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1.
Meso-gamma scale forecasts using the nonhydrostatic model LM 总被引:10,自引:0,他引:10
J. Steppeler G. Doms U. Schättler H. W. Bitzer A. Gassmann U. Damrath G. Gregoric 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2003,82(1-4):75-96
Summary ?The nonhydrostatic model LM was developed for small scale operational predictions. Advances in computer development will
give the possibility of operational models of a rather fine scale, which will cover the meso-gamma scale. The LM is currently
applied at a scale of 7 km and an increase of the operational resolution to 2.5 km is planned for the next few years. Predictions
of such high resolution require to abandon the hydrostatic assumption, which is used with most current operational weather
prediction models. The LM was designed to cover all resolutions from 50 m to 50 km with an efficiency making it suitable for
operational use. It is a fully elastic model, using second order centred finite differences. The time integration is done
using the Klemp–Wilhelmson method, treating the slow modes by a larger time step than the fast modes. The vertical propagation
of the fast waves is done implicitly.
After describing the design of the LM, this paper gives examples of model predictions at the meso-γ scale. Some results of
the current operational application at the resolution 7 km are presented. Deficiencies in the localisation of model generated
precipitation are investigated using an idealised bell shaped mountain and applying different resolutions. In this way the
convergence to the correct solution can be investigated. From these results it is concluded, that orographic filtering is
necessary and the effect of such filtering on precipitation forecasts is investigated. Finally, the prediction of a squall
line over northern Germany is shown in order to demonstrate the potential of the model in forecasting the meso-γ scale.
Received May 15, 2001; revised September 21, 2001 相似文献
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J. Steppeler R. Hess U. Schättler L. Bonaventura 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2003,82(1-4):287-301
Summary ?Currently available computer power allows to run operational numerical weather prediction models at resolutions higher than
10 km. The aim of such high resolution modeling is the prediction of local weather, including orographically induced winds
and local precipitation patterns. In this range the hydrostatic approximation is no longer valid and nonhydrostatic models
have to be used instead. For several decades these models have been developed for research purposes only, but operational
application is now reality. In this paper, the numerical methods used in current nonhydrostatic forecast models will be reviewed
and some promising techniques in this field will be discussed. Special attention is given to aspects such as the choice of
the vertical coordinate, the efficiency of algebraic solvers for semi-implicit time discretizations, and accurate and non-oscillatory
advection schemes.
Received July 6, 2001; revision October 12, 2001 相似文献
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Culture,demography and biogeography of sponge science: From past conferences to strategic research? 下载免费PDF全文
Perceived changes in the culture of sponge science and sponge conferences served as motivation for an evaluation of the sponge science community and research, over time and at present. Observed changes included a decrease in proceedings publications on sponge fossils and freshwater sponges, sponges from temperate environments, review papers and data syntheses, frequency of aquarium studies, and number of species investigated per publication. Publications on recent sponges, hexactinellids, calcareans, marine, Indo‐Pacific and warm‐water sponges increased, as well as the number of authors per publication and the proportion of field studies. Studies at the level of specimens and ultrastructure were gradually replaced by molecular approaches, but studies at the community level remained stable. The five sub‐disciplines morphology/taxonomy, phylogeny/evolution, physiology, ecology and faunistics also retained about equal proportions over time. Conference publications related to taxonomy, phylogeny and biodiversity prevailed, whereas those on management and conservation were rare, possibly because studies on sponge recovery, survival and mortality were also scarce. The community of sponge scientists has grown and become more diverse over time, presently representing 72 nations. The gender distribution evened out since the first sponge conference and presently favours women at early and men at late career stages. Although stated research interests are generally dominated by physiology and ecology, taxonomy and evolution are favoured after retirement. Sponge science has become more dynamic, but maybe also more competitive and less inclusive. We now face the dual challenge of safeguarding against the loss of some sub‐disciplines, and fostering the collaborative, helpful culture characteristic of sponge science. 相似文献
6.
Geneviève Bordeleau Richard Martel Dirk Schäfer Guy Ampleman Sonia Thiboutot 《Environmental Geology》2008,55(2):385-396
Numerical modelling was done at the Cold Lake Air Weapons Range, Canada, to test whether the dissolved RDX and nitrate detected
in groundwater come from the same sources, and to predict whether contamination poses a threat to the surface water receptors
near the site. Military live fire training activities may indeed pose a risk of contamination to groundwater resources, however
field investigations on military bases are quite recent, and little information is available on the long-term behaviour of
munition residues related contaminants. Very limited information was available about the contaminant source zones, which were
assigned based on our knowledge of current training activities. The RDX plume was well represented with the model, but the
heterogeneous distribution of nitrate concentrations was more difficult to reproduce. It was nonetheless determined that both
contaminants originate from the same areas. According to the model, both contaminants should reach the nearby river, but concentrations
in the river should remain very low if the source zone concentration does not change. Finally, the model allowed the recommendation
of a new location for the main bombing target, which would offer added protection to the river and the lake into which it
flows. 相似文献
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Based on univariate correlation and coherence analyses and considering the physical basis of the relationships, a simple multiforced (multiple) statistical concept is used which correlates observational climatic time series simultaneously with volcanic, solar, ENSO, and the anthropogenic greenhouse gases forcing. This is appropriate to remove some natural climate noise in the observed data and to evaluate the components (signals) possibly due to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (CO2, or equivalent CO2 implying additional gases) during industrial time. In this paper, we apply this technique to 100 global box data time series 1890–1985, of the surface air temperature, using observed data from Hansen and Lebedeff. The results are presented in terms of latitudinal-seasonal and regional trends, where the observed trend patterns are compared with the hypothetical signals (statistical assessments) possibly due to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing. These latter signals can be amplified to enable a comparison with corresponding results from general circulation model (GCM) CO2 doubling experiments. These observed-statistical assessments lead to results which are, at least qualitatively and in respect to the zonal mean temperatures, very similar to some GCM experiments indicating the maximum CO2 doubling signals (statistical assessment > 12 K) in the arctic winter. However, these signals are moderate in the tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere (global average 2.8–4.4 K). As far as the industrial signals are concerned (observed period) these signals are somewhat larger (maximum 7 K, global average 0.5–0.9 K) than the observed trends (maximum 5 K, global average 0.5 K). Phase shifts of cause and effect may amplify these signals but are very uncertain.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil 相似文献
10.
Günter Helas Jürgen Lobert Dieter Scharffe Luise Schäfer Johann Goldammer Jean Baudet Brou Ahoua Ayité-Lô Ajavon Jean-Pierre Lacaux Robert Delmas Meinrat O. Andreae 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1995,22(1-2):163-174
Ozone has been observed in elevated concentrations by satellites over areas previously believed to be background. There is meteorological evidence, that these ozone plumes found over the Atlantic Ocean originate from vegetation fires on the African continent.In a previous study (DECAFE-88), we have investigated ozone and assumed precursor compounds over African tropical forest regions. Our measurements revealed large photosmog layers at altitudes from 1.5 to 4 km. Both chemical and meteorological evidence point to savanna fires up to several thousand km upwind as sources.Here we describe ozone mixing ratios observed over western Africa and compare ozone production ratios from different field measurement campaigns related to vegetation burning. We find that air masses containing photosmog ingredients require several days to develop their oxidation potential, similar to what is known from air polluted by emissions from fossil fuel burning. Finally, we estimate the global ozone production due to vegetation fires and conclude that this source is comparable in strength to the stratospheric input. 相似文献