Spatial modeling of annual minimum and maximum temperatures in Iceland

Bayesian hierarchical modeling is applied to the analysis of annual minimum and maximum temperatures. In both cases the generalized extreme value distribution is selected as the marginal distribution at each site due to its flexibility and theoretical basis. This distribution has three unknown parameters, a location parameter, a scale parameter and a shape parameter. The location and scale parameters are assumed to vary across sites while the shape parameter is assumed to be the same for all sites. The location and the scale parameters are modeled as two independent Gaussian spatial processes which are governed by the Matérn correlation function. These spatial processes play a central role in spatial predictions at unobserved sites. The location parameter is also modeled with a common time effect which includes a linear trend and a linear site effect with altitude, distance to open sea, latitude and longitude as covariates. This model allows for spatial predictions for any set of unobserved sites, the scale of the grid can be as fine as possible as long as the covariates are observed at each of the unobserved sites. Data on the annual minimum and maximum temperatures in Iceland from 1961 to 2009?at 72 sites are analyzed and used to predict the 2nd percentile of the minimum temperature for the 12-month period from July 2011 to June 2012 and the 98th percentile of maximum temperature for the year 2011 for a large set of unobserved sites across Iceland at which the covariates are available. The spatial predictions reveal that the 2nd percentile of minimum temperature for 2011 to 2012 reaches ?35°C in the central part of Iceland and ranges from ?12 to ?22°C around the coast of Iceland with the lowest coastal temperatures in the Northern part and the Northeastern part. The 98th percentile of maximum temperature in 2011 ranges from 10 to 30°C where the warmest areas are found in the Eastern part, the North-Eastern part and the Southern part of the country. The estimated increase in minimum and maximum temperatures over the years 1961 to 2009 is 0.71 and 0.47°C per decade, respectively, while the average annual temperature increased 0.24°C per decade over the same period.     

Petrology and geochemistry of the 2014–2015 Holuhraun eruption,central Iceland: compositional and mineralogical characteristics,temporal variability and magma storage

The 2014–2015 Holuhraun fissure eruption provided a rare opportunity to study in detail the magmatic processes and magma plumbing system dynamics during a 6-month-long, moderate- to large-volume basaltic fissure eruption. In this contribution, we present a comprehensive dataset, including major and trace elements of whole-rock and glassy tephra samples, mineral chemistry, and radiogenic and oxygen isotope analyses from an extensive set of samples (n?=?62) that were collected systematically in several field campaigns throughout the entire eruptive period. We also present the first detailed chemical and isotopic characterization of magmatic sulfides from Iceland. In conjunction with a unique set of geophysical data, our approach provides a detailed temporal and spatial resolution of magmatic processes before and during this eruption. The 2014–2015 Holuhraun magma is compositionally indistinguishable from recent basalts erupted from the Bárðarbunga volcanic system, consistent with seismic observations for magma ascent close to the Bárðarbunga central volcano, followed by dyke propagation to the Holuhraun eruption site. Whole-rock elemental and isotopic compositions are remarkably constant throughout the eruption. Moreover, the inferred depth of the magma reservoir tapped during the eruption is consistently 8?±?5 km, in agreement with geodetic observations and melt inclusion entrapment pressures, but inconsistent with vertically extensive multi-tiered magma storage prior to eruption. The near constancy in the chemical and isotopic composition of the lava is consistent with the efficient homogenization of mantle-derived compositional variability. In contrast, occurrence of different mineral populations, including sulfide globules, which display significant compositional variability, requires a more complex earlier magmatic history. This may include sampling of heterogeneous mantle melts that mixed, crystallized and finally homogenized at mid- to lower-crustal conditions.     

Diffuse volcanic degassing and thermal energy release from Hengill volcanic system, Iceland

We report the first detailed study of spatial variations on the diffuse emission of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and hydrogen sulfide (H₂S) from Hengill volcanic system, Iceland. Soil CO₂ and H₂S efflux measurements were performed at 752 sampling sites and ranged from nondetectable to 17,666 and 722?g?m^?2?day^?1, respectively. The soil temperature was measured at each sampling site and used to evaluate the heat flow. The chemical composition of soil gases sampled at selected sampling sites during this study shows they result from a mixing process between deep volcanic/hydrothermal component and air. Most of the diffuse CO₂ degassing is observed close to areas where active thermal manifestations occur, northeast flank of the Hengill central volcano close to the Nesjavellir power plant, suggesting a diffuse degassing structure with a SSW?CNNE trend, overlapping main fissure zone and indicating a structural control of the degassing process. On the other hand, H₂S efflux values are in general very low or negligible along the study area, except those observed at the northeast flank of the Hengill central volcano, where anomalously high CO₂ efflux and soil temperatures were also measured. The total diffuse CO₂ emission estimated for this volcanic system was about 1,526?±?160?t?day^?1 of which 453?t?day^?1 (29.7?%) are of volcanic/hydrothermal origin. To calculate the steam discharge associated with the volcanic/hydrothermal CO₂ output, we used the average H₂O/CO₂ mass ratio from 12 fumarole samples equal to 88.6 (range, 9.4?C240.2) as a representative value of the H₂O/CO₂ mass ratios for Hengill fumarole steam. The resulting estimate of the steam flow associated with the gas flux is equal to 40,154?t?day^?1. The condensation of this steam results in thermal energy release for Helgill volcanic system of 1.07?×?10¹⁴?J?day^?1 or to a total heat flow of 1,237?MW_t.     

Modeling discharge rating curves with Bayesian B-splines

River discharges are traditionally modeled by employing a standard power-law methodology. Recently, the Bayesian approached has successfully been applied to improve the estimates of the standard power-law. In this article, an extension to the standard power-law based on Bayesian B-splines is developed and tested on data sets from 61 different rivers. The extended model is evaluated against the standard power-law using two measures, the Deviance Information Criterion and Bayes factor. The extended model captures deviations in the data from the standard power-law but reduces to the standard power-law when that model is adequate. The standard power-law is inadequate for 26% of the rivers while the extended model provides an adequate fit in all of those cases and for the remaining 74% of the rivers the extended model and the power-law model both give adequate fit with almost identical estimates.