Role of land state in a high resolution mesoscale model for simulating the Uttarakhand heavy rainfall event over India

In 2013, Indian summer monsoon witnessed a very heavy rainfall event (>30 cm/day) over Uttarakhand in north India, claiming more than 5000 lives and property damage worth approximately 40 billion USD. This event was associated with the interaction of two synoptic systems, i.e., intensified subtropical westerly trough over north India and north-westward moving monsoon depression formed over the Bay of Bengal. The event had occurred over highly variable terrain and land surface characteristics. Although global models predicted the large scale event, they failed to predict realistic location, timing, amount, intensity and distribution of rainfall over the region. The goal of this study is to assess the impact of land state conditions in simulating this severe event using a high resolution mesoscale model. The land conditions such as multi-layer soil moisture and soil temperature fields were generated from High Resolution Land Data Assimilation (HRLDAS) modelling system. Two experiments were conducted namely, (1) CNTL (Control, without land data assimilation) and (2) LDAS, with land data assimilation (i.e., with HRLDAS-based soil moisture and temperature fields) using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modelling system. Initial soil moisture correlation and root mean square error for LDAS is 0.73 and 0.05, whereas for CNTL it is 0.63 and 0.053 respectively, with a stronger heat low in LDAS. The differences in wind and moisture transport in LDAS favoured increased moisture transport from Arabian Sea through a convectively unstable region embedded within two low pressure centers over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. The improvement in rainfall is significantly correlated to the persistent generation of potential vorticity (PV) in LDAS. Further, PV tendency analysis confirmed that the increased generation of PV is due to the enhanced horizontal PV advection component rather than the diabatic heating terms due to modified flow fields. These results suggest that, two different synoptic systems merged by the strong interaction of moving PV columns resulted in the strengthening and further amplification of the system over the region in LDAS. This study highlights the importance of better representation of the land surface fields for improved prediction of localized anomalous weather event over India.     

Addressing Hurricane Intensity through Angular Momentum and Scale Energetics Approaches

This paper addresses two avenues for gaining insight into the hurricane intensity issue—the angular momentum approach and the scale interaction approach. In the angular momentum framework, the torques acting on a parcel's angular momentum are considered along an inflowing trajectory in order to construct the angular momentum budget. These torques are separable into three components: The pressure torque, the surface friction torque, and the cloud torque. All torques are found to diminish the angular momentum of an inflowing parcel, with the cloud torques having the most important role. In the scale interaction approach, energy exchanges among different scales within a hurricane are considered as a means of understanding hurricane intensity. It is found that the majority of kinetic energy contribution to the hurricane scales originates from potential-to-kinetic in-scale energy conversions. The contribution of mean-wave interactions in the kinetic energy varies with distance from the center and with the life stage of a storm. In the early stages, as the disorganized convection becomes organized on the hurricane scales, upscale energy transfers (i.e., from small to large scale) are found to take place in the outer radii of the storm. In a mature storm, the kinetic energy transfers are downscale, except for the inner radii.     

Systematic errors in the WRF model planetary boundary layer schemes for two contrasting monsoon seasons over the state of Odisha and its neighborhood region

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - This study evaluates the characteristics of systematic errors (up to day 4) in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes over the state of...     

Influence of convective parameterization on the systematic errors of Climate Forecast System (CFS) model over the Indian monsoon region from an extended range forecast perspective

This study investigates the influence of Simplified Arakawa Schubert (SAS) and Relax Arakawa Schubert (RAS) cumulus parameterization schemes on coupled Climate Forecast System version.1 (CFS-1, T62L64) retrospective forecasts over Indian monsoon region from an extended range forecast perspective. The forecast data sets comprise 45 days of model integrations based on 31 different initial conditions at pentad intervals starting from 1 May to 28 September for the years 2001 to 2007. It is found that mean climatological features of Indian summer monsoon months (JJAS) are reasonably simulated by both the versions (i.e. SAS and RAS) of the model; however strong cross equatorial flow and excess stratiform rainfall are noted in RAS compared to SAS. Both the versions of the model overestimated apparent heat source and moisture sink compared to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The prognosis evaluation of daily forecast climatology reveals robust systematic warming (moistening) in RAS and cooling (drying) biases in SAS particularly at the middle and upper troposphere of the model respectively. Using error energy/variance and root mean square error methodology it is also established that major contribution to the model total error is coming from the systematic component of the model error. It is also found that the forecast error growth of temperature in RAS is less than that of SAS; however, the scenario is reversed for moisture errors, although the difference of moisture errors between these two forecasts is not very large compared to that of temperature errors. Broadly, it is found that both the versions of the model are underestimating (overestimating) the rainfall area and amount over the Indian land region (and neighborhood oceanic region). The rainfall forecast results at pentad interval exhibited that, SAS and RAS have good prediction skills over the Indian monsoon core zone and Arabian Sea. There is less excess rainfall particularly over oceanic region in RAS up to 30 days of forecast duration compared to SAS. It is also evident that systematic errors in the coverage area of excess rainfall over the eastern foothills of the Himalayas remains unchanged irrespective of cumulus parameterization and initial conditions. It is revealed that due to stronger moisture transport in RAS there is a robust amplification of moist static energy facilitating intense convective instability within the model and boosting the moisture supply from surface to the upper levels through convergence. Concurrently, moisture detrainment from cloud to environment at multiple levels from the spectrum of clouds in the RAS, leads to a large accumulation of moisture in the middle and upper troposphere of the model. This abundant moisture leads to large scale condensational heating through a simple cloud microphysics scheme. This intense upper level heating contributes to the warm bias and considerably increases in stratiform rainfall in RAS compared to SAS. In a nutshell, concerted and sustained support of moisture supply from the bottom as well as from the top in RAS is the crucial factor for having a warm temperature bias in RAS.     

Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure to Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization

The advanced weather research and forecasting model is used to investigate the influence of planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes on intensity and structure of the storm Phailin (2013). Five simulations are conducted with five PBL schemes; Yonsei University (YSU), Mellor?Yamada?Nakanishi?Niino order2.5 (MYNN2), Assymetric Convective Model2 (ACM2), Medium Range Forecast (MRF), and Bougeault and Lacarrere (BouLac). The simulation duration includes the pre???intensification and rapid intensification phase of Phailin before landfall. Results indicate that during the pre???intensification phase, storm’s track and intensity are not much sensitivity to PBL but structural changes are noted. A significant sensitivity of track and intensity to PBL parameterizations are found during rapid intensification phase. BouLac and MRF produced two extremes with 39 hPa intense and 16 km compact storm for BouLac than MRF. Further analysis reveals an outward movement of air parcel just above the boundary layer which causes spin-down for YSU and MYNN2. BouLac is associated with stronger eddy diffusivity and moisture fluxes within the boundary layer and stronger cyclonic vorticity just above the boundary layer than other experiments. Stronger cyclonic vorticity above the boundary layer in BouLac favors intense updraft, facilitating more moisture transport from the boundary layer to upper layers aiding stronger secondary circulation and robustly intensifying the storm. A relatively deeper and drier inflow layer associated with weaker cyclonic vorticity just above the boundary layer reduces the moisture transport and weaken the secondary circulation for MRF than others.     

Impact of cloud microphysical processes on hurricane intensity, part 2: Sensitivity experiments

Summary Seven different microphysical sensitivity experiments were designed with an objective to evaluate their respective impacts in modulating hurricane intensity forecasts using mesoscale model MM5. Microphysical processes such as melting of graupel, snow and cloud ice hydrometeors, suppression of evaporation of falling rain, the intercept parameter and fall speed of snow and graupel hydrometeors are modified in the existing NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) microphysical parameterization scheme. We studied the impacts of cloud microphysical processes by means of track, intensity, precipitation, propagation speed, kinematic and thermodynamic vertical structural characteristics of hurricane inner core. These results suggest that the set of experiments where (a) melting of snow, graupel and cloud ice were suppressed (b) melting of snow and graupel were suppressed and (c) where the evaporation of rain water was suppressed all produced most intense storms. The major findings of this study are the interconversion processes such as melting and evaporation among hydrometeors and associated feedback mechanism are significantly modulate the intensity of the hurricane. In particular an experiment where the melting of graupel, snow and cloud ice hydrometeors was eliminated from the model parameterization scheme produced the most explosively intensified storm. In the experiment where rain water evaporation was eliminated from the model, it produced a stronger storm as compared to the control run but it was not as strong as the storms produced from absence of melting processes. The impact on intensity due to variations made in intercept parameters of the hydrometeors (i.e., snow and graupel) were not that evident compared to other experiments. The weakest storm was noted in the experiment where the fall speeds of the snow hydrometeors were increased two fold. This study has isolated some of the factors that contributed to a stronger hurricane and concludes with a motivation that the findings from this study will help in further improvement in the design of sophisticated explicit microphysical parameterization for the mesoscale non-hydrostatic model for realistic hurricane intensity forecasts.     

Geomorphic characterization of seafloor using Digital Elevation Model derivatives – a case study around Bombay High,Western Indian offshore

The present study demonstrates the use of gridded bathymetry in the form of a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) in a geographic information system (GIS) in geomorphic characterization of the seafloor in the Western Indian offshore around Bombay High region and presents the salient findings. The variography of bathymetry and its derivatives and their spatial correlation provides a technique to measure the presence of seafloor features and provides an insight into the processes involved. The current study utilizes tools available within a GIS for processing of a DEM and its derivatives involving spatial techniques like spatial correlation and variography studies for geomorphic characterization. A broad regional analysis for the study area comprising the near shore coast to the deep waters is discussed, followed up by a detailed study limiting to the coastal region around Bombay High.     

