Trends and multi‐annual variability of water temperatures in the river Danube,Serbia

The relationship between air (Ta) and water temperature (Tw) is very important because it shows how the temperature of a water body might respond to future changes in surface Ta. Mean monthly Tw records of three gauging stations (Bezdan, Bogojevo i Veliko Gradi?te) were analysed alongside mean monthly discharge (Q) for the same stations. Additionally, Ta series from two meteorological stations (Sombor and Veliko Gradi?te) were correlated with Tw variations over the period 1950–2012. Locally weighted scatter point smoothing (LOWESS) was used to investigate long‐term trends in the raw data, alongside the Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test. Trend significance was established using Yue–Pilon's pre‐whitening approaches to determine trends in climate data. Also, the rescaled adjusted partial sums (RAPS) method was used to detect dates of possible changes in the time series. Statistically significant warming trends were observed for annual and seasonal minimum and maximum Tw at all investigated sites. The strongest warming was observed at Bogojevo gauging station for seasonal maximum Tw, with +0.05 °C per year on average. RAPS established that the trend began in the 1980s. This behaviour is linked to climate patterns in the North and East Atlantic which determine the amount of heat advected onto mainland Europe. Statistically significant correlations were found for all Tw on an annual basis. Overall, the strongest correlations (p < 0.01) between Tw residuals and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were recorded for the winter period. These findings suggest possible predictability of Tw over seasonal time‐scales. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of the 15 July 2009 Fiordland,New Zealand Tsunami in the Source Region

We undertake detailed near-field numerical modelling of the tsunami generated by the 15 July 2009 earthquake (Mw 7.8) in Fiordland, New Zealand. High resolution bathymetry and topography data at Breaksea and Dusky Sounds, and Chalky and Preservation Inlets are derived mostly from digitised New Zealand nautical charts, Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) 3 arc-second data, and General Bathymetric Chart of the Ocean (GEBCO) 30 s data. A combination of continuous and campaign Global Positioning System (GPS), satellite radar (ALOS/PALSAR InSAR images) and seismology data are used to constrain the seafloor deformation for the initial tsunami condition. This source model, derived independently of DART observations, provides an excellent fit to observed tsunami elevations recorded by DART buoy 55015. The model results in the near field show maximum tsunami elevations in the range 0.5–2.0 m inside the sounds and inlets with maximum flow speeds of 3.0 m/s. Along the open coast, maximum tsunami elevations reach 2.0 m. The high flow speeds through the inlets may change the inlet stratifications and water mass inside the sounds. Media reports and field reconnaissance data show some tsunami evidence at Cormorant Cove, Duck and Goose Coves, and Passage Point.     

Present and future Laurentian Great Lakes hydroclimatic conditions as simulated by regional climate models with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron

Regional climate modelling represents an appealing approach to projecting Great Lakes water supplies under a changing climate. In this study, we investigate the response of the Great Lakes Basin to increasing greenhouse gas and aerosols emissions using an ensemble of sixteen climate change simulations generated by three different Regional Climate Models (RCMs): CRCM4, HadRM3 and WRFG. Annual and monthly means of simulated hydro-meteorological variables that affect Great Lakes levels are first compared to observation-based estimates. The climate change signal is then assessed by computing differences between simulated future (2041–2070) and present (1971–1999) climates. Finally, an analysis of the annual minima and maxima of the Net Basin Supply (NBS), derived from the simulated NBS components, is conducted using Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Results reveal notable model differences in simulated water budget components throughout the year, especially for the lake evaporation component. These differences are reflected in the resulting NBS. Although uncertainties in observation-based estimates are quite large, our analysis indicates that all three RCMs tend to underestimate NBS in late summer and fall, which is related to biases in simulated runoff, lake evaporation, and over-lake precipitation. The climate change signal derived from the total ensemble mean indicates no change in future mean annual NBS. However, our analysis suggests an amplification of the NBS annual cycle and an intensification of the annual NBS minima in future climate. This emphasizes the need for an adaptive management of water to minimize potential negative implications associated with more severe and frequent NBS minima.     

