This hypothesis remains controversial, however, due to a paucity of direct particle export measurements. In this study, we investigated particle dynamics using ²³⁴Th–²³⁸U disequilibria within a mesoscale cold-core eddy, Cyclone Opal, which formed in the lee of the Hawaiian Islands. ²³⁴Th samples were collected along two transects across Cyclone Opal as well as during a time-series within the eddy core during a decaying diatom bloom. Particulate carbon (PC), particulate nitrogen (PN) and biogenic silica (bSiO₂) fluxes at 150 m varied spatially and temporally within the eddy and strongly depended on the ²³⁴Th model formulation used (e.g., steady state versus non-steady state, inclusion of upwelling, etc.). Particle fluxes estimated from a steady state model assuming an upwelling rate of 2 m day⁻¹ yielded the best fit to sediment-trap data. These ²³⁴Th-derived particle fluxes ranged from 332±14 to 1719±53 μmol C m⁻² day⁻¹, 27±3 to 114±12 μmol N m⁻² day⁻¹, and 33±20 to 309±73 μmol Si m⁻² day⁻¹. Although PP rates within Cyclone Opal were elevated by a factor of 2–3, PC and PN fluxes were the same, within error, inside and outside of Cyclone Opal. The ratio of PC export to PP remained surprisingly low at <0.03 and similar to those measured in surrounding waters. In contrast, bSiO₂ fluxes within the eddy core were three times higher. Detailed analyses of ²³⁴Th depth profiles consistently showed excess ²³⁴Th at 100–175 m, associated with the remineralization and possible accumulation of suspended and dissolved organic matter from the surface. We suggest that strong microzooplankton grazing facilitated particulate organic matter recycling and resulted in the export of empty diatom frustules. Thus, while eddies may increase PP, they do not necessarily increase PC and PN export to deep waters. This may be a general characteristic of wind-driven cyclonic eddies of the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre and suggests that eddies may preferentially act as a silica pump, thereby playing an important role in promoting silicic-acid limitation in the region.