Lake Neor reveals how mountain vegetation responded to 7000 years of hydroclimate variability in northwestern Iran

Palynological and geochemical analyses provide valuable information about modern and past climatic regimes and vegetation. The impact of climate and humans on past vegetation in the semi-arid areas of northwestern Iran has received increased interest in the wake of warming temperatures in the Middle East. Palynological and down-core XRF elemental abundances from a peat core from Lake Neor enabled a reconstruction of vegetational changes of the past 7000 years over the highlands of northwestern Iran. Periods of increased arboreal pollen (AP) types and high (Artemisia + Poaceae)/Chenopodiaceae ratios along with low titanium abundances, high percentages of total organic carbon, more negative δD values, and higher carbon accumulation rates suggest a relatively wet climate. These conditions have persisted during the periods 6700–6200, 5200–4450 and 3200–2200 cal a bp. The overall low AP values, substantial rise of Chenopodiaceae, high Ti abundances and low values of palaeo-redox proxies, are all evidences of a drier climate, as has been reconstructed for the periods 6200–5200 and 4030–3150 cal a bp and the last 2200 years. An important feature of the last centuries is the increase of anthropogenic and pastoral indicator pollen types. Our results may provide basic data to predict future trends in vegetation dynamics under future climate change in western Asia.     

Behavior of Shallow Strip Footing on Twin Voids

This paper numerically examines the bearing capacity and failure mechanism of a shallow strip foundation constructed above twin voids. The voids may refer to caves, caverns, underground aqueduct or tunnels due to water seepage, chemical reaction or deliberately excavated in soil deposit. The ability of numerical model to accurately predict the system behavior is evaluated by performing verification analyses on existing researches. Subsequently, a parametric study carried out to reveal the influence of size of footing/voids and their location (i.e. depth, spacing, eccentricity) on the bearing capacity of footing. To clarify the failure mechanism, the distribution of shear strain in the soil for different scenarios is assessed. The parametric study provided a new framework to determine the bearing capacity and the mode of failure for footings on voids. Based on the results, a criterion can be issued to avoid collapse of footing/voids regarding the shape, location and size of voids. The results can also be used to design construction of a footing on existing voids while the acquired failure mechanisms can be appointed to develop analytical solutions for this problem. Results demonstrated that a critical depth for voids and a critical distance between them exist where the influence on the ultimate bearing capacity of footing disappears.     

Monitoring and prediction of land use/land cover changes using CA-Markov model: a case study of Ravansar County in Iran

Human‐induced land use/land cover (LULC) changes are among the most important processes that shape the dynamics of the earth’s surface. This phenomenon, which is occurring at an astonishing rate, and its consequential environmental impacts have become an important area of research for scientists.Therefore, a wide range of methods and models have been developed to detect and predict these alterations, among which cellular automata (CA) models such as the CA‐Markov model, due to their affinity to geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS), are appropriate for detailed resolution modelling and simulating dynamic spatial processes. In Iran, the district of Ravansar has undergone severe LULC changes recently, thus to take the necessary precautions, decision‐makers need to predict and determine the extent of these changes. In this study, using spatial analysis methods the LULC changes in Ravansar were investigated from 1992 to 2015. Subsequently, the CA‐Markov model was applied to simulate the spatial pattern changes of LULC until 2030. Our results indicated that from 1992 to 2015, this region has witnessed a noticeable increase in the areas of the built‐up and agricultural lands (both aquatic and non‐aquatic), resulting in the decrease of the gardens, range, and bare lands. The simulated LULC map showed that this trend will continue due to more urbanization and development of agricultural areas.     

Using uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for finding the best rainfall-runoff model in mountainous watersheds(Case study: the Navrood watershed in Iran)

In watersheds that have not sufficient meteorological and hydrometric data for simulating rainfall-runoff events, using geomorphologic and geomorphoclimatic characteristics of watershed is a conventional method for the simulation. A number of rainfall-runoff models utilize these characteristics such as Nash-IUH, Clark-IUH, Geomorphologic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph(GIUH), Geomorphoclimatic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph(GcIUH), GIUH-based Nash(GIUH-Nash) and GcIUH-based Clark(GcIUH-Clark). But all these models are not appropriate for mountainous watersheds. Therefore, the objective of this study is to select the best of them for the simulation. The procedure of this study is: a) selecting appropriate rainfall-runoff events for calibration and validation of six hybrid models, b) distinguishing the best model based on different performance criteria(Percentage Error in Volume(PEV); Percentage Error in Peak(PEP); Percentage Error in Time to Peak(PETP); Root Mean Square Error(RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient(ENS)), c) Sensitivity analysis for determination of the most effective parameter at each model, d) Uncertainty determination of different parameters in each model and confirmation of the obtained results by application of the performance criteria. For application of this procedure, the Navrood watershed in the north of Iran as a mountainous watershed has been considered. The results showed that the ClarkIUH and GcIUH-Clark are suitable models for simulation of flood hydrographs, while other models cannot simulate flood hydrographs appropriately. The sensitivity analysis shows that the most sensitive parameters are the infiltration constant rate and time of concentration in the Clark-IUH model. Also, the most sensitive parameters include the infiltration constant rate and storage coefficient in the GcIUHClark model. The Clark-IUH and GcIUH-Clark models are more sensitive to their parameters. The Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS) on Monte Carlo(MC) simulation method was used for evaluation of uncertainty of data in rainfall-runoff models. In this method 500 sets of data values are produced and then the peak discharge of flood hydrographs for each produced data set is simulated with rainfall-runoff models. The uncertainty of data changes the value of simulated peak discharge of flood hydrograph. The uncertainty analysis shows that the observed peak discharges of different rainfall-runoff events are within the range of values of simulated by the six hybrid rainfall-runoff models and IUH that inputs of these models were the produced data sets. The range of the produced peak discharge of flood hydrographs by the Clark-IUH and GcIUH-Clark models is wider than those of other models.     

