Quantifying temporal changes in Tornionjoki river ice breakup dates and spring temperatures in Lapland since 1802

Cryophenological records （i.e. observational series of freeze and breakup dates of ice） are of great importance when assessing the environmental variations in cold regions. Here we employed the extraordinarily long observational records of river ice breakup dates and air temperatures in northern Fennoscandia to examine their interrelations since 1802. Historical observations, along with modern data, comprise the informational setting for this analysis carried out using t-test. Temperature history of April-May season was used as cli- matic counterpart for the breakup timings. Both records （temperature and breakup） showed seven sub-periods during which their local means were distinctly different relative to preced- ing and subsequent sub-periods. The starting and ending years of these sub-periods oc- curred in temporal agreement. The main findings of this study are summarized as follows： （1） the synchrony between the temperature and river ice breakup records ruled out the possibility that the changes would have occurred due to quality of the historical series （i.e. inhomoge- neity problems often linked to historical time-series）; （2） the studied records agreed to show lower spring temperatures and later river ice breakups during the 19th century, in comparison to the 20th century conditions, evidencing the prevalence of cooler spring temperatures in the study region, in agreement with the concept of the Little Ice Age （1570-1900） climate in North-West Europe; （3） the most recent sub-period demonstrate the highest spring tem- peratures with concomitantly earliest river ice breakups, showing the relative warmth of the current springtime climate in the study region in the context of the past two centuries; （4） the effects of anthropogenic changes in the river environment （e.g. construction and demolition of dams） during the 20th century should be considered for non-climatic variations in the breakup records; （5） this study emphasizes the importance of multi-centurial （i.e. historical） cryo- phenological information for highly interesting viewpoints of climate and environmental his- tory.     

Consequences of powerful volcanic eruptions according to dendrochronological data

For the first time we identify the peculiarities of the effect of the most powerful (VEI > 5) volcanic eruptions on the regional climate of the Murmansk region on the basis of Kola Peninsula dendrochronological data for a period of more than 560 years. The analysis was based on the tree-ring chronology covering the period from 1445 to 2005. This chronology was derived from Pinus sylvestris samples collected near the northern tree line at Loparskaya station (68°37′ N; 33°14′ E). The data were processed using modern techniques adopted in dendrochronology (cross dating and standardization). We reveal a significant decrease in the radial tree-ring growth over 8 years (on average) after the eruptions; then its value is restored to the normal level. This finding will help evaluate the response of the regional climate system to external climate forcings in this economically important region for Russia.     

Advance of Norway spruce (Picea abies) onto mafic Lommoltunturi fell in Finnish Lapland during the last 200 years

As a result of global changes, shifts of alpine tree lines towards higher elevations have been recorded, but the role of the spatial variability of the snowpack and zonal‐pattern soil‐nutrient regimes is poorly understood. Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst) is best suited to fertile soils, and hence we applied soil physical‐chemical and snow measurements and the age chronology of Norway spruce along an elevational gradient (380–557 m a.s.l.) to address a vertical soil zonality hypothesis on mafic Lommoltunturi fell in Finnish Lapland. With regard to increasing elevation, we found an increase in soil N_TOT, C_TOT and Al, but a decrease in soil Ca, Mg and Ca:Al ratio as well as in electrical conductivity (EC). In addition, the snowpack was significantly thicker in low‐elevation forest than in the tree line and open tundra. In the 1840s, spruce established on low‐elevation soils with a Ca:Al ratio of 2.2. Starting from the 1920s a significant shift of spruce occurred such that it took 60 years to expand the tree line by 55 m in elevation. The spruce tree line has advanced, and the age distribution indicates new colonization of spruce in closed forest up to tundra. The poor soil Ca:Al ratio of 0.02 on tundra apparently is a constraint for spruce. Spruce forest is young (<165 years), and hence we argue that spruce has expanded onto formerly tree‐free sites of this mafic fell. This paper demonstrates that vertical soil zonality is a potential driver for the diffuse tree line of Picea abies on mafic Fennoscandian fells.     

Detection of climate signal in dendrochronological data analysis: a comparison of tree-ring standardization methods

Summary Tree-ring standardization methods were compared. Traditional methods along with the recently introduced approaches of regional curve standardization (RCS) and power-transformation (PT) were included. The difficulty in removing non-climatic variation (noise) while simultaneously preserving the low-frequency variability in the tree-ring series was emphasized. The potential risk of obtaining inflated index values was analysed by comparing methods to extract tree-ring indices from the standardization curve. The material for the tree-ring series, previously used in several palaeoclimate predictions, came from living and dead wood of high-latitude Scots pine in northernmost Europe. This material provided a useful example of a long composite tree-ring chronology with the typical strengths and weaknesses of such data, particularly in the context of standardization. PT stabilized the heteroscedastic variation in the original tree-ring series more efficiently than any other standardization practice expected to preserve the low-frequency variability. RCS showed great potential in preserving variability in tree-ring series at centennial time scales; however, this method requires a homogeneous sample for reliable signal estimation. It is not recommended to derive indices by subtraction without first stabilizing the variance in the case of series of forest-limit tree-ring data. Index calculation by division did not seem to produce inflated chronology values for the past one and a half centuries of the chronology (where mean sample cambial age is high). On the other hand, potential bias of high RCS chronology values was observed during the period of anomalously low mean sample cambial age. An alternative technique for chronology construction was proposed based on series age decomposition, where indices in the young vigorously behaving part of each series are extracted from the curve by division and in the mature part by subtraction. Because of their specific nature, the dendrochronological data here should not be generalized to all tree-ring records. The examples presented should be used as guidelines for detecting potential sources of bias and as illustrations of the usefulness of tree-ring records as palaeoclimate indicators.     

