Integrated methodology for flood risk assessment and application in urban communities of Pakistan

Flood disasters and its consequent damages are on the rise globally. Pakistan has been experiencing an increase in flood frequency and severity along with resultant damages in the past. In addition to the regular practices of loss and damage estimation, current focus is on risk assessment of hazard-prone communities. Risk measurement is complex as scholars engaged in disaster science and management use different quantitative models with diverse interpretations. This study tries to provide clarity in conceptualizing disaster risk and proposes a risk assessment methodology with constituent components such as hazard, vulnerability (exposure and sensitivity) and coping/adaptive capacity. Three communities from different urban centers in Pakistan have been selected based on high flood frequency and intensity. A primary survey was conducted in selected urban communities to capture data on a number of variables relating to flood hazard, vulnerability and capacity to compute flood risk index. Households were categorized into different risk levels, such as can manage risk, can survive and cope, and cannot cope. It was found that risk levels varied significantly across the households of the three communities. Metropolitan city was found to be highly vulnerable as compared to smaller cities due to weak capacity. Households living in medium town had devised coping mechanisms to manage risk. The proposed methodology is tested and found operational for risk assessment of flood-prone areas and communities irrespective of locations and countries.     

Anisotropic universe with cosmic strings and bulk viscosity

Spatially homogeneous and anisotropic LRS Bianchi type-I string cosmological models are studied in the frame work of general relativity when the source for the energy momentum tensor is a bulk viscous fluid containing one dimensional strings. A barotropic equation of state for the pressure and density is assumed to get determinate solutions of the field equations. The bulk viscous pressure is assumed to be proportional to the energy density. The physical and kinematical properties of the models are discussed. The role of bulk viscosity in getting an inflationary phase in the universe is studied.     

Hypsometric analysis of Shakkar river catchment through geographical information system

Hypsometric analysis of watershed (area-elevation analysis) has generally been used to reveal the stages of geomorphic development (stabilized, mature and young). The geologic stages of development and proneness of the watersheds for erosion are quantified by hypsometric integral. The estimation of hypsometric integral is carried out from the graphical plot of the measured contour elevation and encompassed area by using empirical formulae. In this study, efforts were made to estimate the hypsometric integral values of Shakkar river watershed which is a tributary of Narmada river located in Madhya Pradesh. The watershed was delineated into eight sub-watersheds and hypsometric analysis was carried out for all of them using digital contour maps, which was generated using Arc/Info GIS. The hypsometric integral values for all the sub-watersheds of Shakkar river ranges between 0.47 and 0.51. In the study area, only mature stage of erosion cycle is identified.     

Impact of Doppler weather radar data on thunderstorm simulation during STORM pilot phase—2009

This study assesses the impact of Doppler weather radar (DWR) data (reflectivity and radial wind) assimilation on the simulation of severe thunderstorms (STS) events over the Indian monsoon region. Two different events that occurred during the Severe Thunderstorms Observations and Regional Modeling (STORM) pilot phase in 2009 were simulated. Numerical experiments—3DV (assimilation of DWR observations) and CNTL (without data assimilation)—were conducted using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation technique with the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-ARW). The results show that consistent with prior studies the 3DV experiment, initialized by assimilation of DWR observations, performed better than the CNTL experiment over the Indian region. The enhanced performance was a result of improved representation and simulation of wind and moisture fields in the boundary layer at the initial time in the model. Assimilating DWR data caused higher moisture incursion and increased instability, which led to stronger convective activity in the simulations. Overall, the dynamic and thermodynamic features of the two thunderstorms were consistently better simulated after ingesting DWR data, as compared to the CNTL simulation. In the 3DV experiment, higher instability was observed in the analyses of thermodynamic indices and equivalent potential temperature (θ _e) fields. Maximum convergence during the mature stage was also noted, consistent with maximum vertical velocities in the assimilation experiment (3DV). In addition, simulated hydrometeor (water vapor mixing ratio, cloud water mixing ratio, and rain water mixing ratio) structures improved with the 3DV experiment, compared to that of CNTL. From the higher equitable threat scores, it is evident that the assimilation of DWR data enhanced the skill in rainfall prediction associated with the STS over the Indian monsoon region. These results add to the body of evidence now which provide consistent and notable improvements in the mesoscale model results over the Indian monsoon region after assimilating DWR fields.     