Microcrystals of Th-rich monazite (La) with a negative Ce anomaly in metadiorite and their role for documenting Cretaceous metamorphism in the Slavonian Mountains (Croatia)

Microcrystals (1–15 μm) of unusual monazite (La) with 41–47 mol% cheralite [ThCa(PO₄)₂] component and a strong negative Ce anomaly are described from a metadiorite from the SW Slavonian Mountains, Psunj, Croatia. The dioritic host rock still shows a relictic igneous fabric on macroscopic scale. However, metamorphic reaction textures can be recognized in thin section. These include partial recrystallization of igneous plagioclase to albite coupled with the formation of epidote. Furthermore, partial replacement of igneous hornblende by a fine-grained orthoamphibole-chamosite-epidote paragenesis can be observed and replacement of ilmenite by titanite. The compositions of the metamorphic minerals indicate upper greenschist facies conditions (460–500 °C according to two-feldspar geothermometry) under a high oxygen fugacity. Microstructures show that the monazite crystals belong to the metamorphic paragenesis and formed at the expense of magmatic allanite. Their negative Ce anomalies reflect the oxidizing conditions of metamorphism. Application of the xenotime in monazite solvus geothermometer provides unrealistically high temperatures of ~500–660 °C which disagree with the greenschist facies metamorphic paragenesis. We interpret that the presence of cheralite has a profound effect on the nature of the monazite-xenotime solvus curve and hence the existing calibrations of this geothermometer may be generally unsuitable for cheralite-rich monazite. An important geological result is that the Th-U-total Pb ages of the monazite grains are uniformingly Upper Cretaceous. Our data thus suggest that the imprint of the Alpine orogeny on the Slavonian Mountains was stronger than presumed until now.     

Using multiresolution and multitemporal satellite data for post-disaster landslide inventory in the Republic of Serbia

This paper focuses on a specific event-based landslide inventory compiled after the May 2014 heavy rainfall episode in Serbia as a part of the post-disaster recovery actions. The inventory was completed for a total of 23 affected municipalities, and the municipality of Krupanj was selected as the location for a more detailed study. Three sources of data collection and analysis were used: a visual analysis of the post-event very high and high (VHR-HR) resolution images (Pléiades, WorldView-2 and SPOT 6), semi-automatic landslide recognition in pre- and post-event coarse resolution images (Landsat 8) and a landslide mapping field campaign. The results suggest that the visual and semi-automated analyses significantly contributed to the quality of the final inventory, including the associated planning strategies for conducting future field campaigns (as a final stage of the inventorying process), all the more so because the field-based and image-based inventories were focused on different types of landslides. In the most affected municipalities that had very high resolution satellite image coverage (19.52% of the whole study area), the density of the recognized landslides was approximately three times higher than that in those municipalities without satellite image coverage (where only field data were available). The total number of field-mapped landslides for the 23 municipalities was 1785, while image-based inventories, which were available only for the municipalities with satellite image coverage (77.43% of the study area), showed 1298 landslide records. The semi-automated landslide inventory in the test area (Krupanj municipality), which was based on coarse resolution multitemporal images (Landsat 8), counted 490 landslide instances and was in agreement with the visual analysis of the higher resolution images, with an overlap of approximately 40%. These results justify the use of preliminary inventorying via satellite image analysis and suggest a considerable potential use for preliminary visual and semi-automated landslide inventorying as an important supplement to field mapping.     

Factors triggering landslide occurrence on the Zemun loess plateau,Belgrade area,Serbia

Among the numerous factors that trigger landslide events, the anthropogenic impact caused by inadequate planning and faulty land use in urban areas is increasing. The Zemun settlement on the northern outskirts of Belgrade has experienced a number of landslides in the last three decades, endangering buildings and roads, and claiming human lives, particularly in the case of the 2010/2011 landslides. Selected meteorological parameters were used to calculate rainfall erosivity indices such as Precipitation Concentration Index and Modified Fournier Index over the period 1991–2015. Drought indices, Lang aridity index and Palfai Drought Index were calculated as well. Mann–Kendall trend test was applied to identify potential rising and/or declining trends both in meteorological parameters and calculated indices. Trend analysis of the annual and seasonal scales yielded a statistically significant trend in the spring time series. Stable arid and pronounced drought conditions were recorded. The modified Fournier index based on monthly mean values yields moderate aggressiveness, with several extreme values indicating very high erosivity classes, especially for 2010/2011. The geological substrate is predominantly loess and hence highly susceptible to erosion and slope failure when climatological conditions are suitable. Accelerated urbanization at the end of the last century reduced vegetation cover, intensified pressure on the vertical loess slope, and lacked suitable rain drainage systems so that surface-water runoff was directed into the porous loess, thereby endangering slope stability. We proposed a geomorphic model to describe the nature of the erosional processes on the loess cliffs of the Zemun loess plateau. Results from this study have implications for mitigation strategies.