Sensitivity analysis of a deterministic water temperature model to forest canopy and soil temperature in Catamaran Brook (New Brunswick,Canada)

A coupled deterministic hydrological and water temperature model, CEQUEAU, was modified to include soil temperature and crown closure in its calculation of local advective terms in the heat budget. The modified model was than tested to verify its sensitivity to these modifications. An analysis of the heat budget of a small forested catchment in eastern Canada revealed that the advective term related to interflow plays a significant role in the daily water heat budget, providing on average 28% of the local advective budget (which also includes advective heat terms from surface runoff and groundwater) and nearly 14% of the total heat budget (which includes all radiative terms at the water surface, convection and evaporation, as well as the local advective terms). Relative sensitivity indices (RSIs) were used to verify the impact of the newly introduced parameters and variables. Among them, parameters related to the forest cover (crown closure and leaf area index) have a maximum RSI of ?0·6; i.e. a 100% increase in value produces a 60% decrease in the local advective term. Parameters with the greatest influence are the volume of water contributing to interflow and the amplitude of the net radiative flux at the soil surface, which, if doubled, would double the contribution of the local interflow advective term to the heat budget. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulation of seismic response in a city-like environment

We study the seismic response of idealized 2D cities, constituted by non-equally spaced, non-equally sized homogenized blocks anchored in a soft layer overlying a hard half space. The blocks and soft layer are occupied by dissipative media. To simulate such response, we use an approximation of the viscoelastic modulus by a low-order rational function of frequency and incorporate this approximation into a first-order-in-time scheme. Our results display spatially variable, strong, long-duration responses inside the blocks and on the ground, which qualitatively match the responses observed in some earthquake-prone cities of Mexico, France, the USA, etc.     

Implementing low-cost landslide risk reduction: a pilot study in unplanned housing areas of the Caribbean

Landslides pose a serious physical and environmental threat to vulnerable communities living in areas of unplanned housing on steep slopes in the Caribbean. Some of these communities have, in the past, had to be relocated, at costs of millions of dollars, because of major slides triggered by tropical storm rainfall. Even so, evidence shows that: (1) risk reduction is a marginal activity; (2) there has been minimal uptake of hazard maps and vulnerability assessments and (3) there is little on-the-ground delivery of construction for risk reduction. This article directly addresses these issues by developing a low-cost approach to the identification of the potential pore pressure changes that trigger such slides we seek to address these three commentaries directly. A complex 45–60° slope site in St Lucia, West Indies was selected as a pilot for a modelling approach that uses numerical models (FLAC and CHASM) to verify the need for surface water management to effectively reduce landslide risk. Following the model confirmation, a series of drains were designed and constructed at the site. Post-construction evidence indicates the methodology to be sound, in that the site was stable in subsequent 1-in-1 to 1-in-4 year rainfall events. A critical feature of the approach is that it is community-based from data acquisition through to community members participating in construction.     

Active spreading and hydrothermalism in North Fiji Basin (SW Pacific). Results of Japanese French Cruise Kaiyo 87

The aim of the Japanese-French Kaiyo 87 cruise was the study of the spreading axis in the North Fiji Basin (SW Pacific). A Seabeam and geophysical survey allowed us to define the detailed structure of the active NS spreading axis between 16° and 22° S and its relationships with the left lateral motion of the North Fiji Fracture Zone. Between 21° S and 18°10′ S, the spreading axis trends NS. From 18°10 S to 16°40 S the orientation of the spreading axis changes from NS to 015°. North of 16°40′ S the spreading axis trends 160°. These two 015° and 160° branches converge with the left lateral North Fiji fracture zone around 16°40′ S to define an RRFZ triple junction. Water sampling, dredging and photo TV deep towing give new information concerning the hydrothermal activity along the spreading axis. The discovery of hydrothermal deposits associated with living communities confirms this activity.     

Evolution of the late Pleistocene Mojanda–Fuya Fuya volcanic complex (Ecuador), by progressive adakitic involvement in mantle magma sources

The Mojanda–Fuya Fuya Volcanic Complex consists of two nearby volcanoes, Mojanda and Fuya Fuya. The older one, Mojanda volcano (0.6 to 0.2 Ma), was first constructed by andesites and high-silica andesites forming a large stratovolcano (Lower Mojanda). This edifice was capped by a basaltic andesite and andesitic cone (Upper Mojanda), which collapsed later to form a 3-km-wide summit caldera, after large phreatomagmatic eruptions. The Lower Fuya Fuya edifice was constructed by the extrusion of viscous Si-rich andesitic lavas and dacitic domes, and the emission of a thick sequence of pyroclastic-flow and fallout deposits which include two voluminous rhyolitic layers. An intermediate construction phase at Fuya Fuya is represented by a mainly effusive cone, andesitic in composition (San Bartolo edifice), the construction of which was interrupted by a major sector collapse in the Late Pleistocene. Finally, a complex of thick siliceous lavas and domes was emplaced within the avalanche amphitheatre, forming the Upper Fuya Fuya volcanic centre. This paper shows that the general evolution from an effusive to an explosive eruptive style is related to a progressive adakitic contribution to the magma source. Although all the rocks of the complex are included in the medium-K field of continental arcs, the Fuya Fuya suite (61–75 wt.% SiO₂) shows depletion in Y and HREE and high Sr/Y and La/Yb values, compared to the less silicic Mojanda suite (55–66.5 wt.% SiO₂). The Mojanda calc-alkaline suite was generated by partial melting of an adakite-metasomatised mantle source that left a residue with 2% garnet, followed by fractional crystallization of dominant plagioclase + pyroxene + olivine at shallow, intra-crustal depths. For Fuya Fuya, geochemical and mineralogical data suggest either (1) partial melting of a similar metasomatised mantle with more garnet in the residue (4%), followed by fractional crystallization involving plagioclase, amphibole and pyroxene, or (2) mixing of mafic mantle-derived magma from the Mojanda suite and slab melts, followed by the same fractional crystallization process.     

