Characterising the vertical separation of shale-gas source rocks and aquifers across England and Wales (UK)

Shale gas is considered by many to have the potential to provide the UK with greater energy security, economic growth and jobs. However, development of a shale gas industry is highly contentious due to environmental concerns including the risk of groundwater pollution. Evidence suggests that the vertical separation between exploited shale units and aquifers is an important factor in the risk to groundwater from shale gas exploitation. A methodology is presented to assess the vertical separation between different pairs of aquifers and shales that are present across England and Wales. The application of the method is then demonstrated for two of these pairs—the Cretaceous Chalk Group aquifer and the Upper Jurassic Kimmeridge Clay Formation, and the Triassic sandstone aquifer and the Carboniferous Bowland Shale Formation. Challenges in defining what might be considered criteria for ‘safe separation’ between a shale gas formation and an overlying aquifer are discussed, in particular with respect to uncertainties in geological properties, aquifer extents and determination of socially acceptable risk levels. Modelled vertical separations suggest that the risk of aquifer contamination from shale exploration will vary greatly between shale–aquifer pairs and between regions and this will need to be considered carefully as part of the risk assessment and management for any shale gas development.     

Climate spectra and detecting climate change

Part of the debate over possible climate changes centers on the possibility that the changes observed over the previous century are natural in origin. This raises the question of how large a change could be expected as a result of natural variability. If the climate measurement of interest is modelled as a stationary (or related) Gaussian time series, this question can be answered in terms of (a) the way in which change is estimated, and (b) the spectrum of the time series. These computations are illustrated for 128 years of global temperature data using some simple measures of change and for a variety of possible temperature spectra. The results highlight the time scales on which it is important to know the magnitude of natural variability. The uncertainties in estimates of trend are most sensitive to fluctuations in the temperature series with periods from approximately 50 to 500 years. For some of the temperature spectra, it was found that the standard error of the least squares trend estimate was 3 times the standard error derived under the naïve assumption that the temperature series was uncorrelated. The observed trend differs from zero by more than 3 times the largest of the calculated standard errors, however, and is therefore highly significant.     

地下水水源保护区范围计算的KLF法及其在徐州张集地区的应用

详细介绍了地下水水源保护区范围的计算方法:Krijgsman-Lobo-Ferreira(KLF)法,分别推导出了正水流梯度方向、负水流梯度方向和垂直于地下水流方向保护区范围的计算公式,并就方法的适用性及参数取值等问题进行了探讨.在徐州张集地区应用的结果表明,KLF法提供了一种计算地下水保护区范围的便捷、科学、有效的方法,计算结果对于确定地下水源保护区范围及有效保护地下水源具有实际意义.     

A review of the assessments of the major fisheries resources in South Africa

The waters off South Africa's coastline boast a rich mix of commercially fished species. Quantitative assessments of these marine resources have developed from simple methods first applied in the 1970s, to models that encompass a wide range of methodologies. The more valuable resources have undergone regular assessments in recent decades, with frequencies closely related to the management approach employed for each fishery. Many of these assessments form the operating models used to simulation-test candidate management procedures. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the assessments of 11 of the most important fisheries resources in South Africa. Some assessments use simple biomass dynamics models, whereas others are a hybrid of age- and length-based models, each designed to model the specific characteristics of the resource and fishery concerned. Many of the assessments have been disaggregated by species/stock and/or area as related multispecies/stock/ distribution hypotheses have arisen. This paper explores the similarities and differences in the data available and the methods applied. The review indicates that, whereas the status of three of these resources cannot be estimated reliably at present, the status of six resources is considered to be reasonable to good, whereas that of abalone Haliotis midae and West Coast rock lobster Jasus lalandii remains poor.     

The proterozoic history of eastern Bolivia

About 100 000 km² of the previously unmapped Bolivian sector of the Central Brazil shield has been studied by “Proyecto Precámbrico”, an Anglo-Bolivian technical cooperation programme. The Lower Proterozoic is represented by the Lomas Maneches Granulite Group and the bulk of the Chiquitania Paragneiss Complex, which were formed during the Trans-Amazonic orogenic cycle (± 2000 Ma). The Middle Proterozoic spans the orogenic cycles of San Ignacio (± 2000-1300 Ma) and Sunsas (<1300-950 Ma). The San Ignacio cycle included the deposition of the San Ignacio Schist Group, now belts of pelitic schists with basic/ultrabasic sills, and the subsequent mobilisation of these and older rocks within a north-trending orogenic belt, accompanied by granitoid development. The Sunsas cycle began with the deposition of the molassic Sunsas Group and closed with the growth of a westnorthwest-trending orogenic belt, bordered to the north by a marginal zone and a stable craton, which was accompanied by granitoid phases and major basic/ultrabasic igneous activity. The close of the Sunsas orogeny marked the cratonization of the shield at about 950 Ma.Unmetamorphosed Upper Proterozoic and possibly Cambrian sediments on the southern and eastern flanks of the shield represent marine transgressions related to the intra-continental Braziliano orogenic cycle. East-trending dolerite dykes were probably intruded during this period within the shield.     

