Refinement of the modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction

The modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction utilizes empirical relationships to reduce the number of unknown parameters providing a stable and unique solution set. The only unknown parameters in the modified time-to-failure method are the time and size of the impending main shock. The modified time-to-failure equation is used to model the precursory events and a prediction contour diagram is constructed with the magnitude and time-of-failure as the axes of the diagram. The root-mean-square (rms) is calculated for each set of time and magnitude on the prediction diagram representing the difference between the model (calculated) acceleration and the actual accelerated energy release of the precursory events. A small region, corresponding to the low rms region on the diagram, defines the prediction. The prediction has been shown to consistently under-estimate the magnitude and over-estimate the time-of-failure. These shortcomings are caused by an underestimation in energy release of the modified time-to-failure equation at the very end of the sequence. An empirical correction can be applied to the predicted results to minimize this problem. A main shock location search technique has been developed for use with the modified time-to-failure method. The location technique is used to systematically search an earthquake catalog and identify locations corresponding to precursory sequences that display accelerated energy releases. It has shown good results when applied in retrospective predictions, and is essential for the practical application of the modified time-to-failure method. In addition, an observed linear characteristic in long-term energy release can be used to minimize false predictions. The refined empirical relationships that eliminate or constrain unknown constants used in the modified time-to-failure method and the main shock location search technique are used in a practical application in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ). The NMSZ, which is over due for a magnitude 6 event according to recurrence rates (Johnston and Nava, 1985), makes this region ideal for testing the method. One location was identified in the NMSZ as a high risk area for an event in the magnitude 4.5 range. The prediction, if accurate, is of scientific interest only because of the relatively small size of the main shock.     

Biolaminoid facies in a peritidal sabkha: Permian Platy Dolomite of northern Poland

The Platy Dolomite, a carbonate unit in the Zechstein Formation (Upper Permian) of the Leba Elevation, Poland, was deposited in a semi-closed or completely separated back-barrier sabkha environment. This arid, hypersaline zone is comparable to the recent Gavish Sabkha, Sinai. The processes which formed the modern Gavish Sabkha are similar to those responsible for the biolaminoid formation in the Platy Dolomite series. The deposition of this Platy Dolomite was mainly the result of microbial activity building extensive microbial mats. The Platy Dolomite is characterized by loosely packed microbial biolaminoids (a less significantly laminated build-up of biogenetic sediments) with horizontally or obliquely to vertically orientated filaments. Intermediary coated grains occur. Densely packed, flat laminated stromatolitic rocks, pure oolites, and bioclastic sedimentary strata are rarely intercalated with the biolaminoid beds. Laboratory and field investigations indicate that carbonate formation was induced by the chemoorganotrophic bacterial decay of cyanobacterial mats. Magnesium was bound and absorbed by organic matter and later liberated by anaerobic decay. Early diagenetic processes formed Mg²⁺- and Ca²⁺-enriched solutions in which carbonates precipitated biologically and chemically. A system of biogenic carbonate formation of the Platy Dolomite microbiolite series is proposed and supported by the results of microbiological laboratory studies.