Comparison of Monsoonal change of water quality parameters between 1983 and 2008 in a tropical estuary in Northeastern India: role of phytoplankton and community metabolism

Ongoing climate change and anthropogenic activities are introducing stressors that affect the structure and function of coastal ecosystems. This paper focuses on the fluvial fluxes and estuarine transport of nutrients from a tropical river (Mahanadi River) in Northeastern India and compares select nutrient and water quality parameters between 1983 and 2008. This estuary acts as a perennial source of CO₂ with a net annual flux to the atmosphere of about 135 tons. The non‐conservative fluxes showed a net annual removal of 650 and 140 tons of phosphorus and nitrogen from the water column, respectively. Negative biogeochemical feedbacks that decreased the availability of N and P in 2008 relative to 1983 levels indicate major changes in biogeochemical responses towards fluvial fluxes of nutrient.     

Major and trace element geochemistry of olivine from an ENE-trending picrite dyke,genetically linked to the ca. 1.89–1.88 Ga Hampi swarm,western Dharwar craton: Implications for plume induced melting of a mixed peridotite-pyroxenite source

The presence of recycled crust in the lithospheric mantle of the Dharwar craton has been investigated using trace element geochemistry of olivine grains from an ENE-trending Paleoproterozoic picrite dyke (associated with the ca. 1.89–1.88 Ga Hampi dyke swarm) emplaced in the western Dharwar craton. Olivine grains are purely magmatic, formed as early phenocrysts in a fractionated basaltic melt. They exhibit enrichment in NiO contents (0.32–0.43 wt%) and depletion in Ca (1366–2105 ppm), Mn (1578–2663 ppm) and 100 1 Mn/Fe (1.28–1.48). Further, the compiled whole-rock geochemical data of the picrite dyke and associated dyke swarm illustrates relatively low CaO/MgO (0.55–1.78), intermediate FeO/MnO (47–54), negative to positive PX# (?0.34 to +1.86), and high values of FC3MS (0.24–0.90) and FCKANTMS (0.19–1.11). These chemical markers are not consistent with the derivation of the primary melt from a pure peridotite or a pyroxenite source; therefore, contribution from a mixed type of source having both peridotite and pyroxenite end members (pyroxene rich and olivine poor lithology) is suggested. The amount of pyroxenite and recycled crust varies from 46% to 86% and 14% to 44%, respectively. The Al-in-olivine based thermometer estimates the maximum crystallization temperature as 1407 °C, which is 137 °C higher than the average temperature of MORB and accordant with several well-established plume-induced large igneous provinces (LIPs) worldwide. Therefore, it is suggested that the studied picrite dyke is derived from a primary melt generated by plume-induced melting of a peridotite-pyroxenite mixed source. The ca. 1.89–1.88 Ga Hampi dyke swarm, being genetically linked with the studied dyke, could also be derived from this same source. Further, the recycled crust in the subcontinental lithospheric mantle of the western Dharwar craton may have generated the pyroxene rich mafic source during the Neoarchean convergence between eastern and western Dharwar craton.     

Sensitivity of tropical cyclone characteristics to the radial distribution of sea surface temperature

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is crucial for the development and maintenance of a tropical cyclone (TC) particularly below the storm core region. However, storm data below the core region is the most difficult to obtain, hence it is not clear yet that how sensitive the radial distribution of the SST impact the storm characteristic features such as its inner-core structures, translational speed, track, rainfall and intensity particularly over the Bay of Bengal. To explore the effects of radial SST distribution on the TC characteristics, a series of numerical experiments were carried out by modifying the SST at different radial extents using two-way interactive, triply-nested, nonhydrostatic Advanced Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) model. It is found that not only the SST under the eyewall (core region) contribute significantly to modulate storm track, translational speed and intensity, but also those outside the eyewall region (i.e., 2–2.5 times the radius of maximum wind (RMW)) play a vital role in defining the storm’s characteristics and structure. Out of all the simulated experiments, storm where the positive radial change of SST inducted within the 75 km of the storm core (i.e., P75) produced the strongest storm. In addition, N300 (negative radial changes at 300 km) produced the weakest storm. Further, it is found that SST, stronger within 2–2.5 times of the RMW for P75 experiment, plays a dominant role in maintaining 10 m wind speed (WS ₁₀), surface entropy flux (SEF) and upward vertical velocity (w) within the eyewall with warmer air temperature (T) and equivalent potential temperature (??_e) within the storm’s eye compared to other experiments.