Hydrological trends and the evolution of catchment research in the Alptal valley,central Switzerland

When the observation of small headwater catchments in the pre-Alpine Alptal valley (central Switzerland) started in the late 1960s, the researchers were mainly interested in questions related to floods and forest management. Investigations of geomorphological processes in the steep torrent channels followed in the 1980s, along with detailed observations of biogeochemical and ecohydrological processes in individual forest stands. More recently, research in the Alptal has addressed the impacts of climate change on water supply and runoff generation. In this article, we describe, for the first time, the evolution of catchment research at Alptal, and present new analyses of long-term trends and short-term hydrologic behaviour. Hydrometeorological time series from the past 50 years show substantial interannual variability, but only minimal long-term trends, except for the ~2°C increase in mean annual air temperature over the 50-year period, and a corresponding shift towards earlier snowmelt. Similar to previous studies in larger Alpine catchments, the decadal variations in mean annual runoff in Alptal's small research catchments reflect the long-term variability in annual precipitation. In the Alptal valley, the most evident hydrological trends were observed in late spring and are related to the substantial change in the duration of the snow cover. Streamflow and water quality are highly variable within and between hydrological events, suggesting rapid shifts in flow pathways and mixing, as well as changing connectivity of runoff-generating areas. This overview illustrates how catchment research in the Alptal has evolved in response to changing societal concerns and emerging scientific questions.     

Local ice caps in Finderup Land,North Greenland,survived the Holocene Thermal Maximum

Local glaciers and ice caps (GICs) comprise only ~5.4% of the total ice volume, but account for ~14–20% of the current ice loss in Greenland. The glacial history of GICs is not well constrained, however, and little is known about how they reacted to Holocene climate changes. Specifically, in North Greenland, there is limited knowledge about past GIC fluctuations and whether they survived the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM, ~8 to 5 ka). In this study, we use proglacial lake records to constrain the ice‐marginal fluctuations of three local ice caps in North Greenland including Flade Isblink, the largest ice cap in Greenland. Additionally, we have radiocarbon dated reworked marine molluscs in Little Ice Age (LIA) moraines adjacent to the Flade Isblink, which reveal when the ice cap was smaller than present. We found that outlet glaciers from Flade Isblink retreated inland of their present extent from ~9.4 to 0.2 cal. ka BP. The proglacial lake records, however, demonstrate that the lakes continued to receive glacial meltwater throughout the entire Holocene. This implies that GICs in Finderup Land survived the HTM. Our results are consistent with other observations from North Greenland but differ from locations in southern Greenland where all records show that the local ice caps at low and intermediate elevations disappeared completely during the HTM. We explain the north–south gradient in glacier response as a result of sensitivity to increased temperature and precipitation. While the increased temperatures during the HTM led to a complete melting of GICs in southern Greenland, GICs remained in North Greenland probably because the melting was counterbalanced by increased precipitation due to a reduction in Arctic sea‐ice extent and/or increased poleward moisture transport.     

The MPE X-ray test facility PANTER: Calibration of hard X-ray (15–50 kev) optics

The Max-Planck-Institut für extraterrestrische Physik (MPE) in Garching, Germany, uses its large X-ray beam line facility PANTER for testing X-ray astronomical instrumentation. A number of telescopes, gratings, filters, and detectors, e.g. for astronomical satellite missions like Exosat, ROSAT, Chandra (LETG), BeppoSAX, SOHO (CDS), XMM-Newton, ABRIXAS, Swift (XRT), have been successfully calibrated in the soft X-ray energy range (< 15keV). Moreover, measurements with mirror test samples for new missions like ROSITA and XEUS have been carried out at PANTER. Here we report on an extension of the energy range, enabling calibrations of hard X-ray optics over the energy range 15–50 keV. Several future X-ray astronomy missions (e.g., Simbol-X, Constellation-X, XEUS) have been proposed, which make use of hard X-ray optics based on multilayer coatings. Such optics are currently being developed by the Osservatorio Astronomico di Brera (OAB), Milano, Italy, and the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (CfA), Cambridge, MA, USA. These optics have been tested at the PANTER facility with a broad energy band beam (up to 50 keV) using the XMM-Newton EPIC-pn flight spare CCD camera with its good intrinsic energy resolution, and also with monochromatic X-rays between C-K (0.277 keV) and Cu-Kα (8.04 keV). PACS: 95.55.Ka, 95.55.Aq, 41 50.+h, 07.85.Fv     

