Neural network prediction of nitrate in groundwater of Harran Plain, Turkey

Monitoring groundwater quality by cost-effective techniques is important as the aquifers are vulnerable to contamination from the uncontrolled discharge of sewage, agricultural and industrial activities. Faulty planning and mismanagement of irrigation schemes are the principle reasons of groundwater quality deterioration. This study presents an artificial neural network (ANN) model predicting concentration of nitrate, the most common pollutant in shallow aquifers, in groundwater of Harran Plain. The samples from 24 observation wells were monthly analysed for 1 year. Nitrate was found in almost all groundwater samples to be significantly above the maximum allowable concentration of 50 mg/L, probably due to the excessive use of artificial fertilizers in intensive agricultural activities. Easily measurable parameters such as temperature, electrical conductivity, groundwater level and pH were used as input parameters in the ANN-based nitrate prediction. The best back-propagation (BP) algorithm and neuron numbers were determined for optimization of the model architecture. The Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm was selected as the best of 12 BP algorithms and optimal neuron number was determined as 25. The model tracked the experimental data very closely (R = 0.93). Hence, it is possible to manage groundwater resources in a more cost-effective and easier way with the proposed model application.     

Finite Element Modeling of Swelling Soil Pressures Using Joint/Interface Elements

There could be some discontinuities in a soil media such as layers, earth structures, cracks, and fissures so that estimation of stresses and deformations in these types of soil masses are somewhat different from continuous masses. The discontinuities in a soil mass could be considered as a special link between two blocks. Transmitted swelling pressures affected by the soil properties of the backfill especially at the interface between the backfill and retaining wall. In order to estimate the transmitted swelling pressure distribution behind a retaining wall, using with interface element, a new finite element model and a code (SWELPRES) have been developed. To evaluate the effect of backfill characteristics and interface element from the transmitted lateral swelling pressures, four cases of thickness of backfills with or without interface elements are investigated.     

Evidence of NW extension of the North Anatolian Fault Zone in the Marmara Sea: a new interpretation of the Marmara Sea (Izmit) earthquake on 17 August 1999

Active faults aligning in NW–SE direction and forming flower structures of strike-slip faults were observed in shallow seismic data from the shelf offshore of Avcılar in the northern Marmara Sea. By following the parallel drainage pattern and scarps, these faults were traced as NW–SE-directed lineaments in the morphology of the northern onshore sector of the Marmara Sea (eastern Thrace Peninsula). Right-lateral displacements in two watersheds of drainage and on the coast of the Marmara Sea and Black Sea are associated with these lineaments. This right-lateral displacement along the course of these faults suggests a new, active strike-slip fault zone located at the NW extension of the northern boundary fault of the ?ınarcık Basin in the Marmara Sea. This new fault zone is interpreted as the NW extension of the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), extending from the ?ınarcık Basin of the Marmara Sea to the Black Sea coast of the Thrace Peninsula, and passing through B üy ük ?ekmece and K ü ? ük ?ekmece lagoons. These data suggest that the rupture of the 17 August 1999 earthquake in the NAFZ may have extended through Avcılar. Indeed, Avcılar and İzmit, both located on the Marmara Sea coast along the rupture route, were strongly struck by the earthquake whereas the settlements between Avcılar and İzmit were much less affected. Therefore, this interpretation can explain the extraordinary damage in Avcılar, based on the newly discovered rupture of the NAFZ in the Marmara Sea. However, this suggestion needs to be confirmed by further seismological studies.     

Quaternary evolution of the Gulf of İzmit (NW Turkey): a sedimentary basin under control of the North Anatolian Fault Zone

The Quaternary evolution of the Gulf of İzmit, situated on the tectonically active North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), was investigated using seismic reflection, paleontologic, and sediment textural data. On the basis of seismic stratigraphic and sedimentologic-paleontologic interpretations, four depositional units were distinguished within the Plio-Quaternary sequence of the Gulf of İzmit. According to these data, Plio-Quaternary deposits supplied from the northern terrestrial area started to accumulate during a progradational phase, in a south-facing half-graben. A coarse-grained sedimentary unit prograding into the gulf from the south since 200 ka b.p. indicates a dramatic variation in the evolution of the gulf, with the initiation of a new strike-slip fault of the NAFZ and a corresponding uplift of the Armutlu Peninsula in the south of the gulf. During the evolution of this fault from a wide shear zone consisting of right-stepped strike-slip faults and pull-apart basins to a localized principal fault zone, sediments were deposited under the influence of northerly prograding terrestrial and shallow-marine conditions due to relative sea-level fluctuations in the Marmara Sea. During this period, the Gulf of İzmit was invaded mainly by Mediterranean and partly by Black Sea waters. In the latest glacial period, shallow areas in the gulf became subaerially exposed, whereas the central and western sub-basins of the gulf turned into lakes. The present evolution of the Gulf of İzmit is controlled by the after effects of the new rupture of the NAFZ and the estuarine nature of the gulf environment.     