Mid‐ and late Holocene tree population density changes in northern Fennoscandia derived by a new method using megafossil pines and their tree‐ring series

Changes in tree density are estimated for the northern forest‐limit region of Finnish Lapland over the past seven and a half millennia. This is done using dendrochronologically dated Scots pine megafossils and their tree‐ring series. Direct and indirect estimates of past tree density are derived from chronology sample size (CSS) and growth trend modelling (GTM) respectively. The latter is a new method, where the past levels of growth competition (the influence of nearby trees) are extracted from the behaviour of growth trends in cross‐dated tree‐ring series, trends that are expected to be driven by tree‐density control. Two records constructed from the same original data set but by different means (independently) correlate significantly. Both records show a tree‐density maximum around 3000–1750 BC , indicating relative warmth during that time. Another positive tree‐density anomaly occurred in accordance with the ‘Medieval Warm Period’, preceding the thinning at the forest‐limit due to the ‘Little Ice Age’. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

European summer temperature response to annually dated volcanic eruptions over the past nine centuries

The drop in temperature following large volcanic eruptions has been identified as an important component of natural climate variability. However, due to the limited number of large eruptions that occurred during the period of instrumental observations, the precise amplitude of post-volcanic cooling is not well constrained. Here we present new evidence on summer temperature cooling over Europe in years following volcanic eruptions. We compile and analyze an updated network of tree-ring maximum latewood density chronologies, spanning the past nine centuries, and compare cooling signatures in this network with exceptionally long instrumental station records and state-of-the-art general circulation models. Results indicate post-volcanic June–August cooling is strongest in Northern Europe 2 years after an eruption (?0.52?±?0.05 °C), whereas in Central Europe the temperature response is smaller and occurs 1 year after an eruption (?0.18?±?0.07 °C). We validate these estimates by comparison with the shorter instrumental network and evaluate the statistical significance of post-volcanic summer temperature cooling in the context of natural climate variability over the past nine centuries. Finding no significant post-volcanic temperature cooling lasting longer than 2 years, our results question the ability of large eruptions to initiate long-term temperature changes through feedback mechanisms in the climate system. We discuss the implications of these findings with respect to the response seen in general circulation models and emphasize the importance of considering well-documented, annually dated eruptions when assessing the significance of volcanic forcing on continental-scale temperature variations.     

Unprecedented low twentieth century winter sea ice extent in the Western Nordic Seas since A.D. 1200

We reconstructed decadal to centennial variability of maximum sea ice extent in the Western Nordic Seas for A.D. 1200–1997 using a combination of a regional tree-ring chronology from the timberline area in Fennoscandia and δ¹⁸O from the Lomonosovfonna ice core in Svalbard. The reconstruction successfully explained 59% of the variance in sea ice extent based on the calibration period 1864–1997. The significance of the reconstruction statistics (reduction of error, coefficient of efficiency) is computed for the first time against a realistic noise background. The twentieth century sustained the lowest sea ice extent values since A.D. 1200: low sea ice extent also occurred before (mid-seventeenth and mid-eighteenth centuries, early fifteenth and late thirteenth centuries), but these periods were in no case as persistent as in the twentieth century. Largest sea ice extent values occurred from the seventeenth to the nineteenth centuries, during the Little Ice Age (LIA), with relatively smaller sea ice-covered area during the sixteenth century. Moderate sea ice extent occurred during thirteenth–fifteenth centuries. Reconstructed sea ice extent variability is dominated by decadal oscillations, frequently associated with decadal components of the North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO), and multi-decadal lower frequency oscillations operating at ~50–120 year. Sea ice extent and NAO showed a non-stationary relationship during the observational period. The present low sea ice extent is unique over the last 800 years, and results from a decline started in late-nineteenth century after the LIA.     

Recurrent transitions to Little Ice Age-like climatic regimes over the Holocene

Holocene climate variability is punctuated by episodic climatic events such as the Little Ice Age (LIA) predating the industrial-era warming. Their dating and forcing mechanisms have however remained controversial. Even more crucially, it is uncertain whether earlier events represent climatic regimes similar to the LIA. Here we produce and analyse a new 7500-year long palaeoclimate record tailored to detect LIA-like climatic regimes from northern European tree-ring data. In addition to the actual LIA, we identify LIA-like ca. 100–800 year periods with cold temperatures combined with clear sky conditions from 540 CE, 1670 BCE, 3240 BCE and 5450 BCE onwards, these LIA-like regimes covering 20% of the study period. Consistent with climate modelling, the LIA-like regimes originate from a coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice North Atlantic-Arctic system and were amplified by volcanic activity (multiple eruptions closely spaced in time), tree-ring evidence pointing to similarly enhanced LIA-like regimes starting after the eruptions recorded in 1627 BCE, 536/540 CE and 1809/1815 CE. Conversely, the ongoing decline in Arctic sea-ice extent is mirrored in our data which shows reversal of the LIA-like conditions since the late nineteenth century, our record also correlating highly with the instrumentally recorded Northern Hemisphere and global temperatures over the same period. Our results bridge the gaps between low- and high-resolution, precisely dated proxies and demonstrate the efficacy of slow and fast components of the climate system to generate LIA-like climate regimes.