Residual Exchange Flows in Subtropical Estuaries

Observations of residual exchange flows at the entrance to four subtropical estuaries, two of them semiarid, indicate that these flows are mainly tidally driven, as they compare favorably with theoretical patterns of tidal residual flows. In every estuary examined, the tidal behavior was that of a standing or near-standing wave, i.e., tidal elevation and tidal currents were nearly in quadrature. The pattern of exchange flow that persisted at every estuary exhibited inflow in the channel and outflow over the shoals. Curiously, but also fortuitously, this pattern coincides with the exchange pattern driven by density gradients in other estuaries. The tidal stresses and the residual elevation slopes should be the dominant mechanisms that drive such tidal residual pattern because the Stokes transport mechanism is negligible for standing or near-standing waves. Time series measurements from the semiarid estuaries showed fortnightly modulation of the residual flow by tidal forcing in such a way that the strongest net exchange flows developed with the largest tidal distortions, i.e., during spring tides. This modulation is opposite to the modulation that typically results in temperate estuaries, where the strongest net exchange flows tend to develop during neap tides. The fortnightly modulation on tidal residual currents could be inferred from previous theoretical results because residual currents arise from tidal distortions but is made explicit in this study. The findings advanced herein should allow the drawing of generalities about exchange flow patterns in subtropical estuaries where residual flows are mainly driven by tides.     

On conformity of the EEJ based ionospheric model to the fountain effect and resulting improvements

The total electron content (TEC) of the equatorial ionosphere is controlled by photochemical processes as well as the transport of the ionospheric plasma near the magnetic equator. The transport phenomenon is initiated by the vertical drift driven by the eastward electric field, which also drives the Equatorial Electrojet. The empirical relation between the Equatorial Electrojet and the anomaly component of the equatorial TEC has already been established. Taking this relation as a reference, a simplified physical model of the anomaly component of equatorial TEC is obtained as a function of Equatorial Electrojet. Influence of other factors like the solar incidence angle and the solar flux are also considered here and the extent of their influence are also investigated. This has been done using TEC data obtained from dual frequency GPS receivers during the low solar activity period of 2005. The derived model is based on the physics of the underlying fountain effect and matches with the observed empirical relation to a fair extent. Obtained results are found to corroborate with previous findings and these physical model values are found to have improved correlation with the observed data than the reference empirical relation. This establishes the conformity between the EEJ based ionospheric model and the physical phenomenon of the fountain effect.     

Comparison of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon distributions and sedimentary organic matter characteristics in contaminated, coastal sediments from Pensacola Bay, Florida

In this study, we examined the distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in a contaminated coastal area and the characteristics of the natural organic matter in tandem. We present a detailed study of PAH concentration, distribution, and organic matter characteristics of three core samples from Pensacola Bay, Florida. Solid-state 13C Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR), pyrolysis gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry (GC-MS), and tetramethyl ammonium hydroxide (TMAH) thermochemolysis GC-MS were applied to obtain structural details about the sedimentary organic matter. Elemental compositions (carbon and nitrogen) and estimates of black carbon contents are also reported. These coastal sediments were found to contain more PAHs in the upper 15 cm layers than in the bottom 15-25 cm samples. The samples that contained the most PAHs also contained the least amount of aromatic carbon and contained a significant amount of paraffinic carbon. Lignin-derived pyrolysis and TMAH thermochemolysis products were abundant and generally higher in all of the samples in comparison to those reported for modern coastal sediments, indicating a large flux of terrestrial carbon. The black carbon contents were found to range from 4.3% to 6.8%, which are significantly lower than other reports of black carbon in sediments, which represent as much as 65% of the total organic carbon content. The low black carbon content suggests that this type of refractory carbon may not be as responsible for regulating PAH distribution as indicated by other researchers.     

Analysis of Circular Elastic Plate Resting on Pasternak Foundation by Strain Energy Approach

In this paper, an analytical expression for the deflection of a thin circular elastic plate resting on the Pasternak foundation is derived by adopting the strain energy approach. The parametric study is carried out to observe the location of the plate lift-off and the variation of the deflection profiles for comparing the variation pattern reported in the literature based on an approximate solution technique. It is found that the radial distance of the point of lift-off of the plate decreases with increase in the values of both the shear modulus and the modulus of subgrade reaction of the foundation soil; the reduction being more for their lower values. It is also observed that the variation in deflection of the plate at any radial distance due to change in soil subgrade conditions is significant for lower values of modulus of subgrade reaction.     

Correcting lateral boundary biases in regional climate modelling: the effect of the relaxation zone

Climate Dynamics - Regional climate models (RCM) are an important tool for simulating atmospheric information at finer resolutions often of greater relevance to local scale climate change impact...