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1.
The paper employs statistical hypothesis tests to explore the question of whether natural hazards (hail and tornadoes being considered here) are or are not intertemporally random. The answer to this question, at least for these two hazards, is surprising and has important policy implications: hazards appear to be more likely in year t if an event was experienced in year t?1: hence, apparent ‘Gambler's Fallacy’ behaviour on the part of farmers and others may indeed be rational. Should this result hold for a full range of climate-related hazard types. as we suspect, hundreds of millions of dollars of crop loss and other damages may be preventable (e.g., rotating to frost-resistant crops if past events suggest greater than usual likelihood of early or late frost). The degree of positive serial correlation is also seen to vary a great deal regionally, with individuals in some states being unable to benefit from knowledge of prior hazard occurrence. 相似文献
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Katherine M. Papastephanou Stephen M. Bollens Anne M. Slaughter 《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2006,53(25-26):3078
Cross-shelf distribution and abundance of copepod nauplii and copepodids were measured during three summer upwelling seasons (2000–2002) in a coastal upwelling zone off northern California. These 3 years varied considerably in the intensity of winds, abundance of chlorophyll, and water temperature. The cruises in 2000 were characterized by relaxation conditions, with generally high levels of chlorophyll and high water temperature. The cruises in 2001 and 2002 were dominated by strong and persistent upwelling events, leading to lower chlorophyll and water temperatures. The copepod assemblage was dominated by Oithona spp., Acartia spp. and Pseudocalanus spp., with Metridia pacifica (lucens), Microsetella rosea, Oncaea spp. and Tortanus discaudatus also common during all 3 years. The cross-shelf distribution of copepods was generally shifted offshore during upwelling and onshore during relaxation events, although some variability between species occurred. Abundance of all life stages generally exhibited a negative correlation with cross-shelf transport averaged over at least 1–4 days and lagged by 0–3 days, indicating lower abundances during and immediately after active upwelling. However, copepod nauplii seemed to respond positively to wind events lasting 1–5 days followed by a period of relaxation lasting 6 or 7 days. These rapid rates of change in abundance are probably too great to be due to in situ growth and reproduction alone; physical processes must also play a role. These results suggest a highly dynamic relationship between copepods and upwelling events off northern California, with species-specific responses to upwelling to be expected. 相似文献
6.
A series of transient tests were conducted to determine the seafloor coupling characteristics of a new ocean-bottom seismometer (OBS) developed for the United States Office of Naval Research (ONR). The OBS comprises a large recording package and a separate sensor package that is deployed from the recording package. In addition to the coupling characteristics of both the sensor and the recording packages, the seismic energy radiated from the main recording package as a result of motion of the recording package was measured. The observed vertical coupling resonances of both the recording package and the sensor package are in good agreement with those predicted by a simple model of soil-structure interaction. The most important result of this study is that significant energy is radiated from the recording package in response to horizontal motions of the recording package. When the sensor package is 1 m from the recording package, the amplitude of the recorded signal is similar to that recorded in the recording package. In the field, this effect will result in distortion of seismic signals and increased background noise recorded by the sensor package if the recording package is disturbed by seafloor currents or biological activity. The amplitude of this signal attenuates by approximately a factor of two as sensor/recorder separation is increased from 1 to 6 m, suggesting that an improved response can be achieved by increasing the separation between the recording package and the sensors. This effect is much less severe for vertical disturbances of the recording package. 相似文献
7.
Retrograde fluid infiltration in the high-grade Modum Complex South Norway: evidence for age,source and REE mobility 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Ingrid Anne Munz David Wayne Håkon Austrheim 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1994,116(1-2):32-46
The high-grade metamorphic basement of the Modum Complex, South Norway,exhibits retrogradation and alteration due to late stage fluid infiltration.Extensive alteration zones of albite-and calcite-rich veining occur especiallywithin and around numerous metagabbros. The gabbros, intruded at 1224±15Ma, are now partly altered to amphibolites due to the subsequent high-grade metamorphism.Two generations of albite-rich rocks have been recognized: (1) a fine-grained, foliated type;(2) a coarse-grained, crosscutting type. Both types show a typical greenschist facies mineralassemblage; albite ± actinolite ± chlorite ± talc. The calcite veins/dykesrepresent a younger generation of veins than both albite-rich types. U–Pb data for spheneof type (1) yielded an age of 1080±3 Ma, determining a point on the retrogradeP-T-t path of the Modum Complex. Increasing albitisation of themetagabbros leads to a decrease in(143ND/144Nd)oand an increase in (87Sr/86)o.Albite- and calcite-rich samples show negative Nd and positive Sr, suggesting that fluids which interacted with the metagabbros originated from a crustal reservoir. The Nd and Sr isotopic data show disequilibrium at the microscale as well as at the macroscale. Negative Sm–Nd model ages of the albite-rich rocks demonstrate that rare-earth elements (REEs) were mobile and fractionated during albitisation. 相似文献
8.
