The glacial inception as recorded in the NorthGRIP Greenland ice core: timing, structure and associated abrupt temperature changes

The mechanisms involved in the glacial inception are still poorly constrained due to a lack of high resolution and cross-dated climate records at various locations. Using air isotopic measurements in the recently drilled NorthGRIP ice core, we show that no evidence exists for stratigraphic disturbance of the climate record of the last glacial inception (∼123–100 kyears BP) encompassing Dansgaard–Oeschger events (DO) 25, 24 and 23, even if we lack sufficient resolution to completely rule out disturbance over DO 25. We quantify the rapid surface temperature variability over DO 23 and 24 with associated warmings of 10±2.5 and 16±2.5°C, amplitudes which mimic those observed in full glacial conditions. We use records of δ¹⁸O of O₂ to propose a common timescale for the NorthGRIP and the Antarctic Vostok ice cores, with a maximum uncertainty of 2,500 years, and to examine the interhemispheric sequence of events over this period. After a synchronous North–South temperature decrease, the onset of rapid events is triggered in the North through DO 25. As for later events, DO 24 and 23 have a clear Antarctic counterpart which does not seem to be the case for the very first abrupt warming (DO 25). This information, when added to intermediate levels of CO₂ and to the absence of clear ice rafting associated with DO 25, highlights the uniqueness of this first event, while DO 24 and 23 appear similar to typical full glacial DO events.     

Revisiting the latent heat nudging scheme for the rainfall assimilation of a simulated convective storm

Summary Next-generation, operational, high-resolution numerical weather prediction models require economical assimilation schemes for radar data. In the present study we evaluate and characterise the latent heat nudging (LHN) rainfall assimilation scheme within a meso-γ scale NWP model in the framework of identical twin simulations of an idealised supercell storm. Consideration is given to the model’s dynamical response to the forcing as well as to the sensitivity of the LHN scheme to uncertainty in the observations and the environment. The results indicate that the LHN scheme is well able to capture the dynamical structure and the right rainfall amount of the storm in a perfect environment. This holds true even in degraded environments but a number of important issues arise. In particular, changes in the low-level humidity field are found to affect mainly the precipitation amplitude during the assimilation with a fast adaptation of the storm to the system dynamics determined by the environment during the free forecast. A constant bias in the environmental wind field, on the other hand, has the potential to render a successful assimilation with the LHN scheme difficult, as the velocity of the forcing is not consistent with the system propagation speed determined by the wind. If the rainfall forcing moves too fast, the system propagation is supported and the assimilated storm and forecasts initialised therefrom develop properly. A too slow forcing, on the other hand, can decelerate the system and eventually disturb the system dynamics by decoupling the low-level moisture inflow from the main updrafts during the assimilation. This distortion is sustained in the free forecast. It has further been found that a sufficient temporal resolution of the rainfall input is crucial for the successful assimilation of a fast moving, coherent convective storm and that the LHN scheme, when applied to a convective storm, appears to necessitate a careful tuning.     

Machine Learning Feature Selection Methods for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping

This paper explores the use of adaptive support vector machines, random forests and AdaBoost for landslide susceptibility mapping in three separated regions of Canton Vaud, Switzerland, based on a set of geological, hydrological and morphological features. The feature selection properties of the three algorithms are studied to analyze the relevance of features in controlling the spatial distribution of landslides. The elimination of irrelevant features gives simpler, lower dimensional models while keeping the classification performance high. An object-based sampling procedure is considered to reduce the spatial autocorrelation of data and to estimate more reliably generalization skills when applying the model to predict the occurrence of new unknown landslides. The accuracy of the models, the relevance of features and the quality of landslide susceptibility maps were found to be high in the regions characterized by shallow landslides and low in the ones with deep-seated landslides. Despite providing similar skill, random forests and AdaBoost were found to be more efficient in performing feature selection than adaptive support vector machines. The results of this study reveal the strengths of the classification algorithms, but evidence: (1) the need for relying on more than one method for the identification of relevant variables; (2) the weakness of the adaptive scaling algorithm when used with landslide data; and (3) the lack of additional features which characterize the spatial distribution of deep-seated landslides.     

Observations of Atmospheric Methane and Carbon Dioxide Mixing Ratios: Tall-Tower or Mountain-Top Stations?

Mountain-top observations of greenhouse gas mixing ratios may be an alternative to tall-tower measurements for regional scale source and sink estimation. To investigate the equivalence or limitations of a mountain-top site as compared to a tall-tower site, we used the unique opportunity of comparing in situ measurements of methane (\(\hbox {CH}_{4}\)) and carbon dioxide (\(\hbox {CO}_{2}\)) mixing ratios at a mountain top (986 m above sea level, a.s.l.) with measurements from a nearby (distance 28.4 km) tall tower, sampled at almost the same elevation (1009 m a.s.l.). Special attention was given to, (i) how local wind statistics and greenhouse gas sources and sinks at the mountain top influence the observations, and (ii) whether mountain-top observations can be used as for those from a tall tower for constraining regional greenhouse gas emissions. Wind statistics at the mountain-top site are clearly more influenced by local flow systems than those at the tall-tower site. Differences in temporal patterns of the greenhouse gas mixing ratios observed at the two sites are mostly related to the influence of local sources and sinks at the mountain-top site. Major influences of local sources can be removed by applying a statistical filter (\(5{\mathrm{th}}\) percentile) or a filter that removes periods with unfavourable flow conditions. In the best case, the bias in mixing ratios between the mountain-top and the tall-tower sites after the application of the wind filter was \({-}0.0005\pm 0.0010\) ppm for methane (September, 0000–0400 UTC) and \(0.11\pm 0.18\) ppm for \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) (February, 1200–1600 UTC). Temporal fluctuations of atmospheric \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) and \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) mixing ratios at both stations also showed good agreement (apart from \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) during summertime) as determined by moving bi-weekly Pearson correlation coefficients (up to 0.96 for \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) and 0.97 for \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\)). When only comparing mixing ratios minimally influenced by local sources (low bias and high correlation coefficients), our measurements indicate that mountain-top observations are comparable to tall-tower observations.     

