Correction to: New insights into the rainfall variability in the tropical Andes on seasonal and interannual time scales

Climate Dynamics - The original version of the article contained errors in Fig.     

Climatic factors controlling plant sensitivity to warming

Plant sensitivity to warming can be expressed as β or the number of days of advance in leafing or flowering events per 1 °C of Mean Annual Temperature (MAT) change. Many local studies demonstrate that β estimates for spring flowering species are usually larger than estimates for plants flowering in summer or fall. Until now, however, neither observational nor experimental estimates of this parameter were considered to be climate or geographically dependent. Here we question this paradigm through reanalysis of observational β estimates and mathematical modeling of the seasonal warming signal. Statistical analysis of a large number of bulk (averaged over species) estimates of β derived from the Pan European Phenology Data network (PEP725) revealed a positive spatial correlation with MAT, as well as a negative correlation with the Seasonal Temperature Range (STR). These spatial correlations of bulk β values as well as interseasonal variability in β were explained using a simple deterministic model of the Thermal Growing Season (TGS). More specifically, we found that the geographic distribution of bulk plant sensitivity to warming as well as the seasonal decline of β were controlled by the seasonal patterns in the warming signal and by average soil thermal properties. Thus, until recently, plants managed to keep pace with climate warming by shifting their leafing and flowering events by the same number of days as the length of the period of weather suitable for their growth. Our model predicts, however, an even greater increase in the TGS for subsequent increases in MAT. Depending on how they interact with other factors such as changes in precipitation and increased temperature variability, these longer thermal growing seasons may not be beneficial for plant growth.     

Monitoring the regional and temporal variability of winter snowfall in the arid Andes using digital NOAA/AVHRR data

Abstract

This paper deals with the spatial distribution and the temporal variability of snowfall in the most arid part of the Andes (18°‐ 28°S) during southern hemisphere winter (May‐September). As the official precipitation data is of poor quality, analyses were carried out by means of digital image processing techniques, using NOAA/AVHRR satellite‐data. Through analysis of 24 different snowfall events from six winters, a previously unknown spatial and temporal precipitation pattern in this remote and unexplored area was revealed. Snowfall is most abundant in the southernmost part of the research area and on the western side of the Andes, indicating the Pacific origin of the snowfall.

Nevertheless, the typical snowfall pattern is modified during different periods of the winter. Three typical time periods could be defined and distinguished from one another. Each of these three periods is characterized by typical weather conditions (cold fronts and “cut‐offs “) leading to a distinct snowfall pattern.

As this study is part of a broader paleoclimatic project, the results will serve as a basis for paleoclimatic reconstruction of past climate. Only by knowing the modern circulation and precipitation patterns is it possible to interpret paleoclimatic signals and archives found in the study area (e.g. paleosol, moraines) correctly.     

Non-linear behaviour of the pulsating white dwarf G29-38 – I. Evolution of the temporal spectrum

An analysis of the evolution of the amplitude spectrum over many seasons of the DA pulsating white dwarf G29-38 has been performed. Neither beating nor resonant mode coupling can account for the observed appearance and disappearance of modes, although some of them clearly grow while others get damped. Therefore some unknown non-adiabatic, non-linear process has to be invoked that affects both the mode selection mechanism and the driving efficiency on a time-scale as short as a day.     

Glacier mass balance variability in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru and its relationship with climate and the large-scale circulation

A 41-year-long reconstructed annual mean glacier mass balance record from the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, was investigated for its climate sensitivity toward temperature, humidity and precipitation, and its links with the large-scale atmospheric circulation. On interannual timescales precipitation variability appears to be the main driver for glacier mass balance fluctuations in the Cordillera Blanca. This is corroborated by an analysis of the relationship between mass balance variations and local- to regional-scale precipitation variability. Temperature tends to enhance precipitation in driving the mass balance signal, as dry years are often characterized by warm conditions, while wet years usually coincide with cold anomalies. In some years, however, warm and wet or cold and dry conditions coincide, under which circumstances temperature minimizes or even neutralizes the effects of precipitation. Surface energy balance studies have shown that changes in atmospheric humidity significantly affect the melt rates of tropical glaciers, but the lack of long and high-quality in-situ measurements precludes a detailed quantitative assessment of its role on interannual timescales in the Cordillera Blanca. Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific exert the dominant large-scale forcing on interannual time scales, leading to negative mass balance anomalies during El Niño and above average mass balance during La Niña episodes. In general the teleconnection mechanism linking ENSO with glacier mass balance is similar to what has previously been described for the Bolivian Altiplano region. Changes in the upper-tropospheric zonal flow aloft associated with ENSO conditions determine the amount of snowfall during the wet season and thereby significantly affect the glacier mass balance. Because this teleconnection mechanism is spatially unstable and oscillates latitudinally along the subtropical Andes, it affects the Cordillera Blanca in most, but not all years. The relationship between ENSO and glacier mass balance is therefore characterized by occasional ‘break downs’, more common since the mid-1970's, when El Niño years with above average mass balance and La Niña events with negative mass balance have been observed.     