High-resolution H i and radio continuum observations of the SNR G290.1−0.8

We have observed the supernova remnant (SNR) G290.1−0.8 in the 21-cm H  i line and the 20-cm radio continuum using the Australia Telescope Compact Array (ATCA). The H  i data were combined with data from the Southern Galactic Plane Survey to recover the shortest spatial frequencies. In contrast, H  i absorption was analysed by filtering extended H  i emission, with spatial frequencies shorter than 1.1 kλ. The low-resolution ATCA radio continuum image of the remnant shows considerable internal structure, resembling a network of filaments across its 13-arcmin diameter. A high-resolution ATCA radio continuum image was also constructed to study the small-scale structure in the SNR. It shows that there are no structures smaller than ∼17 arcsec, except perhaps for a bright knot to the south, which is probably an unrelated object. The H  i absorption study shows that the gas distribution and kinematics in front of SNR G290.1−0.8 are complex. We estimate that the SNR probably lies in the Carina arm, at a distance 7 (±1) kpc. In addition, we have studied nearby sources in the observed field using archival multiwavelength data to determine their characteristics.     

Rapid Lateglacial tree population dynamics and ecosystem changes in the eastern Baltic region

A growing body of evidence implies that the concept of 'treeless tundra' in eastern and northern Europe fails to explain the rapidity of Lateglacial and postglacial tree population dynamics of the region, yet the knowledge of the geographic locations and shifting of tree populations is fragmentary. Pollen, stomata and plant macrofossil stratigraphies from Lake Kurjanovas in the poorly studied eastern Baltic region provide improved knowledge of ranges of north‐eastern European trees during the Lateglacial and subsequent plant population responses to the abrupt climatic changes of the Lateglacial/Holocene transition. The results prove the Lateglacial presence of tree populations (Betula, Pinus and Picea) in the eastern Baltic region. Particularly relevant is the stomatal and plant macrofossil evidence showing the local presence of reproductive Picea populations during the Younger Dryas stadial at 12 900–11 700 cal. a BP, occurring along with Dryas octopetala and arctic herbs, indicating semi‐open vegetation. The spread of Pinus–Betula forest at ca. 14 400 cal. a BP, the rise of Picea at ca. 12 800 cal. a BP and the re‐establishment of Pinus–Betula forest at ca. 11 700 cal. a BP within a span of centuries further suggest strikingly rapid, climate‐driven ecosystem changes rather than gradual plant succession on a newly deglaciated land. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Are natural hazards temporally random?

The paper employs statistical hypothesis tests to explore the question of whether natural hazards (hail and tornadoes being considered here) are or are not intertemporally random. The answer to this question, at least for these two hazards, is surprising and has important policy implications: hazards appear to be more likely in year t if an event was experienced in year t?1: hence, apparent ‘Gambler's Fallacy’ behaviour on the part of farmers and others may indeed be rational. Should this result hold for a full range of climate-related hazard types. as we suspect, hundreds of millions of dollars of crop loss and other damages may be preventable (e.g., rotating to frost-resistant crops if past events suggest greater than usual likelihood of early or late frost). The degree of positive serial correlation is also seen to vary a great deal regionally, with individuals in some states being unable to benefit from knowledge of prior hazard occurrence.     

Multiforced statistical assessments of greenhouse-gas-induced surface air temperature change 1890–1985

Based on univariate correlation and coherence analyses and considering the physical basis of the relationships, a simple multiforced (multiple) statistical concept is used which correlates observational climatic time series simultaneously with volcanic, solar, ENSO, and the anthropogenic greenhouse gases forcing. This is appropriate to remove some natural climate noise in the observed data and to evaluate the components (signals) possibly due to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (CO₂, or equivalent CO₂ implying additional gases) during industrial time. In this paper, we apply this technique to 100 global box data time series 1890–1985, of the surface air temperature, using observed data from Hansen and Lebedeff. The results are presented in terms of latitudinal-seasonal and regional trends, where the observed trend patterns are compared with the hypothetical signals (statistical assessments) possibly due to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing. These latter signals can be amplified to enable a comparison with corresponding results from general circulation model (GCM) CO₂ doubling experiments. These observed-statistical assessments lead to results which are, at least qualitatively and in respect to the zonal mean temperatures, very similar to some GCM experiments indicating the maximum CO₂ doubling signals (statistical assessment > 12 K) in the arctic winter. However, these signals are moderate in the tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere (global average 2.8–4.4 K). As far as the industrial signals are concerned (observed period) these signals are somewhat larger (maximum 7 K, global average 0.5–0.9 K) than the observed trends (maximum 5 K, global average 0.5 K). Phase shifts of cause and effect may amplify these signals but are very uncertain.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil     

