Trends in northern midlatitude atmospheric wave power from 1950 to 2099

In a warming climate, atmospheric wave activity and associated weather patterns may change, although conflicting results have been reported on this topic. Additionally, atmospheric wave changes in a future climate have mainly focused on waves of a specified spatial scale, rather than a particular spatiotemporal scale. Here, changes in the variability of Rossby waves of multiple spatiotemporal scales are analyzed using the wavenumber-frequency power spectrum, a tool commonly applied to analyze atmospheric equatorial waves. Daily 500 hPa geopotential height data over 40°–60°N from historical (1950–2005) and future (2006–2099) simulations from 20 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under the RCP8.5 scenario were analyzed. When compared to the historical period, the late 21st century climate projections showed a decline in spectral power for both eastward and westward propagating waves with wavenumbers greater than 8 that spanned over all frequencies in all seasons, but an increase in mean power for eastward propagating waves with wavenumbers 1–7 over all frequencies was shown in winter and spring. This increase in power was accompanied by increased variance, i.e., an increased meridional extent of 500 hPa ridges and troughs, and was the result of increases in the mean number of high amplitude events and duration of activity within this wave band. These results indicate that large-scale (~ 104 km) eastward propagating weather systems may intensify with higher amplitudes for ridges and troughs, while short-scale (102–103 km) weather systems may decrease in their intensity due to reduced variability in the late 21st century under the high emissions scenario. Potential mechanisms for these changes are discussed, including enhanced Arctic warming and midlatitude-tropical interactions.     

Woodland expansion’s influence on belowground carbon and nitrogen in the Great Basin U.S.

Vegetation changes associated with climate shifts and anthropogenic disturbance can have major impacts on biogeochemical cycling and soils. Much of the Great Basin, U.S. is currently dominated by sagebrush (Artemisia tridentate (Rydb.) Boivin) ecosystems. Sagebrush ecosystems are increasingly influenced by pinyon (Pinus monophylla Torr. & Frém and Pinus edulis Engelm.) and juniper (Juniperus osteosperma Torr. and Juniperus occidentalis Hook.) expansion. Some scientists and policy makers believe that increasing woodland cover in the intermountain western U.S. offers the possibility of increased organic carbon (OC) storage on the landscape; however, little is currently known about the distribution of OC on these landscapes, or the role that nitrogen (N) plays in OC retention. We quantified the relationship between tree cover, belowground OC, and total below ground N in expansion woodlands at 13 sites in Utah, Oregon, Idaho, California, and Nevada, USA. One hundred and twenty nine soil cores were taken using a mechanically driven diamond tipped core drill to a depth of 90 cm. Soil, coarse fragments, and coarse roots were analyzed for OC and total N. Woodland expansion influenced the vertical distribution of root OC by increasing 15-30 cm root OC by 2.6 Mg ha⁻¹ and root N by 0.04 Mg ha⁻¹. Root OC and N increased through the entire profile by 3.8 and 0.06 Mg ha⁻¹ respectively. Woodland expansion influenced the vertical distribution of soil OC by increasing surface soil (0-15 cm) OC by 2.2 Mg ha⁻¹. Woodland expansion also caused a 1.3 Mg ha⁻¹ decrease in coarse fragment associated OC from 75-90 cm. Our data suggests that woodland expansion into sagebrush ecosystems has limited potential to store additional belowground OC, and must be weighed against the risk of increased wildfire and exotic grass invasion.     

Impact of land-atmospheric coupling in CFSv2 on drought prediction

Recent summers in the United States have been plagued by intense droughts that have caused significant damage to crops and have had a large impact on society. The ability to forecasts such events would allow for preparations that could help reduce the impact on society. Coupled land–atmosphere–ocean models were created to provide such forecasts but there are large uncertainties associated with their predictions. The predictive skill of these models is particularly low during the convective season due to the weaker connections with the oceans and an increase in the land–atmosphere interactions. To better understand the degradation of forecasts skill during the summer months and its connection to the land–atmosphere interactions we analyze National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) in terms of its climatological land–atmosphere interactions. To do this we use a recently developed classification of land–atmosphere interactions and other diagnostic variables to compare the reanalysis from the Climate Forecast System (CFSR) with CFSv2 re-forecasts (CFSRR) over the period 1982–2009. Coupling in the CFSRR tends toward the wet coupling regime for most areas east of the Rocky Mountains. Although the specific mechanism driving CFSRR to wet coupling state varies by region, the overall cause is enhanced vegetation rooting depth, originally implemented to address a near-surface warm bias in CFSR. The long-term tendency to wet coupling precludes the forecast model from consistently predicting and maintaining drought over the continental US.     

The MJO’s impact on rainfall trends over the Congo rainforest

Climate Dynamics - A significant declining trend in rainfall over the Congo basin has been observed over the past three decades. Since the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is a major forcing...     

Human behaviour and disease hazards: Spatial perspectives on rural health

Human behaviour in a given society and environment can result in behaviour-associated increases or decreases in local disease hazard. Following the concepts of health researchers Jacques May, E.N. Pavlovsky, J. Ralph Audy, and Frederick Dunn and the geographer Torsten Hägerstrand, the identity and spatial distribution of infectious disease hazards generated by normative behaviour of rural-dwelling Ethiopians are delineated. Graphic illustrations represent an Ethiopian highland village environment by a cross section of contact habitat cells. For Ethiopia, the probable disease hazards brought about by human behaviour associate with specific cells of this spatial cross section. The conclusion portrays the utility of identification by geographers of the spatial aspects of these human-generated hazards for improved programs of rural development in Third World areas.

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