Meridional propagation of large-scale monsoon convective zones

Summary Observational studies indicate that the convective activity of the monsoon systems undergo intraseasonal variations with multi-week time scales. The zone of maximum monsoon convection exhibits substantial transient behavior with successive propagating from the North Indian Ocean to the heated continent. Over South Asia the zone achieves its maximum intensity. These propagations may extend over 3000 km in latitude and perhaps twice the distance in longitude and remain as coherent entities for periods greater than 2–3 weeks. Attempts to explain this phenomena using simple ocean-atmosphere models of the monsoon system had concluded that the interactive ground hydrology so modifies the total heating of the atmosphere that a steady state solution is not possible, thus promoting lateral propagation. That is, the ground hydrology forces the total heating of the atmosphere and the vertical velocity to be slightly out of phase, causing a migration of the convection towards the region of maximum heating. Whereas the lateral scale of the variations produced by the Webster (1983) model were essentially correct, they occurred at twice the frequency of the observed events and were formed near the coastal margin, rather than over the ocean.Webster's (1983) model used to pose the theories was deficient in a number of aspects. Particularly, both the ground moisture content and the thermal inertia of the model were severely underestimated. At the same time, the sea surface temperatures produced by the model between the equator and the model's land-sea boundary were far too cool. Both the atmosphere and the ocean model were modified to include a better hydrological cycle and ocean structure. The convective events produced by the modified model possessed the observed frequency and were generated well south of the coastline.The improved simulation of monsoon variability allowed the hydrological cycle feedback to be generalized. It was found that monsoon variability was constrained to lie within the bounds of a positive gradient of aconvective intensity potential (I). The function depends primarily on the surface temperature, the availability of moisture and the stability of the lower atmosphere which varies very slowly on the time scale of months. The oscillations of the monsoon perturb the mean convective intensity potential causing local enhancements of the gradient. These perturbations are caused by the hydrological feedbacks, discussed above, or by the modification of the air-sea fluxes caused by variations of the low level wind during convective events. The final result is the slow northward propagation of convection within an even slower convective regime. The ECMWF analyses show very similar behavior of the convective intensity potential. Although it is considered premature to use the model to conduct simulations of the African monsoon system, the ECMWF analysis indicates similar behavior in the convective intensity potential suggesting, at least, that the same processes control the low frequency structure of the African monsoon. The implications of the hypotheses on numerical weather prediction of monsoon phenomenon are discussed.     

Active and break spells of the Indian summer monsoon

In this paper, we suggest criteria for the identification of active and break events of the Indian summer monsoon on the basis of recently derived high resolution daily gridded rainfall dataset over India (1951–2007). Active and break events are defined as periods during the peak monsoon months of July and August, in which the normalized anomaly of the rainfall over a critical area, called the monsoon core zone exceeds 1 or is less than −1.0 respectively, provided the criterion is satisfied for at least three consecutive days. We elucidate the major features of these events. We consider very briefly the relationship of the intraseasonal fluctuations between these events and the interannual variation of the summer monsoon rainfall.     

Time-dependent topographic meandering of a baroclinic current

The effects of baroclinic instability of a broad ocean current, flowing in an ocean basin with a plane sloping bottom, on the path of the current are studied. The set of equations governing this path and its variation with depth are the vorticity equation and the heat equation. It is assumed that the vertical and horizontal temperature contrasts are comparable as suggested by observations of the Gulf Stream. When quasi-geostrophy is assumed in addition, this implies that the leading contribution to the heat equation does not contain the vertical advection of the basic stratification. This corresponds to the long-wave approximation of the usual baroclinic-instability problem. The heat equation determines the vertical variation of the path and when this is combined with the vorticity equation, the equation governing the path at one level is obtained. The path equation requires a specification of the direction and curvature at the inlet and these conditions are taken to be time-dependent. When these conditions contain frequencies for which the current is unstable, meanders in the path of the current increase in amplitude downstream of the inlet. When the path at the inlet changes suddenly from one parallel to the isobaths to one making a small angle with them, the region of instability in which the amplitude of the meanders increases, is confined to a restricted segment of the path, at soms distance from the inlet. This region becomes advected with the basic current, and its extent increases with time. The amplitude of the meanders in this region increases while their wavelength decreases in time because the shorter waves are unstabler. The increase in amplitude and decrease in wavelength in a restricted segment of the path could lead to eddy formation in a finite-amplitude model and may therefore suggest a mechanism for eddy formation in the Gulf Stream.     

CARBON FLOW IN INDIAN FORESTS

The present study estimates the net emission of carbon from the forest sector in India. For the reference year (1986), the gross emission from deforestation in that year, plus committed emissions from deforestation in the preceding years, is estimated to be 64 × 10⁶ t of C. The carbon sequestration (or net woody biomass accumulation in trees for long-term storage) from the area brought under tree plantations and the existing forest area under forest succession is estimated to offset the gross carbon emission in India, leading to no net emissions of carbon from the forest sector. Medium-term projections for India (for the year 2011) show that under a business as usual scenario at current rates of afforestation, projected carbon emissions would continue to be balanced by sequestration.     