Anne C. Sigleo 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》1978,42(9):1397-1405
Lignin derivatives have been isolated for the first time from carbonaceous sections of the silicified (~90% SiO2) conifer Araucarioxylon arizonicum. The products released by sequential high vacuum pyrolysis and identified by combined gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) include a wide variety of alkyl-substituted, phenolic and condensed aromatic compounds.Brauns spruce lignin was pyrolized and analyzed by GC-MS as a comparison for the fossil wood data. The primary pyrolyzates at the 300°C step were CO2, H2O, ethanol and propanol. The main product at 450°C was 4-methyl-2-methoxyphenol (methyl guaiacol), but at 600°C the pyrolyzates were similar both in product composition and in relative abundance to those from silicified wood. The results suggest that the fossil wood experienced a mild thermal event during which the ether bonds were ruptured and loss of oxygen occurred along with the rearrangement of the original wood into a highly stable polymer. 相似文献
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Dominique AubertPeter Stille Anne ProbstFrançois Gauthier-lafaye Laurent PourcelotMireille Del nero 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2002,66(19):3339-3350
Rainwater and snow collected from three different sites in France (Vosges Mountains, French Alps and Strasbourg) show more or less similar shapes of their REE distribution patterns. Rainwater from Strasbourg is the most REE enriched sample, whereas precipitations from the two mountainous, less polluted catchments are less REE enriched and have concentrations close to seawater. They are all strongly LREE depleted.Different water samples from an Alpine watershed comprising snow, interstitial, puddle and streamwater show similar REE distributions with LREE enrichment (rainwater normalized) but MREE and HREE depletion. In this environment, where water transfer from the soil to the river is very quick due to the low thickness of the soils, it appears that REE in streamwater mainly originate from atmospheric inputs. Different is the behaviour of the REE in the spring- and streamwaters from the Vosges Mountains. These waters of long residence time in the deep soil horizons react with soil and bedrock REE carrying minerals and show especially significant negative Eu anomalies compared to atmospheric inputs. Their Sr and Nd isotopic data suggest that most of the Sr and Nd originate from apatite leaching or dissolution. Soil solutions and soil leachates from the upper soil horizons due to alteration processes strongly depleted in REE carrying minerals, have REE distribution patterns close to those of lichens and throughfall. Throughfall is slightly more enriched especially in light REE than filtered rainwater probably due to leaching of atmospheric particles deposited on the foliage and also to leaf excretion.Data suggest that Sr and Nd isotopes of the soil solutions in the upper soil horizons originate from two different sources: 1) An atmospheric source with fertilizer, dust and seawater components and 2) A source mainly determined by mineral dissolution in the soil. These two different sources are also recognizable in the Sr and Nd isotopic composition of the tree’s throughfall solution. The atmospheric contributions of Sr and Nd to throughfall and soil solution are of 20 to 70 and 20%, respectively. In springwater, however, the atmospheric Sr and REE contribution is not detectable. 相似文献
10.
Milena B. Fernandes Marie-Alexandrine Sicre Anne Boireau Jacek Tronczynski 《Estuaries and Coasts》1997,20(2):281-290
Dissolved and particulate hydrocarbons of biogenic origin were investigated for the first time in surface waters along the Seine River and its estuary. They comprise n-alkanes (n-ALKs) and diagenetic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Samples were collected in three different sections of the estuary: the riverine zone, the mixing zone, and the marine zone. At the river mouth, two mooring stations were used for the collection of samples over tidal cycles. Total particulate n-ALK concentrations ranged from 31 ng 1?1 to 2,918 ng 1?1, or 5 μg g?1 dry ng 1?1, or 2 μg g?1 of SM. Concentrations varied with the SM load and could be related to sedimentation and estuarine mixing. The sources of the n-ALKs were different in each zone of the estuary. The dissolved n-ALKs displayed lower concentrations than the particulate phase, varying from 136 ng 1?1 to 344 ng 1?1, while biogenic dissolved PAHs were almost absent. 相似文献