The role of climate variability and fire in early and mid Holocene forest dynamics of southern Sweden

The objective of this study was to investigate the possible links between regional climate, fire and vegetation at the small spatial scale during the early and mid Holocene in southern Sweden using pollen, plant macrofossil and charcoal records from a small bog. The fire history was compared with climate reconstructions inferred from various proxy records in the study region. High fire activity is related to dry and warm climate around 8550, 7600, 5500–5100 and 4500 cal. a BC. Low fire activity ca. 6500–6000 and 4750 BC may correspond to the widespread ‘8.2 k event’ (ca. 6200 BC) recorded across the North Atlantic region, and a later, brief period of increased precipitation, respectively. The decrease in broadleaved trees culminating ca. 6500–6000 BC correlates with the ‘8.2 k event’. A long mid Holocene period with low fire activity (ca. 4350–1000 BC) agrees with the pattern emerging for Europe from the global charcoal database, and may correspond to generally wetter and cooler conditions. High fire activity ca. 8550 BC probably triggered the local establishment of Corylus. Warmer and drier conditions (and high fire activity) ca. 7600 BC might have favoured the establishment of Alnus, Quercus and Tilia. The fire‐adapted Pinus maintained important populations throughout the early and mid Holocene. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of ACCMIP simulated fine-mode AOD and its implication for aerosol direct forcing

This study examines and evaluates simulated aerosol optical depth (AOD) and fine-mode AOD (fAOD) from the ACCMIP and CMIP5 global model archives. Satellite data nudged to AERONET data are used to construct reliable global observations of AOD and fAOD for validating the simulations. The difference in simulated global average AOD among models is of the order of a factor of 2, and the difference is even larger (～factor of 3) for fAOD. Compared to the observations, the models tend to underestimate AOD and fAOD significantly over eastern China. Another important discrepancy is that the models show larger fAOD over the Indus-Ganga Plain in summer than in winter, whereas the observations display an opposite feature. The models also overestimate the fAOD over the biomass burning regions of central Africa in DJF and underestimate the fAOD over the biomass burning regions of southern Africa in JJA. To evaluate the effect of the discrepancy between modeled and observed fAOD on aerosol direct radiative forcing, an offline radiation model is utilized. Comparing the model-fAODderived fine-mode forcing with the fine-mode forcing derived from the fAOD observation, the models tend to give too large (negative) value. This result implies that the calculated anthropogenic aerosol forcing in ACCMIP and CMIP5 models has a negative bias.     

The role of precipitation in aerosol-induced changes in northern hemisphere wintertime stationary waves

The coupled climate model EC-Earth2 is used to investigate the impact of direct radiative effects of aerosols on stationary waves in the northern hemisphere wintertime circulation. The direct effect of aerosols is simulated by introducing prescribed mixing ratios of different aerosol compounds representing pre-industrial and present-day conditions, no indirect effects are included. In the EC-Earth2 results, the surface temperature response is uncorrelated with the highly asymmetric aerosol radiative forcing pattern. Instead, the anomalous extratropical temperature field bears a strong resemblance to the aerosol-induced changes in the stationary-wave pattern. It is demonstrated that the main features of the wave pattern of EC-Earth2 can be replicated by a linear, baroclinic model forced with latent heat changes corresponding to the anomalous convective precipitation generated by EC-Earth2. The tropical latent heat release is an effective means of generating stationary wave trains that propagate into the extratropics. Hence, the results of the present study indicate that aerosol-induced convective precipitation anomalies govern the extratropical wave-field changes, and that the far-field temperature response dominates over local effects of aerosol radiative forcing.     

Institutional and substantial uncertainty—Explaining the lack of adaptability in fish stocking policy

Adaptive management implies a system in which policy and practice are constantly revised in a continuous circular process to accommodate new ecological knowledge. In the case of current fish stocking practices, there is an evident gap between science and practice indicating a lack of adaptability. While fish stocking is perceived as a solution to many problems of modern fishery management, scientific researchers warn that current practices, including introducing alien populations, seriously threaten the sustainability of fish stocks. The aim of this study was to address, explain the existence of and, finally, discuss the prospect of narrowing this gap. For this purpose, the characteristics of the policy subsystem were analyzed. The empirical findings highlight the wickedness of the policy problem. The substantial and institutional uncertainties surrounding the issue are proposed as the main reasons for the deficits in adaptability. Fish stocking decisions are made within a complex policy subsystem that involves multiple actors and policy-making institutions, conflicting goals and competing notions of the problem. Cross-coalition learning—learning between coalitions of actors with different problem definitions, forming a joint view—is a necessary and, in the case of fish stocking, lacking variable in the adaptive management process.     

Navigating a complex policy system—Explaining local divergences in Swedish fish stocking policy

Swedish fish stocking policy constitutes an example of the disparate challenges associated with adaptive management theory and the realization thereof. The vast substantial and institutional uncertainties of the policy subsystem have previously been identified as variables that complicate the realization of adaptive policy making. The aim of this paper is to address and tentatively explain differences in regards to how these uncertainties are handled. What regional variances in Swedish fish stocking policy can be distinguished and how can these variations be explained? The empirical analysis shows that Swedish fish stocking policy consists of a wide array of different regional policies. These regional variations are explained by differences in existing implementation resources, policy beliefs and readings of formal regulations. Policy makers can decrease these divergences in two ways; they can either change formal regulations or influence available implementation resources. Both management approaches might have positive as well as negative effects on the subsystem's adaptability.     

Response to the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in relation to climate sensitivity in the CMIP3 models

The radiative flux perturbations and subsequent temperature responses in relation to the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 are studied in the ten general circulation models incorporated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3), that include a parameterization of volcanic aerosol. Models and observations show decreases in global mean temperature of up to 0.5 K, in response to radiative perturbations of up to 10 W m⁻², averaged over the tropics. The time scale representing the delay between radiative perturbation and temperature response is determined by the slow ocean response, and is estimated to be centered around 4 months in the models. Although the magniude of the temperature response to a volcanic eruption has previously been used as an indicator of equilibrium climate sensitivity in models, we find these two quantities to be only weakly correlated. This may partly be due to the fact that the size of the volcano-induced radiative perturbation varies among the models. It is found that the magnitude of the modelled radiative perturbation increases with decreasing climate sensitivity, with the exception of one outlying model. Therefore, we scale the temperature perturbation by the radiative perturbation in each model, and use the ratio between the integrated temperature perturbation and the integrated radiative perturbation as a measure of sensitivity to volcanic forcing. This ratio is found to be well correlated with the model climate sensitivity, more sensitive models having a larger ratio. Further, if this correspondence between “volcanic sensitivity” and sensitivity to CO₂ forcing is a feature not only among the models, but also of the real climate system, the alleged linear relation can be used to estimate the real climate sensitivity. The observational value of the ratio signifying volcanic sensitivity is hereby estimated to correspond to an equilibrium climate sensitivity, i.e. equilibrium temperature increase due to a doubling of the CO₂ concentration, between 1.7 and 4.1 K. Several sources of uncertainty reside in the method applied, and it is pointed out that additional model output, related to ocean heat storage and radiative forcing, could refine the analysis, as could reduced uncertainty in the observational record, of temperature as well as forcing.