Free Vibration Analysis of Symmetrically Laminated Composite Plates on Elastic Foundation and Coupled with Stationary Fluid

Free vibration analysis of symmetrically laminated composite plates resting on Pasternak elastic support and coupled with an ideal, incompressible and inviscid fluid is the objective of the present work. The fluid domain is considered to be infinite in the length direction but bounded in the depth and width directions. In order to derive the eigenvalue equation, Rayleigh-Ritz method is applied for the fluid-plate-foundation system. The efficiency of the method is proved by comparison studies with those reported in the open literature. At the end, parametric studies are carried out to examine the impact of different parameters on the natural frequencies.     

SWAT‐simulated hydrological impact of land‐use change in the Zanjanrood basin,Northwest Iran

Understanding the impacts of land‐use changes on hydrology at the watershed scale can facilitate development of sustainable water resource strategies. This paper investigates the hydrological effects of land‐use change in Zanjanrood basin, Iran. The water balance was simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (AVSWAT2000). Model calibration and uncertainty analysis were performed with sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI‐2). Simulation results from January 1998 to December 2002 were used for parameter calibration, and then the model was validated for the period of January 2003 to December 2004. The predicted monthly streamflow matched the observed values: during calibration the correlation coefficient was 0·86 and the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient 0·79, compared with 0·80 and 0·79, respectively, during validation. The model was used to simulate the main components of the hydrological cycle, in order to study the effects of land‐use changes in 1967, 1994 and 2007. The study reveals that during 1967 a 34·5% decrease of grassland with concurrent increases of shrubland (13·9%), rain‐fed agriculture (12·1%), bare ground (5·5%) irrigated agriculture (2·2%), and urban area (0·7%) led to a 33% increase in the amount of surface runoff and a 22% decrease in the groundwater recharge. Furthermore, the area of sub‐basins that was influenced by high runoff (14–28 mm) increased. The results indicate that the hydrological response to overgrazing and the replacing of rangelands (grassland and shrubland) with rain‐fed agriculture and bare ground (badlands) is nonlinear and exhibits a threshold effect. The runoff rises dramatically when more than 60% of the rangeland is removed. For groundwater this threshold lies at an 80% decrease in rangeland. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stiffness identification of a tall building during construction period using ambient tests

Ambient response measurements were made on an eighteen-storey building at three different stages of construction to detect any changes in the frequencies, mode shapes and stiffness with construction. The first nine frequencies and corresponding mode shapes for each stage of construction are found. A comparison is made among these mode shapes and frequencies and with the mode shapes and frequencies of an analytical model incorporating beams, columns, shear walls, panels and diagonal elements. The added effects, on frequencies and mode shapes, of non-structural elements such as stairs, elevators, claddings and partition walls are studied. Using Improved Statistical Structural Identification, an attempt is made to study the stiffening effect of non-structural elements by updating the stiffness matrix of the building.     

Numerical estimation of effective diffusion coefficients for charged porous materials based on micro-scale analyses

In order to describe diffusive transport of solutes through a porous material, estimation of effective diffusion coefficients is required. It has been shown theoretically that in the case of uncharged porous materials the effective diffusion coefficient of solutes is a function of the pore morphology of the material and can be described by the tortuosity (tensor) (Bear, 1988 [1]). Given detailed information of the pore geometry at the micro-scale the tortuosity of different materials can be accurately estimated using homogenization procedures. However, many engineering materials (e.g., clays and shales) are characterized by electrical surface charges on particles of the porous material which strongly affect the (diffusive) transport properties of ions. For these type of materials, estimation of effective diffusion coefficients have been mostly based on phenomenological equations with no link to underlying micro-scale properties of these charged materials although a few recent studies have used alternative methods to obtain the diffusion parameters (Jougnot et al., 2009; Pivonka et al., 2009; Revil and Linde, 2006 2, 3 and 4). In this paper we employ a recently proposed up-scaled Poisson–Nernst–Planck type of equation (PNP) and its micro-scale counterpart to estimate effective ion diffusion coefficients in thin charged membranes. We investigate a variety of different pore geometries together with different surface charges on particles. Here, we show that independent of the charges on particles, a (generalized) tortuosity factor can be identified as function of the pore morphology only using the new PNP model. On the other hand, all electro-static interactions of ions and charges on particles can consistently be captured by the ratio of average concentration to effective intrinsic concentration in the macroscopic PNP equations. Using this formulation allows to consistently take into account electrochemical interactions of ions and charges on particles and so excludes any ambiguity generally encountered in phenomenological equations.