Paleotemperature reconstruction in tropical Africa using fossil Chironomidae (Insecta: Diptera)

Fossil assemblages of chironomid larvae (non-biting midges) preserved in lake sediments are well-established paleothermometers in north-temperate and boreal regions, but their potential for temperature reconstruction in tropical regions has never before been assessed. In this study, we surveyed sub-fossil chironomid assemblages in the surface sediments of 65 lakes and permanent pools in southwestern Uganda (including the Rwenzori Mountains) and central and southern Kenya (including Mount Kenya) to document the modern distribution of African chironomid communities along the regional temperature gradient covered by lakes situated between 489 and 4,575 m above sea level (a.s.l). We then combined these faunal data with linked Surface-Water Temperature (SWTemp: range 2.1–28.1°C) and Mean Annual Air Temperature (MATemp: range 1.1–24.9°C) data to develop inference models for quantitative paleotemperature reconstruction. Here we compare and discuss the performance of models based on different numerical techniques [weighted-averaging (WA), weighted-averaging partial-least-squares (WA-PLS) and a weighted modern analogue technique (WMAT)], and on subsets of lakes with varying gradient lengths of temperature and other environmental variables. All inference models calibrated against MATemp have a high coefficient of determination ( r_\textjack² r_{\text{jack}}^{2}  = 0.81–0.97), low maximum bias (0.84–2.59°C), and low root-mean-squared error of prediction (RMSEP = 0.61–1.50°C). The statistical power of SWTemp models is generally weaker ( r_\textjack² r_{\text{jack}}^{2}  = 0.77–0.95; maximum bias 1.55–3.73°C; RMSEP = 1.39–1.98°C), likely because the surface-water temperature data are spot measurements failing to catch significant daily and seasonal variation. Models based on calibration over the full temperature gradient suffer slightly from the limited number of study sites at intermediate elevation (2,000–3,000 m), and from the presence of morphologically indistinguishable but ecologically distinct taxa. Calibration confined to high-elevation sites (>3,000 m) has poorer error statistics, but is less susceptible to biogeographical and taxonomic complexities. Our results compare favourably with chironomid-based temperature inferences in temperate regions, indicating that chironomid-based temperature reconstruction in tropical Africa can be achieved.     

Stable isotopes in precipitation recording South American summer monsoon and ENSO variability: observations and model results

The South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) is a prominent feature of summertime climate over South America and has been identified in a number of paleoclimatic records from across the continent, including records based on stable isotopes. The relationship between the stable isotopic composition of precipitation and interannual variations in monsoon strength, however, has received little attention so far. Here we investigate how variations in the intensity of the SASM influence δ¹⁸O in precipitation based on both observational data and Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) simulations. An index of vertical wind shear over the SASM entrance (low level) and exit (upper level) region over the western equatorial Atlantic is used to define interannual variations in summer monsoon strength. This index is closely correlated with variations in deep convection over tropical and subtropical South America during the mature stage of the SASM. Observational data from the International Atomic Energy Agency-Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (IAEA-GNIP) and from tropical ice cores show a significant negative association between δ¹⁸O and SASM strength over the Amazon basin, SE South America and the central Andes. The more depleted stable isotopic values during intense monsoon seasons are consistent with the so-called ’‘amount effect‘’, often observed in tropical regions. In many locations, however, our results indicate that the moisture transport history and the degree of rainout upstream may be more important factors explaining interannual variations in δ¹⁸O. In many locations the stable isotopic composition is closely related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), even though the moisture source is located over the tropical Atlantic and precipitation is the result of the southward expansion and intensification of the SASM during austral summer. ENSO induces significant atmospheric circulation anomalies over tropical South America, which affect both SASM precipitation and δ¹⁸O variability. Therefore many regions show a weakened relationship between SASM and δ¹⁸O, once the SASM signal is decomposed into its ENSO-, and non-ENSO-related variance.     

Recent changes in the precipitation-driving processes over the southern tropical Andes/western Amazon

Climate Dynamics - Analyzing December–February (DJF) precipitation in the southern tropical Andes—STA ($$12^{\circ }\,\hbox {S}$$–$$20^{\circ }\,\hbox {S}$$; > 3000...     

20th Century Climate Change in the Tropical Andes: Observations and Model Results

Linear trend analysis of observational data combined with model diagnostics from an atmospheric general circulation model are employed to search for potential mechanisms related to the observed glacier retreat in the tropical Andes between 1950 and 1998. Observational evidence indicates that changes in precipitation amount or cloud cover over the last decades are minor in most regions and are therefore rather unlikely to have caused the observed retreat. The only exception is in southern Peru and western Bolivia where there is a general tendency toward slightly drier conditions. Near-surface temperature on the other hand has increased significantly throughout most of the tropical Andes. The temperature increase varies markedly between the eastern and western Andean slopes with a much larger temperature increase to the west. Simulations with the ECHAM-4 model, forced with observed global sea surface temperatures (SST) realistically reproduce the observed warming trend as well as the spatial trend pattern. Model results further suggest that a significant fraction of the observed warming can be traced to a concurrent rise in SST in the equatorial Pacific and that the markedly different trends in cloud cover to the east and west of the Andes contributed to the weaker warming east of the Andes in the model. The observed increase in relative humidity, derived from CRU 05 data, is also apparent in the model simulations, but on a regional scale the results between model and observations vary significantly. It is argued that changes in temperature and humidity are the primary cause for the observed glacier retreat during the 2nd half of the 20th century in the tropical Andes.