连续台风时期香港区域的水汽变化分析

利用香港卫星定位参考站网GNSS观测数据,提取强热带风暴"塔拉斯"与热带风暴"洛克"影响期间各测站天顶方向对流层延迟,反演香港区域大气可降水量;根据香港区域49个天文台气象站提供的实测降雨量数据,分析大气可降水量与实际降雨量的相关性,以及两次台风对香港区域水汽时空分布的不同影响。结果表明,大气可降水量在台风影响前期均上升,在大量降雨后回落,但在连续台风的间歇期间,仍高于台风来临前的水平;水汽累积是大量降雨的前提条件,当水汽累积量相近时,水汽累积时长与累积降雨量呈正相关;台风期间大气可降水量值超过65 mm的区域面积与台风等级相关,台风路径对局部水汽分布有一定的影响。     

基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

用C#.Net实现软件系统的动态更新

为了便于大型软件系统的后续开发和用户软件系统的升级，介绍了软件系统在Internet/Intranet上更新功能或数据的原理和方法，并用C#．Net进行了编程实现。     

MATLAB在运用系统建模处理南海气象数据过程中应用

介绍了MATLAB语言特点和系统建模方法的基本理论.根据南海气象数据的实际建模处理过程,给出了建模的详细步骤及其MATLAB实现过程以及MATLABTM的主要实现程序.试验讨论和结果表明利用MATLAB语言可以方便地对南海气象数据用系统建模方法进行建模和处理,MATLAB在运用系统建模法处理南海气象数据方面具有明显的优越性.     

Small-scale mantle flows and induced lithospheric stress near island arcs

Summary. This paper explores the middle ground between complex thermally-coupled viscous flow models and simple corner flow models of island arc environments. The calculation retains the density-driven nature of convection and relaxes the geometrical constraints of corner flow, yet still provides semianalytical solutions for velocity and stress. A novel aspect of the procedure is its allowance for a coupled elastic lithosphere on top of a Newtonian viscous mantle. Initially, simple box-like density drivers illustrate how vertical and horizontal forces are transmitted through the mantle and how the lithosphere responds by trench formation. The flexural strength of the lithosphere spatially broadens the surface topography and gravity anomalies relative to the functional form of the vertical flow stresses applied to the plate base. I find that drivers in the form of inclined subducting slabs cannot induce self-driven parallel flow; however, the necessary flow can be provided by supplying a basal drag of 1–5 MPa to the mantle from the oceanic lithosphere. These basal drag forces create regional lithospheric stress and they should be quantifiable through seismic observations of the neutral surface. The existence of a shallow elevated phase transition is suggested in two slab models of 300 km length where a maximum excess density of 0.2 g cm⁻³ was needed to generate an acceptable mantle flow. A North New Hebrides subduction model which satisfies flow requirements and reproduces general features of topography and gravity contains a high shear stress zone (75 MPa) around the upper slab surface to a depth of 150 km and a deviatoric tensional stress in the back arc to a depth of 70 km. The lithospheric stress state of this model suggests that slab detachment is possible through whole plate fracture.     

Kuiper带小天体动力演化

Kuiper带是指太阳系内位于离太阳 30～ 50AU一个区域。 1 992年该区域陆续发现了一群半径在几十到几百公里的小天体。这些小天体在Kuiper带的分布是极其不均匀的。Kuiper带小天体的发现对人们认识太阳系的形成与演化有重要的意义。本文回顾了近年来国际上在Kuiper带小天体动力演化方面的研究 ,着重分析了目前国际上几种用以解释其非均匀分布的动力学机制 ,并提出目前该领域的一些尚未解决的问题。     

利用Lageos 1 SLR资料解算1990-2001年的地球定向参数

利用 12年的Lageos 1卫星激光测距资料 (1990 - 2 0 0 1)解算得到了地球定向参数 (EOP) ,将该序列的结果与同期的EOP(IERS)C0 4进行比较 ,其外符精度为 :极移XP— 0 .4 0mas,YP— 0 .4 2mas ,日长变化Dr— 0 .0 35ms。     

Spinor: Visible and Infrared Spectro-Polarimetry at the National Solar Observatory

The Spectro-Polarimeter for Infrared and Optical Regions (SPINOR) is a new spectro-polarimeter that will serve as a facility instrument for the Dunn Solar Telescope at the National Solar Observatory. This instrument is capable of achromatic polarimetry over a very broad range of wavelengths, from 430 to 1600 nm, allowing for the simultaneous observation of several visible and infrared spectral regions with full Stokes polarimetry. Another key feature of the design is its flexibility to observe virtually any combination of spectral lines, limited only by practical considerations (e.g., the number of detectors available, space on the optical bench, etc.). Visiting Astronomers, National Solar Observatory, operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc. (AURA), under cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation.