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1.
Flow dynamics,sedimentation and erosion of glacial lake outburst floods along the Middle Pleistocene Scandinavian Ice Sheet (northern central Europe)
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Jutta Winsemann Petteri Alho Leena Laamanen Nils Goseberg Jörg Lang Josef Klostermann 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2016,45(2):260-283
During the Middle Pleistocene late Saalian glaciation of northern central Europe numerous pro‐glacial lakes formed along the southwestern margin of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet. Little is known about the drainage history of these lakes, the pathways of glacial lake outburst floods and their impacts on erosion, sedimentation and landscape evolution. This study investigated the impact of the late Saalian Weser and Münsterland Lake (Germany) outburst floods. In particular, we reconstructed the routing and flow dynamics of the lake outburst flood and analysed the flood related sediments. We employed one‐dimensional hydraulic modelling to calculate glacial lake outburst flood hydrographs. We modelled the flow pathway and local flow conditions along the pathway based on the boundary conditions of two different hydrographs and two different ice‐margin positions. The modelling results were compared with geomorphological and sedimentological field data in order to estimate the magnitude and impact of the flood on erosion and sedimentation. Two major lake drainage events are reconstructed for the study area, during which approximately 90–50 km3 of water was released. Modelling results indicate that the lake outburst floods created a high‐energy flood wave with a height of 35–50 m in confined valley areas that rapidly spread out into the Lower Rhine Embayment eventually flowing into the North Sea basin. The sedimentary record of the outburst floods comprises poorly sorted coarse‐grained gravel bars, long‐wavelength bedforms and sandy bedforms deposited by supercritical and subcritical flows. Some parts of the sandy flood deposits are rich in reworked mammoth bones or mammoth and horse teeth, pointing to reworking of older fluvial sediments, hydraulic concentration and subsequent re‐sedimentation of vertebrate remains. These deposits are preserved in sheltered areas or at high elevations, well above the influence of postglacial fluvial erosion. The flood‐related erosional features include up to 80‐m‐deep scour pools, alluvial channels and streamlined hills. 相似文献
2.
Mauri J. Valtonen Kimmo A. Innanen Leena Tähtinen 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1984,107(2):209-222
Numerical simulations have been performed in order to study the gravitational interaction between the outlying population of the Galaxy and the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). The following effects have been noted: (1) halo objects are partially removed from the orbital distance of the LMC such that a local minimum is created in the radial density profile; (2) a large number of halo objects go into escape orbits. This possibility makes the determination of the mass of the Galaxy by virial theorem arguments unreliable; (3) the orbit of the LMC decays faster than what one would expect on the basis of the classical dynamical friction calculation. The excess friction derives from three-body effects, which are not accounted for in the classical dynamical friction. Finally, the fates of globular clusters and dwarf galaxies near the Galaxy and the LMC are discussed. 相似文献
3.
Climate projections from multi-model ensembles are commonly represented by the multi-model mean (MMM) climate change. As an alternative, various subjectively formulated schemes for performance-based weighting of models have been proposed. Here, a more objective framework for model weighting is developed. A key ingredient of this scheme is a calibration step quantifying the relationship between intermodel similarity in observable climate and intermodel similarity in simulated climate change. Models that simulate the observable climate better are only given higher weight where and when such an intermodel relationship is found, and the difference in weight between better and worse performing models increases with the strength of this relationship. The method is applied to projections of temperature change from the Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. First, cross-validation is used to estimate the potential of the method to improve the accuracy of climate change estimates and to search for suitable predictor variables. The decrease in cross-validation error allowed by the weighting is relatively modest but not negligible, and it could potentially be increased if better predictor variables were found. Second, observations are used to weight the models, to study the differences between the weighted mean and MMM estimates of twenty-first century temperature change and the sensitivity of these differences to the predictor variables and observational data sets used. 相似文献
4.
J. Ignacio López-Moreno Leena Leppänen Bartłomiej Luks Ladislav Holko Ghislain Picard Alba Sanmiguel-Vallelado Esteban Alonso-González David C. Finger Ali N. Arslan Katalin Gillemot Aynur Sensoy Arda Sorman M. Cansaran Ertaş Steven R. Fassnacht Charles Fierz Christoph Marty 《水文研究》2020,34(14):3120-3133
Manually collected snow data are often considered as ground truth for many applications such as climatological or hydrological studies. However, there are many sources of uncertainty that are not quantified in detail. For the determination of water equivalent of snow cover (SWE), different snow core samplers and scales are used, but they are all based on the same measurement principle. We conducted two field campaigns with 9 samplers commonly used in observational measurements and research in Europe and northern America to better quantify uncertainties when measuring depth, density and SWE with core samplers. During the first campaign, as a first approach to distinguish snow variability measured at the plot and at the point scale, repeated measurements were taken along two 20 m long snow pits. The results revealed a much higher variability of SWE at the plot scale (resulting from both natural variability and instrumental bias) compared to repeated measurements at the same spot (resulting mostly from error induced by observers or very small scale variability of snow depth). The exceptionally homogeneous snowpack found in the second campaign permitted to almost neglect the natural variability of the snowpack properties and focus on the separation between instrumental bias and error induced by observers. Reported uncertainties refer to a shallow, homogeneous tundra-taiga snowpack less than 1 m deep (loose, mostly recrystallised snow and no wind impact). Under such measurement conditions, the uncertainty in bulk snow density estimation is about 5% for an individual instrument and is close to 10% among different instruments. Results confirmed that instrumental bias exceeded both the natural variability and the error induced by observers, even in the case when observers were not familiar with a given snow core sampler. 相似文献
5.
Leena Järvi Ari-Juhani Punkka David M. Schultz Tuukka Petäjä Harri Hohti Janne Rinne Toivo Pohja Markku Kulmala Pertti Hari Timo Vesala 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2007,125(2):343-359
On the afternoon of 3 July 2004 in Hyytiälä (Juupajoki, Finland), convective cells produced a strong downburst causing forest damage. The SMEAR II field station, situated near the damage site, enabled a unique micrometeorological analysis of a microburst with differences above and inside the canopy. At the time of the event, a squall line associated with a cold front was crossing Hyytiälä with a reflectivity maximum in the middle of the squall line. A bow echo, rear-inflow notch, and probable mesovortex were observed in radar data. The bow echo moved west-north-west, and its apex travelled just north of Hyytiälä. The turbulence data were analysed at two locations above the forest canopy and at one location at sub-canopy. At 1412 EET (Eastern European Time, UTC+2), the horizontal and vertical wind speed increased and the wind veered, reflecting the arrival of a gust front. At the same time, the carbon dioxide concentration increased due to turbulent mixing, the temperature decreased due to cold air flow from aloft and aerosol particle concentration decreased due to rain scavenging. An increase in the number concentration of ultra-fine particles (< 10 nm) was detected, supporting the new particle formation either from cloud outflow or due to rain. Five minutes after the gust front (1417 EET), strong horizontal and downward vertical wind speed gusts occurred with maxima of 22 and 15 m s?1, respectively, reflecting the microburst. The turbulence spectra before, during and after the event were consistent with traditional turbulence spectral theory. 相似文献
6.
Annika Nordbo Leena Järvi Sami Haapanala Joonas Moilanen Timo Vesala 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2013,146(3):469-496
Most atmospheric boundary-layer theories are developed over vegetative surfaces and their applicability at urban sites is questionable. Here, we study the intra-city variation of turbulence characteristics and the applicability of boundary-layer theory using building-morphology data across Helsinki, and eddy-covariance data from three sites: two in central Helsinki (400 m apart) and one 4 km away from the city centre. The multi-site measurements enable the analysis of the horizontal scales at which quantities that characterize turbulent transport vary: (i) Roughness characteristics vary at a 10-m scale, and morphometric estimation of surface-roughness characteristics is shown to perform better than the often used rule-of-thumb estimates (average departures from the logarithmic wind profile are 14 and 44 %, respectively). (ii) The drag coefficient varies at a 100-m scale, and we provide an updated parametrization of the drag coefficient as a function of z/z H (the ratio of the measurement height to the mean building height). (iii) The transport efficiency of heat, water vapour and CO2 is shown to be weaker the more heterogeneous the site is, in terms of sources and sinks, and strong scalar dissimilarity is observed at all sites. (iv) Atmospheric stability varies markedly even within 4 km across the city: the median difference in nocturnal sensible heat fluxes between the three sites was over 50W m?2. Furthermore, (v) normalized power spectra and cospectra do not vary between sites, and they follow roughly the canonical theory as developed over vegetated terrain. 相似文献
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8.
