Effect of spatial variation characteristics on contouring of design storm depth

The ordinary kriging method, a geostatistical interpolation technique, was applied for developing contour maps of design storm depth in northern Taiwan using intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) data. Results of variogram modelling on design storm depths indicate that the design storms can be categorized into two distinct storm types: (i) storms of short duration and high spatial variation and (ii) storms of long duration and less spatial variation. For storms of the first category, the influence range of rainfall depth decreases when the recurrence interval increases, owing to the increasing degree of their spatial independence. However, for storms of the second category, the influence range of rainfall depth does not change significantly and has an average of approximately 72 km. For very extreme events, such as events of short duration and long recurrence interval, we do not recommend usage of the established design storm contours, because most of the interstation distances exceed the influence ranges. Our study concludes that the influence range of the design storm depth is dependent on the design duration and recurrence interval and is a key factor in developing design storm contours. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The political ecology of Prunus africana in Cameroon

This paper provides an analysis of some current trends in political ecology and then illustrates the intermingling of politics and ecology using a case study of the exploitation and conservation of Prunus africana in Cameroon. It argues that political ecology is still a lively field, but that some recent attempts to chart a way forward for this perspective risk shifting it away from its liminal position in relation to natural and social science by being disinclined to engage with ecological processes. The case study draws attention to the strengths and shortcomings in existing attempts to weave political and economic analysis into environmental debates over the sustainable management of this tree species, which has been incorporated into phytomedical markets in Europe. The fortunes of the tree reflect its botany and ecology as well as the trajectories of the local economy, intercontinental markets for alternative health products, the policies and practices of the Cameroonian state and the politics of international aid.     

Geology and Lead–Sulphur Isotope Compositions of the Tongyu Volcanic-Hosted Massive Sulphide Copper Deposit in the Western Part of the North Qinling Orogen, China

The Tongyu copper deposit, located in the western part of the North Qinling Orogen, China, is one of several volcanic-hosted massive sulphide(VHMS) deposits with industrial value and is also a typical example of mineralization related to the subduction and metallogenesis during the Caledonian orogeny. We conducted systematic lead-sulphur isotope geochemical analyses of the Tongyu deposit to understand the possible ore-forming material sources and tectonic settings. Twenty-six sulphide samples yielded clustered δ~(34)S_(CDT) values of 1.13‰-3.36‰, average 2.22‰, and show a tower-type distribution,implying that the sulphur of the Tongyu copper deposit mainly originated from a mantle source. The Pb isotope compositions of sulphides(~(206)Pb/~(204)Pb = 17.59225-18.56354, average 18.32020; ~(207)Pb/~(204)Pb =15.51770-15.69381, average 15.66217; ~(208)Pb/~(204)Pb= 37.99969-39.06953, average 38.52722) are close to the values of the volcanic host rocks(~(206)Pb/~(204)Pb= 18.10678-18.26293, average 18.21158; ~(207)Pb/~(204)Pb =15.63196-15.68188, average 15.65345; ~(208)Pb/~(204)Pb= 38.43676-38.56360, average 38.49171), thus consistent with the Pb in ores and volcanic host rocks having been derived from a common source that was island-arc Pb related to oceanic crust subduction. The northward subduction of the Palaeo-Qinling oceanic crust triggered dehydration of the slab, which generated a large amount of high-oxygen-fugacity aqueous hydrothermal fluid. The fluid rose into the mantle wedge, activated and extracted metallogenic material and promoted partial melting of the mantle wedge. The magma and ore-forming fluid welled up and precipitated, finally forming the Tongyu VHMS copper deposit.     