Perception and knowledge about climate change and health problems: a study in Kolkata Metropolitan Region

In the twenty-first century, land use changes, massive expansion of urbanization, population growth, economic crisis, environmental issues are the main challenges of developing countries. Climate change and its effects on human health are the major concerns for the different age groups of the population. The study delved into the causes associated with climate change and climate change-related myriad health impacts on the study population. This study has used a concurrent mixed-method research design. The quantitative and qualitative data were collected from the study area. Perception and knowledge about climate change and its consequences on health was based on a quantitative approach of Bi-variate analysis and Chi-Square test and Fisher’s exact test; this study also used qualitative data analysis. Study results show that most respondents pointed out that temperature increases throughout the year and 90% of the respondents reported that rainfall pattern has also changed. Similarly, 65% of respondents agreed in their statements in favour of increased natural calamities in this region. The study findings show that more than 40% of population faces dengue fever and 10% of people also suffer from malaria. More than 60% of the urban population suffered from asthma. Similarly, more than 70% of the population also got affected by cold and cough due to weather variability. Focus Group Discussion (FGD) and In-depth interviews of the participants also affirmed the fact that climate variability induced diseases and health problems in Kolkata Metropolitan areas. Urban residents perceived that excessive urbanization contributes to the changes in regional climate and human health. The study will encourage the policy-makers and local government to mitigate adverse health effects driven by climate change in the Kolkata Metropolitan Region.

     

Intense rainfall events over the west coast of India

Summary The west coast of the Indian peninsula receives very heavy rainfall during the summer Monsoon (June–September) season with average rainfall over some parts exceeding 250 cm. Heavy rainfall events with rainfall more than 15 cm day⁻¹ at one or more stations along the west coast of India occur frequently and cause considerable damage. A special observational programme, Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment, was carried out during the monsoon season of 2002 to study these events. The spatial and temporal distributions of intense rainfall events, presented here, were used for the planning of this observational campaign. The present study using daily rainfall data for summer monsoon season of 37 years (1951–1987) shows that the probability of getting intense rainfall is the maximum between 14° N–16° N and near 19° N. The probability of occurrence of these intense rainfall events is high from mid June to mid August, with a dip in early July. It has been believed for a long time that offshore troughs and vortices are responsible for these intense rainfall events. However, analysis of the characteristics of cloud systems associated with the intense rainfall events during 1985–1988 using very high resolution brightness temperature data from INSAT-IB satellite shows that the cloud systems during these events are characterized by large spatial scales and high cloud tops. Further study using daily satellite derived outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data over a longer period (1975–1998) shows that, most of these events (about 62%) are associated with systems organized on synoptic and larger scales. We find that most of the offshore convective systems responsible for intense rainfall along the west coast of India are linked to the atmospheric conditions over equatorial Indian Ocean.     

Time‐dependent topographic meandering

Abstract

The time‐dependent flow of a broad current over a uniformly sloping sea bottom is considered. Simple wave motions are discussed, the establishment of a steady meander is analysed, the response to slow variations in the transport of the current is explored, and the general relationship of the path of the meandering current to initial (Cauchy) data is determined. The results are used in the design of an experiment in the Gulf Stream which was performed in the summer of 1969.     

Towards understanding the unusual Indian monsoon in 2009

The Indian summer monsoon season of 2009 commenced with a massive deficit in all-India rainfall of 48% of the average rainfall in June. The all-India rainfall in July was close to the normal but that in August was deficit by 27%. In this paper, we first focus on June 2009, elucidating the special features and attempting to identify the factors that could have led to the large deficit in rainfall. In June 2009, the phase of the two important modes, viz., El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) was unfavourable. Also, the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO) was warmer than in other years and much warmer than the Bay. In almost all the years, the opposite is true, i.e., the Bay is warmer than EEIO in June. It appears that this SST gradient gave an edge to the tropical convergence zone over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, in competition with the organized convection over the Bay. Thus, convection was not sustained for more than three or four days over the Bay and no northward propagations occurred. We suggest that the reversal of the sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between the Bay of Bengal and EEIO, played a critical role in the rainfall deficit over the Bay and hence the Indian region. We also suggest that suppression of convection over EEIO in association with the El Niño led to a positive phase of EQUINOO in July and hence revival of the monsoon despite the El Niño. It appears that the transition to a negative phase of EQUINOO in August and the associated large deficit in monsoon rainfall can also be attributed to the El Niño.     

Orographic effects on the southwest monsoon: A review

An overview of the problem of orographic effects on the southwest monsoon using the contributions of all the available analytical and numerical models is attempted. A quasi-geostrophic model is applied to deduce the effect of the topographic complex on the Indian peninsula. This model suggests that the southward bending of the low-level isobars on the peninsula can be ascribed to the topographically-induced southward velocity. This southward velocity triggers a Rossby wave to the east of the peninsula which is manifested as a trough on the southern Bay of Bengal.