Tapio Tuukkanen Leena Stenberg Hannu Marttila Leena Finér Sirpa Piirainen Harri Koivusalo Bjørn Kløve 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2016,41(13):1841-1853
Ditch cleaning in drained peatland forests increases sediment loads and degrades water quality in headwater streams and lakes. A better understanding of the processes controlling ditch erosion and sediment transport in such systems is a prerequisite for proper peatland management. In order to relate hydrological observations to key erosion processes in headwater peatlands drained for forestry, a two‐year study was conducted in a nested sub‐catchment system (treated with ditch cleaning) and at two reference sites. The treated catchment was instrumented for continuous discharge and turbidity monitoring, erosion pin measurements of changes in ditch bed and banks and time‐integrated sampling of suspended sediment (SS) composition. The results showed that ditch cleaning clearly increased transient suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs) and suspended sediment yields (SSYs), and resulted in temporary storage of loosely deposited organic sediment in the ditch network. After exhaustion of this sediment storage, subaerial processes and erosion from ditch banks became dominant in producing sediment for transport. Recorded SSCs were higher on the rising limbs of event hydrographs throughout the study period, indicating that SS transport was limited by availability of erosion‐prone sediment. A strong positive correlation (R2 = 0.84, p < 0.001) between rainfall intensity (above a threshold of 1 mm h?1) and average SSC obtained on the rising limb of hydrographs for the sub‐catchment showed that soil detachment from ditch banks by raindrop impact can directly increase SSC in runoff. At the main catchment outlet, variation in SSC was best explained (R2 = 0.67, p < 0.05) by the linear combination of initial discharge (?), peak discharge (+) and the lag time from initial to peak discharge (?). Based on these factors, ditch cleaning slightly increased peak discharges and decreased transit times in the study catchment. The implications of the results for water pollution management in peatland forests are discussed. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
9.
Stefan Fronzek Timothy R. Carter Jouni Räisänen Leena Ruokolainen Miska Luoto 《Climatic change》2010,99(3-4):515-534
A comparison of two approaches for determining probabilistic climate change impacts is presented. In the first approach, ensemble climate projections are applied directly as inputs to an impact model and the risk of impact is computed from the resulting ensemble of outcomes. As this can involve large numbers of projections, the approach may prove to be impractical when applied to complex impact models with demanding input requirements. The second approach is to construct an impact response surface based on a sensitivity analysis of the impact model with respect to changes in key climatic variables, and then to superimpose probabilistic projections of future climate onto the response surface to assess the risk of impact. To illustrate this comparison, an impact model describing the spatial distribution of palsas in Fennoscandia was applied to estimate the risk of palsa disappearance. Palsas are northern mire complexes with permanently frozen peat hummocks, located at the outer limit of the permafrost zone and susceptible to rapid decline due to regional warming. Probabilities of climate changes were derived from an ensemble of coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) projections using a re-sampling method. Results indicated that the response surface approach, though introducing additional uncertainty, gave risk estimates of area decline for palsa suitability that were comparable to those obtained using multiple simulations with the original palsa model. It was estimated as very likely (>90% probability) that a decline of area suitable for palsas to less than half of the baseline distribution will occur by the 2030s and likely (>66%) that all suitable areas will disappear by the end of the twenty-first century under scenarios of medium (A1B) and moderately high (A2) emissions. For a low emissions (B1) scenario, it was more likely than not (>50%) that conditions over a small fraction of the current palsa distribution would remain suitable until the end of the twenty-first century. 相似文献
10.
Forest carbon sinks have been included in the Kyoto Protocol as one of the mechanisms for mitigating climate change. Consequently, credited sinks decrease the need to reduce emissions. We analyse in detail both the economywide and the sectoral effects of inclusion of carbon sinks as agreed upon in Bonn and Marrakesh for the first commitment period of 2008–2012. The focus of our analysis is the special treatment for Canada and Japan that allows them larger sinks. The analysis is performed with the multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model GTAP-E.New Zealand benefits most from the inclusion of sinks as it gains large carbon sinks from afforestation. Also in Sweden, Canada and Japan the costs of achieving the emission target are considerably reduced. Of these countries, only Canada has high costs without sinks. Thus credited sinks partly reduce the difference in economic burden of achieving the Kyoto target among countries. Even though larger sinks clearly benefit Canada and Japan, their effect on other countries, either on the economywide or on the sectoral level, remains marginal. Allowing larger sinks is, indeed, of relatively minor importance for the world economy and emission reduction, compared to the US withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol. 相似文献