Mapping of aggregated floodplain plant communities using image fusion of CASI and LiDAR data

Combined optical and laser altimeter data offer the potential to map and monitor plant communities based on their spectral and structural characteristics. A problem unresolved is, however, that narrowly defined plant communities, i.e. plant communities at a low hierarchical level of classification in the Braun-Blanquet system, often cannot be linked directly to remote sensing data for vegetation mapping. We studied whether and how a floristic dataset can be aggregated into a few major discrete, mappable classes without substantial loss of ecological meaning. Multi-source airborne data (CASI and LiDAR) and floristic field data were collected for a floodplain along the river Waal in the Netherlands. Mapping results based on floristic similarity alone did not achieve highest levels of accuracy. Ordination of floristic data showed that terrain elevation and soil moisture were the main underlying environmental drivers shaping the floodplain vegetation, but grouping of plant communities based on their position in the ordination space is not always obvious. Combined ordination-based grouping with floristic similarity clustering led to syntaxonomically relevant aggregated plant assemblages and yielded highest mapping accuracies.     

Predictability of large interannual Arctic sea-ice anomalies

In projections of twenty-first century climate, Arctic sea ice declines and at the same time exhibits strong interannual anomalies. Here, we investigate the potential to predict these strong sea-ice anomalies under a perfect-model assumption, using the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model in the same setup as in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We study two cases of strong negative sea-ice anomalies: a 5-year-long anomaly for present-day conditions, and a 10-year-long anomaly for conditions projected for the middle of the twenty-first century. We treat these anomalies in the CMIP5 projections as the truth, and use exactly the same model configuration for predictions of this synthetic truth. We start ensemble predictions at different times during the anomalies, considering lagged-perfect and sea-ice-assimilated initial conditions. We find that the onset and amplitude of the interannual anomalies are not predictable. However, the further deepening of the anomaly can be predicted for typically 1 year lead time if predictions start after the onset but before the maximal amplitude of the anomaly. The magnitude of an extremely low summer sea-ice minimum is hard to predict: the skill of the prediction ensemble is not better than a damped-persistence forecast for lead times of more than a few months, and is not better than a climatology forecast for lead times of two or more years. Predictions of the present-day anomaly are more skillful than predictions of the mid-century anomaly. Predictions using sea-ice-assimilated initial conditions are competitive with those using lagged-perfect initial conditions for lead times of a year or less, but yield degraded skill for longer lead times. The results presented here suggest that there is limited prospect of predicting the large interannual sea-ice anomalies expected to occur throughout the twenty-first century.     

The transition from the present-day climate to a modern Snowball Earth

We use the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM to investigate the transition from the present-day climate to a modern Snowball Earth, defined as the Earth in modern geography with complete sea-ice cover. Starting from the present-day climate and applying an abrupt decrease of total solar irradiance (TSI) we find that the critical TSI marking the Snowball Earth bifurcation point is between 91 and 94% of the present-day TSI. The Snowball Earth bifurcation point as well as the transition times are well reproduced by a zero-dimensional energy balance model of the mean ocean potential temperature. During the transition, the asymmetric distribution of continents between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere causes heat transports toward the more water-covered Southern Hemisphere. This is accompanied by an intensification of the southern Hadley cell and the wind-driven subtropical ocean cells by a factor of 4. If we set back TSI to 100% shortly before the transition to a modern Snowball Earth is completed, a narrow band of open equatorial water is sufficient for rapid melting. This implies that for 100% TSI the point of unstoppable glaciation separating partial from complete sea-ice cover is much closer to complete sea-ice cover than in classical energy balance models. Stable states can have no greater than 56.6% sea-ice cover implying that ECHAM5/MPI-OM does not exhibit stable states with near-complete sea-ice cover but open equatorial waters.     

The scaling of the meridional overturning with the meridional temperature gradient in idealised general circulation models

The scaling law linking the strength of the meridional overturning to the surface meridional temperature gradient is re-examined in two ocean general circulation models at coarse resolution in an idealised single-hemisphere setting. Two sets of results are presented, where the surface meridional temperature gradient is decreased either by increasing the northernmost temperature and keeping the equator temperature fixed, or by decreasing the equator temperature and keeping the northernmost temperature fixed. The maximum of the meridional overturning first increases and then decreases when the northernmost temperature is gradually increased, whereas the maximum overturning decreases monotonically when the equator temperature is decreased. No scaling law can be derived when the northernmost temperature is increased, whereas a 2/3 power law is found when the temperature is decreased at the equator. The behaviour of the overturning is strongly influenced by the vigour and, particularly, the spatial patterns of convection, which vary substantially between the two sets and which control the horizontal and vertical density gradients at high latitudes.     