Climate on the southern Black Sea coast during the Holocene: implications from the Sofular Cave record

We present the updated Holocene section of the Sofular Cave record from the southern Black Sea coast (northern Turkey); an area with considerably different present-day climate compared to that of the neighboring Eastern Mediterranean region. Stalagmite δ¹³C, growth rates and initial (²³⁴U/²³⁸U) ratios provide information about hydrological changes above the cave; and prove to be more useful than δ¹⁸O for deciphering Holocene climatic variations. Between ～9.6 and 5.4 ka BP (despite a pause from ～8.4 to 7.8 ka BP), the Sofular record indicates a remarkable increase in rainfall amount and intensity, in line with other paleoclimate studies in the Eastern Mediterranean. During that period, enhanced summertime insolation either produced much stronger storms in the following fall and winter through high sea surface temperatures, or it invoked a regional summer monsoon circulation and rainfall. We suggest that one or both of these climatic mechanisms led to a coupling of the Black Sea and the Mediterranean rainfall regimes at that time, which can explain the observed proxy signals. However, there are discrepancies among the Eastern Mediterranean records in terms of the timing of this wet period; implying that changes were probably not always occurring through the same mechanism. Nevertheless, the Sofular Cave record does provide hints and bring about new questions about the connection between regional and large scale climates, highlighting the need for a more extensive network of high quality paleoclimate records to better understand Holocene climate.     

Stable carbon isotope composition and concentrations of CO2 and CH4 in the deep catotelm of a peat bog

Vertical profiles of concentration and C-isotopic composition of dissolved methane and carbon dioxide were observed over 26 months in the catotelm of a deep (6.5 m) peat bog in Switzerland. The dissolved concentrations of these gases increase with depth while CO₂ predominates over CH₄ (CO₂ ca. 5 times CH₄). This pattern can be reproduced by a reaction-advection-ebullition model, where CO₂ and CH₄ are formed in a ratio of 1:1. The less soluble methane is preferentially lost via outgassing (bubbles). The isotopic fractionation between CO₂ and CH₄ also increases with depth, with α_C values ranging from 1.045 to 1.075. The isotopic composition of the gases traces the passage of respiration-derived CO₂ (from the near surface) through a shallow zone with methanogenesis of low isotopic fractionation (splitting of fermentation-derived acetate). This solution then moves through the catotelm, where methanogenesis occurs by CO₂ reduction (large isotopic fractionation). In the upper part of the catotelm the C-13-depleted respiration-derived CO₂ pool buffers the isotopic composition of CO₂; the δ¹³C of CO₂ increases only slowly. At the same time strongly depleted CH₄ is formed as CO₂ reduction consumes the depleted CO₂. In the lower part of the catotelm, the respiration-derived CO₂ and shallow CH₄ become less important and CO₂ reduction is the dominant source of CO₂ and CH₄. Now, the δ¹³C values of both gases increase until equilibrium is reached with respect to the isotopic composition of the substrate. Thus, the δ¹³C values of methane reach a minimum at intermediate depth, and the deep methane has δ¹³C values comparable to shallow methane. A simple mixing model for the isotopic evolution is suggested. Only minor changes of the observed patterns of methanogenesis (in terms of concentration and isotopic composition) occur over the seasons. The most pronounced of these is a slightly higher rate of acetate splitting in spring.     

Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Models in the Grey Zone of Turbulence: Adaptations to FLEXPART-COSMO for Simulations at 1 km Grid Resolution

Boundary-Layer Meteorology - Lagrangian particle dispersion models (LPDMs) are frequently used for regional-scale inversions of greenhouse gas emissions. However, the turbulence parameterizations...     

Temporal patterns in lacustrine stable isotopes as evidence for climate change during the late glacial in the Southern European Alps

We investigated oxygen and carbon isotopes of bulk carbonate and of benthic freshwater ostracods (Candona candida) in a sediment core of Lago Piccolo di Avigliana that was previously analyzed for pollen and loss-on-ignition, in order to reconstruct environmental changes during the late glacial and early Holocene. The depth–age relationship of the sediment core was established using 14 AMS ¹⁴C dates and the Laacher See Tephra. While stable isotopes of bulk carbonates may have been affected by detrital input and, therefore, only indirectly reflect climatic changes, isotopes measured on ostracod shells provide unambiguous evidence for major environmental changes. Oxygen isotope ratios of ostracod shells (δ¹⁸O_C) increased by ～6‰ at the onset of the Bølling (～14,650 cal BP) and were ～2‰ lower during the Younger Dryas (～12,850 to 11,650 cal BP), indicating a temporal pattern of climate changes similar to the North Atlantic region. However, in contrast to records in that region, δ¹⁸O_C gradually decreased during the early Holocene, suggesting that compared to the Younger Dryas more humid conditions occurred and that the lake received gradually increasing input of ¹⁸O-depleted groundwater or river water.