The integrated optical spectrum of the Crab nebula and evidence for its fading synchrotron continuum

A flux-calibrated optical spectrum integrated over the entire Crab nebula was obtained by making drift scans with a long-slit spectrograph. Compared to observations obtained over the past 40 years, these new data confirm an earlier controversial result that the [O iii ]  λλ4959, 5007  equivalent width is increasing with time, although the rate of ∼0.9 per cent yr⁻¹ is somewhat slower than that measured previously. Additionally, the Hβ equivalent width is increasing at a comparable rate, but the measured fluxes of both Hβ and [O  iii ] have changed less than their respective equivalent widths. The different rates of change in the measured fluxes and equivalent widths of these lines suggest that the optical synchrotron continuum from the Crab nebula is indeed fading rapidly. The apparent decline is consistent with a rate around  −0.5 (±0.2)  per cent yr⁻¹ at wavelengths near 5000  Å inferred independently from measurements of the optical continuum flux during the same time period.     

Climate Suitability: For Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

As climate is one factor determining the potential range of malaria, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission is based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using sixteen projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas currently limited by precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Climate Suitability for Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries.     

Method‐dependent influence of environmental variables on reef fish assemblages when comparing trap and video surveys

Despite substantial survey effort and a large body of literature on abiotic and biotic factors in temperate reef ecosystems, knowledge of the complex and interactive effects of environmental variables on those communities is limited. Various survey methods have been developed to study environmental predictors of biodiversity, but there remains a gap in our understanding of how survey results are influenced by environmental factors. Here, we surveyed the fish assemblage associated with southeastern U.S. temperate marine reefs with simultaneous, paired trap, and camera gears throughout a ~50,000 km² area during 2011–2013 and assessed the influence of environmental variables on the trap‐ and video‐surveyed assemblages. Predictor variables in the multivariate general linear models included depth, temperature, month, year, location, substrate relief, percent sessile biota, biota type, and turbidity. Depth and latitude had the greatest influence on the fish assemblage for both gears. The influence of habitat variables differed between methods and percent biota explained more variation in the fish assemblage when assessed by traps, while substrate relief and biota type explained more variation in the fish assemblage when assessed by video. In general, habitat complexity was positively related to the abundance of fishes in the video survey, but there was a negative relationship in the trap survey. Differences between gears were species‐specific and the influences of environmental variables were similar for some species such as Haemulon plumierii and Hyporthodus niveatus. The methods presented here can be used to assess method‐dependent differences in fish assemblages, which is a necessary precursor to assess the effect of environmental variables on the accuracy of surveys.     

Improved algorithms for generalized finite element simulations of three-dimensional hydraulic fracture propagation

This paper reports improvements to algorithms for the simulation of 3-D hydraulic fracturing with the Generalized Finite Element Method (GFEM). Three optimizations are presented and analyzed. First, an improved initial guess based on solving a 3-D elastic problem with the pressure from the previous step is shown to decrease the number of Newton iterations and increase robustness. Second, an improved methodology to find the time step that leads to fracture propagation is proposed and shown to decrease significantly the number of iterations. Third, reduced computational cost is observed by properly recycling the linear part of the coupled stiffness matrix. Two representative examples are used to analyze these improvements. Additionally, a methodology to include the leak-off term is presented and verified against asymptotic analytical solutions. Conservation of mass is shown to be well satisfied in all examples.     

The Southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front: physical and biological coupling at South Georgia

The coupling of physics and biology was examined along a 160 km long transect running out from the north coast of South Georgia Island and crossing the Southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front (SACCF) during late December 2000. Surface and near surface potential TS properties indicated the presence of three water types: a near-shore group of stations characterised by water which became progressively warmer and fresher closer to South Georgia, an offshore grouping in which sea surface temperatures and those at the winter water level were relatively warm (1.8°C and 0.5°C, respectively), and a third in which surface and winter water temperatures were cooler and reflected the presence of the SACCF. The transect bisected the SACCF twice, revealing that it was flowing in opposite directions, north-westward closest to South Georgia and south-eastwards at its furthest point from the island. The innermost limb was a narrow intense feature located just off the shelf break in 2000–3500 m of water and in which rapid surface baroclinic velocities (up to 35 cm s⁻¹) were encountered. Offshore in the outermost limb, shown subsequently to be a mesoscale eddy that had meandered south from the retroflected limb of the SACCF, flow was broader and slower with peak velocities around 20 cm s⁻¹. Chlorophyll a biomass was generally low (<1 mg m⁻³) over much of the transect but increased dramatically in the region of the innermost limb of the SACCF, where a deepening of the surface mixed layer was coincident with a subsurface chlorophyll maximum (7.4 mg m⁻³) and elevated concentrations down to 100 m. The bloom was coincident with depleted nutrient concentrations, particularly silicate, nitrate and phosphate, and although ammonium concentrations were locally depleted the bloom lay within an elevated band (up to 1.5 mmol m⁻³) associated with the frontal jet. Increased zooplankton abundance, higher copepod body carbon mass and egg production rates all showed a strong spatial integrity with the front. The population structure of the copepods Calanoides acutus and Rhincalanus gigas at stations within the front suggested that rather than simply resulting from entrainment and concentration within the jet, increased copepod abundance was the result of development in situ. Estimates of bloom duration, based on silicate and carbon budget calculations, set the likely duration between 82 and 122 d, a figure supported by the development schedule of the two copepod species. Given this timescale, model outputs from FRAM and OCCAM indicated that particles that occurred on the north side of South Georgia in December would have been in the central-southern Scotia Sea 2–3 months earlier, probably in sea ice affected regions.     

CCD photometry inVRI bands of the galactic cluster NGC 2818

bdAbstract The open cluster NGC 2818 containing a planetary nebula has been observed inVRI bands using the CCD system at prime focus of the 2.3-metre Vainu Bappu Telescope. The study extending to starsV ∼ 21 magnitude establishes the distance modulus as(m-M) ₀ = 12.9 ±0.1 for the cluster. Based on the fitting of theoretical isochrones computed for solar metallicity, an age of 5(±1) × 10₈ years has been assigned to the cluster. Association of the planetary nebula with the cluster indicates that the progenitor mass of the planetary nebula on the main sequence is ≥2.5M_⊙ Based on observations obtained with the Vainu Bappu Telescope.