Assessing the effects of Irgarol 1051 on marine phytoplankton populations in Key Largo Harbor, Florida

The antifouling boosting agent Irgarol 1051 is a strong inhibitor of the photosystem II (PSII) with high efficiency/toxicity towards algae. However, because some phytoplankton species are more sensitive to Irgarol than others, its persistent release into the environment could result in adverse changes in the phytoplankton community structure at heavily impacted sites such as marinas. Continuous monitoring in the Florida Keys showed Irgarol concentrations of up to 635 ngL(-1) in the canal system leading to Key Largo Harbor Marina (KLH) with a sharp decrease in concentration at stations offshore from the mouth of the canal. Preliminary phytoplankton community assessments from surface water samples collected in KLH between February and August 2004 showed changes in several phytoplankton species in concordance with the increase of the herbicide concentrations. Typical responses include an increase in the abundance of eukaryotes and Cryptomonas sp. as Irgarol concentrations increase.     

A role for icebergs in the 8.2 ka climate event

We investigate the potential role of icebergs in the 8.2 ka climate event, using a coupled climate model equipped with an iceberg component. First, we evaluate the effect of a large iceberg discharge originating from the decaying Laurentide ice sheet on ocean circulation, compared to a release of an identical volume of freshwater alone. Our results show that, on top of the freshwater effect, a large iceberg discharge facilitates sea-ice growth as a result of lower sea-surface temperatures induced by latent heat of melting. This causes an 8% increased sea-ice cover, 5% stronger reduction in North Atlantic Deep Water production and 1°C lower temperature in Greenland. Second, we use the model to investigate the effect of a hypothetical two-stage lake drainage, which is suggested by several investigators to have triggered the 8.2 ka climate event. To account for the final collapse of the ice-dam holding the Laurentide Lakes we accompany the secondary freshwater pulse in one scenario with a fast 5-year iceberg discharge and in a second scenario with a slow 100-year iceberg discharge. Our experiments show that a two-stage lake drainage accompanied by the collapsing ice-dam could explain the anomalies observed around the 8.2 ka climate event in various climate records. In addition, they advocate a potential role for icebergs in the 8.2 ka climate event and illustrate the importance of latent heat of melting in the simulation of climate events that involve icebergs. Our two-stage lake drainage experiments provide a framework in the discussion of two-stage lake drainage and ice sheet collapse.     

Deep-ocean heat uptake and equilibrium climate response

We integrate the coupled climate model ECHAM5/MPIOM to equilibrium under atmospheric CO₂ quadrupling. The equilibrium global-mean surface-temperature change is 10.8 K. The surface equilibrates within about 1,200 years, the deep ocean within 5,000 years. The impact of the deep ocean on the equilibrium surface-temperature response is illustrated by the difference between ECHAM5/MPIOM and ECHAM5 coupled with slab ocean model (ECHAM5/SOM). The equilibrium global-mean surface temperature response is 11.1 K in ECHAM5/SOM and is thus 0.3 K higher than in ECHAM5/MPIOM. ECHAM5/MPIOM shows less warming over the northern-hemisphere mid and high latitudes, but larger warming over the tropical ocean and especially over the southern-hemisphere high latitudes. ECHAM5/MPIOM shows similar polar amplification in both the Arctic and the Antarctic, in contrast to ECHAM5/SOM, which shows stronger polar amplification in the northern hemisphere. The southern polar warming in ECHAM5/MPIOM is greatly delayed by Antarctic deep-ocean warming due to convective and isopycnal mixing. The equilibrium ocean temperature warming under CO₂ quadrupling is around 8.0 K and is near-uniform with depth. The global-mean steric sea-level rise is 5.8 m in equilibrium; of this, 2.3 m are due to the deep-ocean warming after the surface temperature has almost equilibrated. This result suggests that the surface temperature change is a poor predictor for steric sea-level change in the long term. The effective climate response method described in Gregory et al. (2004) is evaluated with our simulation, which shows that their method to estimate the equilibrium climate response is accurate to within 10 %.