The Influence of Topology on Hydraulic Conductivity in a Sand-and-Gravel Aquifer

A field experiment consisting of geophysical logging and tracer testing was conducted in a single well that penetrated a sand-and-gravel aquifer at the U.S. Geological Survey Toxic Substances Hydrology research site on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Geophysical logs and flowmeter/pumping measurements were obtained to estimate vertical profiles of porosity ϕ, hydraulic conductivity K, temperature, and bulk electrical conductivity under background, freshwater conditions. Saline-tracer fluid was then injected into the well for 2 h and its radial migration into the surrounding deposits was monitored by recording an electromagnetic-induction log every 10 min. The field data are analyzed and interpreted primarily through the use of Archie's (1942) law to investigate the role of topological factors such as pore geometry and connectivity, and grain size and packing configuration in regulating fluid flow through these coarse-grained materials. The logs reveal no significant correlation between K and ϕ, and imply that groundwater models that link these two properties may not be useful at this site. Rather, it is the distribution and connectivity of the fluid phase as defined by formation factor F, cementation index m, and tortuosity α that primarily control the hydraulic conductivity. Results show that F correlates well with K, thereby indicating that induction logs provide qualitative information on the distribution of hydraulic conductivity. A comparison of α, which incorporates porosity data, with K produces only a slightly better correlation and further emphasizes the weak influence of the bulk value of ϕ on K.     

Twentieth century ENSO characteristics in the IPCC database

In this paper, we assess and compare to observations the spatial characteristics of the twentieth Century ENSO SST variability simulated by 23 models of the IPCC-AR4/CMIP3 database. The analysis is confined to the SST anomalies along the equatorial Pacific and is based on the use of a non-linear neural classification algorithm, the Self-Organizing Maps. Systematic biases include a larger than observed proportion for modelled ENSO maximum variability occurring in the Western Pacific. No clear relationship is found between this bias and the characteristics of the modelled mean state bias in the equatorial Pacific. This bias is mainly related to a misrepresentation of both El Niño and La Niña termination phases for most of the models. In contrast, the onset phase is quite well simulated. Modelled El Niño and La Niña peak phases display an asymmetric bias. Whereas the main bias of the modelled El Niño peak is to exhibit a maximum in the western Pacific, the simulated La Niña bias mainly occurs in the central Pacific. In addition, some models are able to capture the observed El Niño peak characteristics while none of them realistically simulate La Niña peaks. It also arises that the models closest to the observations score unevenly in reproducing the different phases, preventing an accurate classification of the models quality to reproduce the overall ENSO-like variability.     

Triggering of El Niño by westerly wind events in a coupled general circulation model

Two ten-members ensemble experiments using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model are performed to study the dynamical response to a strong westerly wind event (WWE) when the tropical Pacific has initial conditions favourable to the development of a warm event. In the reference ensemble (CREF), no wind perturbation is introduced, whereas a strong westerly wind event anomaly is introduced in boreal winter over the western Pacific in the perturbed ensemble (CWWE). Our results demonstrate that an intense WWE is capable of establishing the conditions under which a strong El Niño event can occur. First, it generates a strong downwelling Kelvin wave that generates a positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the central-eastern Pacific amplified through a coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction. This anomaly can be as large as 2.5°C 60 days after the WWE. Secondly, this WWE also initiates an eastward displacement of the warm-pool that promotes the occurrence of subsequent WWEs in the following months. These events reinforce the initial warming through the generation of additional Kelvin waves and generate intense surface jets at the eastern edge of the warm-pool that act to further shift warm waters eastward. The use of a ten-members ensemble however reveals substantial differences in the coupled response to a WWE. Whereas four members of CWWE ensemble develop into intense El Niño warming as described above, four others display a moderate warming and two remains in neutral conditions. This diversity between the members appears to be due to the internal atmospheric variability during and following the inserted WWE. In the four moderate warm cases, the warm-pool is initially shifted eastward following the inserted WWE, but the subsequent weak WWE activity (when compared to the strong warming cases) prevents to further shift the warm-pool eastwards. The seasonal strengthening of trade winds in June–July can therefore act to shift warm waters back into the western Pacific, reducing the central-eastern Pacific warming. This strong sensitivity of the coupled response to WWEs may therefore limit the predictability of El Niño events, as the high frequency wind variability over the warm pool region remains largely unpredictable even at short time lead.