Seakeeping assessment of fishing vessels in conceptual design stage

The main idea of this paper is to identify functional relations between seakeeping characteristics and hull form parameters of Mediterranean fishing vessels. Multiple regression analysis is used for quantitative assessment through a computer software that is based on the SQL Server Database. The seakeeping attributes under investigation are the transfer functions of heave and pitch motions and of absolute vertical acceleration at stern, while the ship parameters influencing motion dynamics have been classified into two groups: displacement (Δ) and main dimensions (L, B, T), coefficients that define the details of the hull form (C_WP, C_VP, LCB, LCF, etc.).Four multiple regression models having different parameter combinations are here investigated and discussed, giving way to the so-called ‘Simple Model’, ‘Intermediate Model’, ‘Enhanced 1 Model’ and ‘Enhanced 2 Model’. The obtained results are more than satisfactory for seakeeping predictions during the conceptual design stage.     

Morphological analysis of active Mount Nemrut stratovolcano, eastern Turkey: evidences and possible impact areas of future eruption

Mount Nemrut, an active stratovolcano in eastern Turkey, is a great danger for its vicinity. The volcano possesses a summit caldera which cuts the volcano into two stages, i.e. pre- and post-caldera. Wisps of smoke and hot springs are to be found within the caldera. Although the last recorded volcanic activity is known to have been in 1441, we consider here that the last eruption of Nemrut occurred more recently, probably just before 1597. The present active tectonic regime, historical eruptions, occurrence of mantle-derived magmatic gases and the fumarole and hot spring activities on the caldera floor make Nemrut Volcano a real danger for its vicinity. According to the volcanological past of Nemrut, the styles of expected eruptions are well-focused on two types: (1) occurrence of water within the caldera leads to phreatomagmatic (highly energetic) eruptions, subsequently followed by lava extrusions, and (2) effusions–extrusions (non-explosive or weakly energetic eruptions) on the flanks from fissures. To predict the impact area of future eruptions, a series of morphological analyses based on field observations, Digital Elevation Model and satellite images were realized. Twenty-two valleys (main transport pathways) were classified according to their importance, and the physical parameters related to the valleys were determined. The slope values in each point of the flanks and the Heim parameters H/L were calculated. In the light of morphological analysis the possible impact areas around the volcano and danger zones were proposed. The possible transport pathways of the products of expected volcanic events are unified in three main directions: Bitlis, Guroymak, Tatvan and Ahlat cities, the about 135 000 inhabitants of which could be threatened by future eruptions of this poorly known and unsurveyed volcano.     

The measurement of soil gases and shallow temperature for determination of active faults in a geothermal area: a case study from Ömer–Gecek,Afyonkarahisar (West Anatolia)

Afyonkarahisar is a very important geothermal province of western Anatolia and has low and medium enthalpy geothermal areas. This study has been carried out for the preparation of distribution maps of soil gases (radon and carbon dioxide) and shallow soil temperature and the exploration of permeable tectonic regions associated with geothermal systems and reveal the origins of radon and carbon dioxide gases. The western district of the study area is characterized by the high radon concentration (168.30 kBq/m³), carbon dioxide ratio (0.30%), and soil temperature (21.0 °C) values. Fethibey and Demirçevre faults, which allow the circulation of geothermal fluids, have been detected in the distribution maps of radon, carbon dioxide, and shallow depth temperature and the directions of the curves in these maps correspond to the strikes of Demirçevre faults. The effect of the fault plays an important role in the change of carbon dioxide concentration along the W-E directional geological section prepared to determine the change of soil gas and shallow depth temperature values depending on lithological differences, fault existence, and geothermal reservoir depth. On the other hand, it was determined that Rn²²² concentration and soil temperature changed as a function of geothermal reservoir depth or lithological difference. Tuffs in Köprülü volcano-sedimentary units are the main source of radon due to their higher uranium contents. Besides, the carbon dioxide in Ömer–Gecek soils has geothermal origin because of the highest carbon dioxide content (99.3%) in non-condense gas. The similarities in patterns of soil temperature, radon, and carbon dioxide indicate that the variation in soil temperatures is related to radon and carbon dioxide emissions. It is concluded that soil gas and temperature measurements can be used to determine the active faults in the initial stage of geothermal exploration successfully.