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ABSTRACT. Beekeeping has the potential to supplement incomes in rural southern Africa. In light of regional economic constraints, self-reliance strategies that draw on local knowledge and skills take on a renewed importance. We consider the advantages and disadvantages of beekeeping and examine appropriate forms of development support. A short case study from Zimbabwe illustrates these issues. 相似文献
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Matthieu?LengaigneEmail author Eric?Guilyardi Jean-Philippe?Boulanger Christophe?Menkes Pascale?Delecluse Pete?Inness Jeff?Cole Julia?Slingo 《Climate Dynamics》2004,23(6):601-620
Two ten-members ensemble experiments using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model are performed to study the dynamical response to a strong westerly wind event (WWE) when the tropical Pacific has initial conditions favourable to the development of a warm event. In the reference ensemble (CREF), no wind perturbation is introduced, whereas a strong westerly wind event anomaly is introduced in boreal winter over the western Pacific in the perturbed ensemble (CWWE). Our results demonstrate that an intense WWE is capable of establishing the conditions under which a strong El Niño event can occur. First, it generates a strong downwelling Kelvin wave that generates a positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the central-eastern Pacific amplified through a coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction. This anomaly can be as large as 2.5°C 60 days after the WWE. Secondly, this WWE also initiates an eastward displacement of the warm-pool that promotes the occurrence of subsequent WWEs in the following months. These events reinforce the initial warming through the generation of additional Kelvin waves and generate intense surface jets at the eastern edge of the warm-pool that act to further shift warm waters eastward. The use of a ten-members ensemble however reveals substantial differences in the coupled response to a WWE. Whereas four members of CWWE ensemble develop into intense El Niño warming as described above, four others display a moderate warming and two remains in neutral conditions. This diversity between the members appears to be due to the internal atmospheric variability during and following the inserted WWE. In the four moderate warm cases, the warm-pool is initially shifted eastward following the inserted WWE, but the subsequent weak WWE activity (when compared to the strong warming cases) prevents to further shift the warm-pool eastwards. The seasonal strengthening of trade winds in June–July can therefore act to shift warm waters back into the western Pacific, reducing the central-eastern Pacific warming. This strong sensitivity of the coupled response to WWEs may therefore limit the predictability of El Niño events, as the high frequency wind variability over the warm pool region remains largely unpredictable even at short time lead. 相似文献
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Michael J. Hollaway Keith J. Beven Clare Mc W. H. Benskin Adrian L. Collins Robert Evans Peter D. Falloon Kirsty J. Forber Kevin M. Hiscock Ron Kahana Christopher J. A. Macleod Mary C. Ockenden Martha L. Villamizar Catherine Wearing Paul J. A. Withers Jian G. Zhou Nicholas J. Barber Philip M. Haygarth 《水文研究》2018,32(17):2779-2787
River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The “voting point”‐based method constrains the derived stage‐discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations. In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated “voting point” method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site. 相似文献
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Submarine lava flow morphology is commonly used to estimate relative flow velocity, but the effects of crystallinity and viscosity are rarely considered. We use digital petrography and quantitative textural analysis techniques to determine the crystallinity of submarine basaltic lava flows, using a set of samples from previously mapped lava flow fields at the hotspot-affected Galápagos Spreading Center. Crystallinity measurements were incorporated into predictive models of suspension rheology to characterize lava flow consistency and rheology. Petrologic data were integrated to estimate bulk lava viscosity. We compared the crystallinity and viscosity of each sample with its flow morphology to determine their respective roles in submarine lava emplacement dynamics. We find no correlation between crystallinity, bulk viscosity, and lava morphology, implying that flow advance rate is the primary control on submarine lava morphology. However, we show systematic variations in crystal size and shape distribution among pillows, lobates, and sheets, suggesting that these parameters are important indicators of eruption processes. Finally, we compared the characteristics of lavas from two different sampling sites with contrasting long-term magma supply rates. Differences between lavas from each study site illustrate the significant effect of magma supply on the physical properties of the oceanic upper crust. 相似文献
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In the automation of identification of landscape features the vagueness arises from the fact that the attributes and parameters that make up a landscape vary over space and scale. In most of existing studies, these two kinds of vagueness are studied separately. This paper investigates their combination in identification of coast landscape units. Fuzzy set theory is used to describe the vagueness of geomorphic features due to the continuity in space. The vagueness resulted from the scale of measurement is evaluated by statistic indicators. The differences of fuzzy objects derived from data at differing resolutions (in size from 3×3 cells to 25×25 cells) are studied in order to examine these higher-order uncertainties. 相似文献