Shifts in the synoptic systems influencing southwest Western Australia

A self-organising map is used to classify the winter circulation affecting southwest Western Australia (SWWA) into 20 different synoptic types. The changes in the frequency of these types and their links to observed rainfall are analysed to further understand the significant, prolonged, rainfall drop observed in this region since 1975. The temporal variability of the different synoptic types link well with the observed rainfall changes. The frequency of the troughs associated with wet conditions across SWWA has declined markedly since 1975 while the frequency of the synoptic types with high pressure over the continent, associated with dry conditions, has increased. Combining the frequency of the synoptic systems with the amount of observed rainfall allows a quantitative analysis of the rainfall decline. The decreased frequency of the troughs associated with very wet conditions accounts for half of the decline. Reductions in the amount of rainfall precipitating from each system also contribute to the decline. Large-scale circulation changes, including increases in the mean sea-level pressure and a decrease in the general baroclinicity of the region have been associated with the rainfall decline. These changes are suggested to be linked to increasing levels of greenhouse gases. Due to the strong link between the number of trough types and the rainfall over SWWA, the shifts in the frequency of these synoptic types could be used as a tool to assess simulated rainfall changes, particularly into the future.     

ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES ON NORTHWEST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE NUMBERS

In this study,the relationship between tropical cyclone numbers in the Northwest Pacific,Southern Oscillation (SO) and some environmental variables observed over the global oceans has been examined.The major results indicate that the pattern of correlations between the tropical cyclone numbers and the environmental variables is in a sense analogous to that between the SO and the same environmental variables,but the correlation is weak.The study indicates that the relationship between tropical cyclone numbers and environmental variables is more complex,and the factors affecting the variation in tropical cyclone numbers in the Northwest Pacific should include not only ENSO events but also a long-term effect which is not related to ENSO.     

Scour and Burial Mechanics of Objects in the Nearshore

A process-based, numerical, hydrodynamic vortex lattice mine scour/burial model (VORTEX) is presented that simulates scour and burial of objects of arbitrary shape resting on a granular bed in the nearshore. There are two domains in the model formulation: a far-field where burial and exposure occur due to changes in the elevation of the seabed and a near-field involving scour and transport of sediment by the vortices shed from the object. The far-field burial mechanisms are based on changes in the equilibrium bottom profiles in response to seasonal changes in wave climate and accretion/erosion waves spawned by fluxes of sediment into the littoral cell. The near-field domain consists of one grid cell extracted from the far-field that is subdivided into a rectangular lattice of panels having sufficient resolution to define the shape of the object. The vortex field induced by the object is constructed from an assemblage of horseshoe vortices excited by local pressure gradients and shear over the lattice panels. The horseshoe vortices of each lattice panel release a pair of vortex filaments into the neighboring flow. The induced velocity of these trailing vortex filaments causes scour of the neighboring seabed and induces hydrodynamic forces on the object. Scour around the object and its subsequent movement into the scour depression contribute to burial, while far-field changes in local sand level may increase burial depth or expose the object. Scour and burial predictions of mines and mine-like objects were tested in field experiments conducted in the nearshore waters off the Pacific coast of California at Scripps Pier, the Gulf Coast of Florida at Indian Rocks, and off the Atlantic coast of Massachusetts at Martha's Vineyard. Model predictions of mine scour and burial are in reasonable agreement with field measurements and underwater photographs.