Transfer factors of contamination between the German Bight and its tributary waters derived from measured tritium and Cs-137 activity concentrations

Summary Evaluation of the results of radioactivity monitoring in the southern North Sea between 1977 and 1987 has shown that in the water of the German Bight three areas stand out due to their different ratios between salinity and concentration of dissolved Cs-137 and tritium. While salinity steadily increases with greater distance from the coast, the Cs-137 concentration above 34 PSU (Practical Salinity Unit) increases sharply and shows how far water from the western and central North Sea, contaminated by nuclear reprocessing in Sellafield (Irish Sea), reaches into the German Bight. In the 34 to 32.5 PSU range, the influence can be seen of water contaminated by tritium originating in the rivers Rhein, Maas and Schelde, precipitation and the nuclear reprocessing plant at La Hague (Channel). Below 32.5 PSU, the influence of the influx from the rivers Elbe, Weser and Ems becomes apparent. These rivers are less contaminated with tritium.Assuming that Cs-137 and tritium, like the salinity of sea water, behave conservatively and that the decay-time of these two isotopes is long compared with the time-scale of water exchange in the southern North Sea, the concentration values measured are used to calculate the structure of the water masses in the three areas of the German Bight mentioned above using the mixing principle. Evaporation is taken into account. Results show that beyond 34 PSU, about half the sea water originates in the western central North Sea while the other half comes from the Channel. Below 34 PSU, the first mentioned share amounts only to a few per cent. Results also show that fresh water from the Rhein delta and precipitation, increasing with a decrease in salinity from 34 to 32.5 PSU, accounts for a maximum of 5% each. The fresh water influx into the German Bight via the rivers Elbe, Weser and Ems amounts to app. 11% when the PSU value reaches 29. The calculated portions are the mean values for the observation period. The number of measurements available makes it impossible to distinguish more exactly between the temporal and spatial variability of the amounts of the individual components.The quantity of each calculated portion of sea water also represents the transfer factor of concentration between the nuclide concentration in the source (e. g. the Rhein) and the concentration in the German Bight. In addition, these factors are used to calculate the transfer factors of discharge using the annual drainage rates of the sources. Thus a radioactive discharge rate of 10¹⁵ Bq per year into the Rhein would produce a mean activity concentration of 0.34 Bq/l in the German Bight (at a salinity of 33.5 PSU). To verify the calculated transfer factors, tritium concentrations in the German Bight are derived from existing environmental tritium data and the results are compared with the values actually measured.

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Transferkaktoren zwischen der Deutschen Bucht und ihren Zuflüssen abgeleitet aus der Tritium- und Cs-137-Aktivitätskonzentration in den beteiligten Gewässern

Zusammenfassung Eine zusammenhängende Auswertung der Meßergebnisse der Radioaktivitätsüberwachung in der südlichen Nordsee über den Zeitraum 1977 bis 1987 hat gezeigt, daß im Wasser der Deutschen Bucht deutlich drei durch den Salzgehalt des Meerwassers und die Konzentration der gelösten Radionuklide charakterisierte Bereiche zu unterscheiden sind.Während der Salzgehalt mit wachsender Entfernung von der Küste stetig zunimmt, steigt die Cs-137-Konzentration oberhalb 34 PSU (Practical Salinity Unit) sprunghaft an und signalisiert die Grenze, bis zu der das durch die Kernbrennstoff-Wiederaufarbeitung in Sellafield (Irische See) kontaminierte Meerwasser der westlichen und mittleren Nordsee in die Deutsche Bucht vordringt. Im Bereich 34 bis 32,5 PSU ist das von Westen zugeführte, stärker Tritium-kontaminierte Wasser aus Rhein, Maas, Schelde und atmosphärischem Niederschlag zu erkennen, an das sich unterhalb 32,5 PSU der geringer mit Tritum kontaminierte Zufluß aus Elbe, Weser und Ems anschließt.Davon ausgehend, daß sich Cs-137 und Tritium wie der Salzgehalt im Meerwasser konservativ verhalten und daß weiterhin die Halbwertzeit des radioaktiven Zerfalls dieser beiden Nuklide lang ist gegenüber den Wasseraustauschzeiten im betrachteten Meeresgebiet, wurden die in der südlichen Nordsee gemessenen sowie aus der Literatur für den Süßwasserbereich entnommenen Konzentrationswerte dazu genutzt, um rechnerisch mit Hilfe des Mischungsgesetzes den Wassermassenaufbau in den drei genannten Salinitätsbereichen in der Deutschen Bucht quantitativ zu bestimmen. Es zeigte sich, daß oberhalb von 34 PSU das Meerwasser aus etwa gleichen Teilen aus der westlichen/mittleren Nordsee und dem Kanal stammt, während unterhalb dieser Salzgehaltsgrenze nur noch mit wenigen Prozentanteilen Wasser aus der mittleren Nordsee zu finden ist. Ferner ergab sich, daß das aus dem Rheinmündungsbiet bzw, aus dem atmosphärischen Niederschlag stammende Süßwasser — mit sinkendem Salzgehalt steigend — bei 32,5 PSU einen maximalen Anteil von jeweils 5% an Meerwasser hat. Der direkte Süßwasserzufluß aus Elbe, Weser und Ems beträgt in die Deutsche Bucht bei 29 PSU ca. 11%.Die berechneten Anteile sind Mittelwerte über den gesamten Beobachtungszeitraum; die Anzahl der Messungen läßt eine genauere Unterscheidung in zeitliche und räumliche Variabilität der Zusammensetzung nicht zu.Die Größe des jeweils bestimmten Anteils am Meerwasser stellt gleichzeitig den Transferfaktor der Konzentration zwischen der Nuklidkonzentration im Ursprungsgewässer (z. B. dem Rhein) und der sich daraus einstellenden Konzentration in der Deutschen Bucht dar. Ferner wurden die Transferfaktoren der Konzentration in Verbindung mit aus der Literatur entnommenen Größen der jährlichen Abflußmengen der Ursprungsgewässer genutzt, um auch die Transferfaktoren der jährlichen Einbringung zu ermitteln. So ergibt die jährliche Einbringung von 10¹⁵ Bq eines Nuklides z. B. in den Rhein bei 33,5 PSU in der Deutschen Bucht eine mittlere Konzentration von 0,34 Bq/l.Als Anwendungsbeispiel und zur Überprüfung der Richtigkeit der Transferfaktoren wird die Auswertung des Tritiumauslasses bei La Hague auf die Deutsche Bucht berechnet und mit den gemessenen Werten verglichen.

     

A late Neoproterozoic paleomagnetic pole for the Congo craton: Tectonic setting, paleomagnetism and geochronology of the Nola dike swarm (Central African Republic)

New structural, geochronological and paleomagnetic data were obtained on dolerite dikes of the Nola region (Central African Republic) at the northern border of the Congo craton. In this region, metavolcanic successions were thrust southward onto the craton during the Panafrican orogenic events. Our structural data reveal at least two structural klippes south of the present-day limits of the Panafrican nappe suggesting that it has once covered the whole Nola region, promoting the pervasive hydrothermal greenschist metamorphism observed in the underlying cratonic basement and also in the intrusive dolerite dikes. Paleomagnetic measurements revealed a stable dual-polarity low-inclination magnetization component in nine dikes (47 samples), carried by pyrrhotite and magnetite. This component corresponds to a paleopole at 304.8°E and 61.8°S (dp = 5.4, dm = 10.7) graded at Q = 6. Both metamorphism and magnetic resetting were dated by the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method on amphibole grains separated from the dikes at 571 ± 6 Ma. The Nola pole is the first well-dated paleomagnetic pole for the Congo craton between 580 and 550 Ma. It marks a sudden change in direction of the Congo craton apparent polar wander path at the waning stages of the Panafrican orogenic events.