Dynamics of the long-period tides

The long-period tides are a tool for understanding oceanic motions at low frequencies and large scales. Here we review observations and theory of the fortnightly, monthly and pole tide constitutents. Observations have been plagued by low signal-to-noise ratios and theory by the complex lateral geometry and great sensitivity to bottom slopes. A new spectral element model is used to compute the oceanic response to tidal forcing at 2-week and monthly periods. The general response is that of a heavily damped (Q ≈ 5) system with both the energy input from the moon and the dissipation strongly localized in space. The high dissipation result is probably generally applicable to all low frequency barotropic oceanic motions. Over much of the ocean, the response has both the character of a large-scale and a superposed Rossby wave-like character, thus vindicating two apparently conflicting earlier interpretations. To the extent that free waves are excited they are consistent with their being dominated by Rossby and topographic Rossby wave components, although gravity modes are also necessarily excited to some degree. In general, a modal representation is not very helpful. The most active regions are the Southern Ocean and the western and northern North Atlantic. These results are stable to changes in geometry, topography, and tide period. On a global average basis, the dynamical response of Mm is closer to equilibrium than is Mf.     

Abrupt climate change: An alternative view

Hypotheses and inferences concerning the nature of abrupt climate change, exemplified by the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, are reviewed. There is little concrete evidence that these events are more than a regional Greenland phenomenon. The partial coherence of ice core δ¹⁸O and CH₄ is a possible exception. Claims, however, of D-O presence in most remote locations cannot be distinguished from the hypothesis that many regions are just exhibiting temporal variability in climate proxies with approximately similar frequency content. Further suggestions that D-O events in Greenland are generated by shifts in the North Atlantic ocean circulation seem highly implausible, given the weak contribution of the high latitude ocean to the meridional flux of heat. A more likely scenario is that changes in the ocean circulation are a consequence of wind shifts. The disappearance of D-O events in the Holocene coincides with the disappearance also of the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets. It is thus suggested that D-O events are a consequence of interactions of the windfield with the continental ice sheets and that better understanding of the wind field in the glacial periods is the highest priority. Wind fields are capable of great volatility and very rapid global-scale teleconnections, and they are efficient generators of oceanic circulation changes and (more speculatively) of multiple states relative to great ice sheets. Connection of D-O events to the possibility of modern abrupt climate change rests on a very weak chain of assumptions.     

Recent trends in vegetation dynamics in the African Sahel and their relationship to climate

Contrary to assertions of widespread irreversible desertification in the African Sahel, a recent increase in seasonal greenness over large areas of the Sahel has been observed, which has been interpreted as a recovery from the great Sahelian droughts. This research investigates temporal and spatial patterns of vegetation greenness and rainfall variability in the African Sahel and their interrelationships based on analyses of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series for the period 1982–2003 and gridded satellite rainfall estimates. While rainfall emerges as the dominant causative factor for the increase in vegetation greenness, there is evidence of another causative factor, hypothetically a human-induced change superimposed on the climate trend.     

Simulation of a Stably Stratified Atmospheric Boundary Layer Using One-Dimensional Turbulence

One-dimensional turbulence (ODT) is a single-column simulation in which vertical motions are represented by an unsteady advective process, rather than their customary representation by a diffusive process. No space or time averaging of mesh-resolved motions is invoked. Molecular-transport scales can be resolved in ODT simulations of laboratory-scale flows, but this resolution of these scales is prohibitively expensive in ODT simulations of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), except possibly in small subregions of a non-uniform mesh.Here, two methods for ODT simulation of the ABL on uniform meshes are described and applied to the GABLS (GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study; GEWEX is the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) stable boundary-layer intercomparison case. One method involves resolution of the roughness scale using a fixed eddy viscosity to represent subgrid motions. The other method, which is implemented at lower spatial resolution, involves a variable eddy viscosity determined by the local mesh-resolved flow, as in multi-dimensional large-eddy simulation (LES). When run at typical LES resolution, it reproduces some of the key high-resolution results, but its fidelity is lower in some important respects. It is concluded that a more elaborate empirically based representation of the subgrid physics, closely analogous to closures currently employed in LES of the ABL, might improve its performance substantially, yielding a cost-effective ABL simulation tool. Prospects for further application of ODT to the ABL, including possible use of ODT as a near-surface subgrid closure framework for general circulation modeling, are assessed.     