一次梅雨锋结构及锋区强度对锋面结构影响的数值模拟

利用中尺度模式MM5对1999年6月下旬发生在长江中下游地区的一次锋上西南低涡发展的梅雨锋暴雨过程进行了研究。通过敏感性试验, 探讨了低涡对锋强、 锋生的敏感性, 锋生、 锋消与低涡发展演变的时间空间上的联系等问题\.结果表明, 低涡对中层锋面强度的变化敏感, 中层锋强发生改变会导致整层涡度发生同位相的变化。中层系统对梅雨锋气旋的发展起主要作用, 中层锋面对低涡发展的影响比边界层锋更关键。中层锋面强度改变会激发出中低层的垂直次级环流, 低层的辐合上升运动发生改变, 最终影响到低涡强度的发展。敏感性试验证明, 锋面强度变化对低涡发展造成的影响有超前性, 中层锋面先发生变化, 6 h左右以后低涡强度发生改变。锋区强度和低涡强度发生变化的地理位置基本在同一经度上, 锋强变化的位置在涡强变化位置的北面。     

山东海阳断裂东石兰沟段晚更新世以来地表断错特征与最大潜在地震估计

海阳断裂是胶东半岛NE向牟平 -即墨断裂带东部一条规模较大的断裂 ,尽管晚更新世以来该断裂的地表断错活动总体上已基本停息 ,但东石兰沟段在晚更新世晚期以来仍有断错地表的活动。最后一次断错地表的活动发生在距今 3 7～ 1 2万年 ,但接近 1 2万年。地表破裂长度约6 5km ,活动段长度 8km。地表断错以走滑活动为主 ,可见最大倾滑位移 0 2m ;根据断层擦痕侧伏角推测最大水平位移 1 13m。最后一次断错地表的活动若以距今 1 2万年计算 ,则最大平均倾滑速率为 0 0 17mm/a ;最大平均右旋走滑速率为 0 0 94mm/a。野外观测到该活动段的断错活动表现为突发断错 ,根据地震地表破裂参数、活动段长度与地震的关系 ,估计其最大潜在地震为 6 级     

Further comments concerning “geographic” and “economic” economic geography

This article considers whether the growing theoretical and methodological diversity or pluralistic nature of economic geography contributes to its lack of engagement outside the discipline and academy. Although we are enthusiastic about the vibrancy this pluralism brings, we also speculate that it contributes to the discipline's tendency to fall short of significantly impacting key debates in the social sciences. In particular, we consider the disciplinary challenges to influencing mainstream debates over financialization and the recent financial crisis and the recurring lament that economic geography “misses the boat” by failing to significantly impact key scholarly and policy issues. Specifically, we suggest that methodological and theoretical diversity, local contextualization, and relational analysis, all of which we support as vital to the discipline, make it difficult to isolate a disciplinary core. We conclude that pluralism produces a vibrant discipline with unique explanatory power but that it also has important impacts on the design, execution, and influence of geographers’ research outside the discipline.     

Assessing future risk: quantifying the effects of sea level rise on storm surge risk for the southern shores of Long Island, New York

Sea level rise threatens to increase the impacts of future storms and hurricanes on coastal communities. However, many coastal hazard mitigation plans do not consider sea level rise when assessing storm surge risk. Here we apply a GIS-based approach to quantify potential changes in storm surge risk due to sea level rise on Long Island, New York. We demonstrate a method for combining hazard exposure and community vulnerability to spatially characterize risk for both present and future sea level conditions using commonly available national data sets. Our results show that sea level rise will likely increase risk in many coastal areas and will potentially create risk where it was not before. We find that even modest and probable sea level rise (.5 m by 2080) vastly increases the numbers of people (47% increase) and property loss (73% increase) impacted by storm surge. In addition, the resulting maps of hazard exposure and community vulnerability provide a clear and useful example of the visual representation of the spatial distribution of the components of risk that can be helpful for developing targeted hazard mitigation and climate change adaptation strategies. Our results suggest that coastal agencies tasked with managing storm surge risk must consider the effects of sea level rise if they are to ensure safe and sustainable coastal communities in the future.     

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts,adaptation and vulnerability research

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.