REVIEWS

Book reviewed in this article:
GEOGRAPHY, ITS SCOPE AND SPIRIT. By J. O. M. Broek
GEOGRAPHY AS HUMAN ECOLOGY: METHODOLOGY BY EXAMPLE. Edited by S. R. Eyre and G. R. J. Jones
A PREFACE TO ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY. By H. H. McCarty and J. B. Lindberg
A PROLOGUE TO POPULATION GEOGRAPHY. By W. Zelinsky     

The Evolution of Sunspot Magnetic Fields Associated with a Solar Flare

Solar flares occur due to the sudden release of energy stored in active-region magnetic fields. To date, the precursors to flaring are still not fully understood, although there is evidence that flaring is related to changes in the topology or complexity of an active-region’s magnetic field. Here, the evolution of the magnetic field in active region NOAA 10953 was examined using Hinode/SOT-SP data over a period of 12 hours leading up to and after a GOES B1.0 flare. A number of magnetic-field properties and low-order aspects of magnetic-field topology were extracted from two flux regions that exhibited increased Ca ii H emission during the flare. Pre-flare increases in vertical field strength, vertical current density, and inclination angle of ≈ 8° toward the vertical were observed in flux elements surrounding the primary sunspot. The vertical field strength and current density subsequently decreased in the post-flare state, with the inclination becoming more horizontal by ≈ 7°. This behavior of the field vector may provide a physical basis for future flare-forecasting efforts.     

Predatory pelagic fishes of the Bijagós Archipelago (Guinea-Bissau) show high overlap in diets dominated by sardinella

Knowledge of trophic interactions between the key components of marine communities is required to understand food-web dynamics and develop ecosystem-based management approaches. In West Africa, where fisheries sustain the livelihoods of a significant part of the human population, this understanding is even more urgent, especially in the face of rapidly expanding fisheries and some stock collapses in the region. We studied the feeding ecology of the Crevalle jack Caranx hippos, West African Spanish mackerel Scomberomorus tritor and Guinean barracuda Sphyraena afra in the Bijagós Archipelago, Guinea-Bissau. These are the most abundant pelagic predatory teleost fishes in the area, but little is known about their ecology despite being species with commercial and recreational value, and they likely also play an important role in various African coastal ecosystems. Our findings show a high degree of dietary overlap among these three predator species, despite some degree of segregation by prey size and type. All three predators depend on Sardinella maderensis as the most important prey, which together with other members of the Clupeidae represented 47–96% of the ingested prey items. There was little difference in the diets of the predators between the dry and rainy seasons. These novel findings suggest a ‘wasp-waist’-structured ecosystem in the Bijagós Archipelago in which S. maderensis is the central small-sized pelagic fish species, and stress the need for an ecosystem-based approach to fisheries management in the region, with precautionary measures taken to avoid the overexploitation of clupeids.     

Solar Flare Prediction Using Advanced Feature Extraction, Machine Learning, and Feature Selection

Novel machine-learning and feature-selection algorithms have been developed to study: i) the flare-prediction-capability of magnetic feature (MF) properties generated by the recently developed Solar Monitor Active Region Tracker (SMART); ii) SMART’s MF properties that are most significantly related to flare occurrence. Spatiotemporal association algorithms are developed to associate MFs with flares from April 1996 to December 2010 in order to differentiate flaring and non-flaring MFs and enable the application of machine-learning and feature-selection algorithms. A machine-learning algorithm is applied to the associated datasets to determine the flare-prediction-capability of all 21 SMART MF properties. The prediction performance is assessed using standard forecast-verification measures and compared with the prediction measures of one of the standard technologies for flare-prediction that is also based on machine-learning: Automated Solar Activity Prediction (ASAP). The comparison shows that the combination of SMART MFs with machine-learning has the potential to achieve more accurate flare-prediction than ASAP. Feature-selection algorithms are then applied to determine the MF properties that are most related to flare occurrence. It is found that a reduced set of six MF properties can achieve a similar degree of prediction accuracy as the full set of 21 SMART MF properties.