The Centurion 18 telescope of the Wise Observatory

We describe the second telescope of the Wise Observatory, a 0.46-m Centurion 18 (C18) installed in 2005, which enhances significantly the observing possibilities. The telescope operates from a small dome and is equipped with a large-format CCD camera. In the last two years this telescope was intensively used in a variety of monitoring projects. The operation of the C18 is now automatic, requiring only start-up at the beginning of a night and close-down at dawn. The observations are mostly performed remotely from the Tel Aviv campus or even from the observer’s home. The entire facility was erected for a component cost of about 70k$ and a labor investment of a total of one man-year. We describe three types of projects undertaken with this new facility: the measurement of asteroid light variability with the purpose of determining physical parameters and binarity, the following-up of transiting extrasolar planets, and the study of AGN variability. The successful implementation of the C18 demonstrates the viability of small telescopes in an age of huge light-collectors, provided the operation of such facilities is very efficient.     

Single-Column Model Intercomparison for a Stably Stratified Atmospheric Boundary Layer

The parameterization of the stably stratified atmospheric boundary layer is a difficult issue, having a significant impact on medium-range weather forecasts and climate integrations. To pursue this further, a moderately stratified Arctic case is simulated by nineteen single-column turbulence schemes. Statistics from a large-eddy simulation intercomparison made for the same case by eleven different models are used as a guiding reference. The single-column parameterizations include research and operational schemes from major forecast and climate research centres. Results from first-order schemes, a large number of turbulence kinetic energy closures, and other models were used. There is a large spread in the results; in general, the operational schemes mix over a deeper layer than the research schemes, and the turbulence kinetic energy and other higher-order closures give results closer to the statistics obtained from the large-eddy simulations. The sensitivities of the schemes to the parameters of their turbulence closures are partially explored.     

Combination of TOPEX/POSEIDON data with a hydrographic inversion for determination of the oceanic general circulation and its relation to geoid accuracy

A global estimate of the absolute oceanic general circulation from a geostrophic inversion of in situ hydrographic data is tested against and then combined with an estimate obtained from TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetric data and a geoid model computed using the JGM-3 gravity-field solution. Within the quantitative uncertainties of both the hydrographic inversion and the geoid estimate, the two estimates derived by very different methods are consistent. When the in situ inversion is combined with the altimetry/geoid scheme using a recursive inverse procedure, a new solution, fully consistent with both hydrography and altimetry, is found. There is, however, little reduction in the uncertainties of the calculated ocean circulation and its mass and heat fluxes because the best available geoid estimate remains noisy relative to the purely oceano-graphic inferences. The conclusion drawn from this is that the comparatively large errors present in the existing geoid models now limit the ability of satellite altimeter data to improve directly the general ocean circulation models derived from in situ measurements. Because improvements in the geoid could be realized through a dedicated spaceborne gravity recovery mission, the impact of hypothetical much better, future geoid estimates on the circulation uncertainty is also quantified, showing significant hypothetical reductions in the uncertainties of oceanic transport calculations, Full ocean general circulation models could better exploit both existing oceanographic data and future gravity-mission data, but their present use is severely limited by the inability to quantify their error budgets.     

Towards the general circulation of the North Atlantic ocean

After reviewing the inverse method, we apply it to deducing the general circulation of the North Atlantic ocean. We argue that the method is purely classical in nature, being nothing more than a mathematical statement of the principles upon which nearly all previous circulation schemes have been based. The ‘smoothed’ solution is shown to represent the components of the flow field that are determinable independently of the initial reference level. We then produce two circulation schemes based upon two different initial reference levels — 2000 decibars and the bottom — called North Atlantic-1A and North Atlantic-1B respectively. The models share many features in common and are strikingly similar to several previous schemes, most notably those of Jacobsen and Defant in the region west of Bermuda. No simple level-of-no-motion emerges in the flow fields; rather the velocity sections exhibit a complex cellular structure. Zonally integrated meridional cells of models and of the uniquely determined components are very similar, showing a poleward movement of warm saline water compensated at depth by a return flow of cold, fresher water. The magnitudes of the implied polar sea overflows and the heat fluxes are in good agreement with previous estimates. Finally, it is argued that neither these model circulations nor any other circulation pattern based upon the existing data can be regarded as actually representing the true time average ocean circulation because the data are aliased in time; the frequency/wavenumber spectrum of the ocean is inadequately known to determine the resulting errors.