Enhanced residual mean circulation during the evolution of split type sudden stratospheric warming in observations and model simulations

Residual mean circulation changes during the evolution of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) are investigated by composite analyses of 76 major warming events identified in a present day simulation performed with a coupled ocean–troposphere–stratosphere model from 299 winters. Their dynamical signatures are compared with the 17 SSW events identified from 35 years of Era-Interim data. The main difference is that, relative frequency of simulated SSW events is smaller than that obtained from reanalysis. SSW events are classified as displacement or split events based on the geopotential field values at 10 hPa. The geopotential field values identify 10 and 3 split events in simulation and observation respectively. The model quite accurately simulates some of the dynamical features associated with the major SSW. Residual mean circulation induced by EP-flux divergence, sum of advection and residual forcing are stronger in split events than in displacement type SSW has been confirmed by both simulation and observation. Moreover, the contribution of EP-flux divergence or planetary wave forcing is larger than the contribution of other types of forcing.     

Variable influence on the equatorial troposphere associated with SSW using ERA-Interim

Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events are identified to investigate their influence on the equatorial tropospheric climate. Composite analysis of warming events from Era-Interim (1979–2013) record a cooling of the tropical lower stratosphere with corresponding changes in the mean meridional stratospheric circulation. A cooling of the upper troposphere induces enhanced convective activity near the equatorial region of the Southern Hemisphere and suppressed convective activity in the off-equatorial Northern Hemisphere. After selecting vortex splits, the see-saw pattern of convective activity in the troposphere grows prominent and robust.     

Variability and trends of major stratospheric warmings in simulations under constant and increasing GHG concentrations

Ensemble simulations with a coupled ocean-troposphere-stratosphere model for the pre-industrial era (1860 AD), late twentieth century (1990 AD) greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, the SRES scenarios B1, A1B, A2, as well as stabilization experiments up to the Twenty-third century with B1 and A1B scenario GHG concentrations at their values at 2100, have been analyzed with regard to the occurrence of major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). An automated algorithm using 60°N and 10 hPa zonal wind and the temperature gradient between 60°N and the North Pole is used to identify this phenomenon in the large data set. With 1990 CO₂ concentrations (352 ppmv), the frequency of simulated SSWs in February and March is comparable to observation, but they are underestimated during November to January. All simulations show an increase in the number of SSWs from the pre-industrial period to the end of the twenty-first century, indicating that the increase of GHG is also reflected in the number of sudden warmings. However, a high variability partially masks the underlying trend. Multi-century averages during the stabilization periods indicate that the increase of SSWs is linear to the applied radiative forcing. A doubling of SSWs occurs when the GHG concentration reaches the level of the A2 scenario at the end of the twenty-first century (836 ppmv). The increase in SSWs in the projections is caused by a combination of increased wave flux from the troposphere and weaker middle atmospheric zonal winds.     

Regional Arctic sea ice variations as predictor for winter climate conditions

Seasonal prediction skill of winter mid and high northern latitudes climate from sea ice variations in eight different Arctic regions is analyzed using detrended ERA-interim data and satellite sea ice data for the period 1980–2013. We find significant correlations between ice areas in both September and November and winter sea level pressure, air temperature and precipitation. The prediction skill is improved when using November sea ice conditions as predictor compared to September. This is particularly true for predicting winter NAO-like patterns and blocking situations in the Euro-Atlantic area. We find that sea ice variations in Barents Sea seem to be most important for the sign of the following winter NAO—negative after low ice—but amplitude and extension of the patterns are modulated by Greenland and Labrador Seas ice areas. November ice variability in the Greenland Sea provides the best prediction skill for central and western European temperature and ice variations in the Laptev/East Siberian Seas have the largest impact on the blocking number in the Euro-Atlantic region. Over North America, prediction skill is largest using September ice areas from the Pacific Arctic sector as predictor. Composite analyses of high and low regional autumn ice conditions reveal that the atmospheric response is not entirely linear suggesting changing predictive skill dependent on sign and amplitude of the anomaly. The results confirm the importance of realistic sea ice initial conditions for seasonal forecasts. However, correlations do seldom exceed 0.6 indicating that Arctic sea ice variations can only explain a part of winter climate variations in northern mid and high latitudes.     

Modeling the combined impact of changing climate and changing nutrient loads on the Baltic Sea environment in an ensemble of transient simulations for 1961–2099

The combined future impacts of climate change and industrial and agricultural practices in the Baltic Sea catchment on the Baltic Sea ecosystem were assessed. For this purpose 16 transient simulations for 1961–2099 using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea were performed. Four climate scenarios were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). Annual and seasonal mean changes of climate parameters and ecological quality indicators describing the environmental status of the Baltic Sea like bottom oxygen, nutrient and phytoplankton concentrations and Secchi depths were studied. Assuming present-day nutrient concentrations in the rivers, nutrient loads from land increase during the twenty first century in all investigated scenario simulations due to increased volume flows caused by increased net precipitation in the Baltic catchment area. In addition, remineralization rates increase due to increased water temperatures causing enhanced nutrient flows from the sediments. Cause-and-effect studies suggest that both processes may play an important role for the biogeochemistry of eutrophicated seas in future climate partly counteracting nutrient load reduction efforts like the BSAP.