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1.
The multi-decadal wave conditions in the North Sea can be influenced by anthropogenic climate change. That may lead to the intensification of wave extremes in the future and consequently increase risks for the coastal areas as well as for on- and offshore human activities. Potential changes caused by alteration of atmospheric patterns are investigated. Four transient climate projections (1961–2100), reflecting two IPCC emission scenarios (A1B and B1) and two different initial states, are used to simulate the wave scenarios. The potential wind-induced changes in waves are studied by comparing future statistics (2001–2100) with the corresponding reference conditions (1961–2000). Generally, there is a small increase in future 99th percentile significant wave height for most eastern parts of the North Sea towards the end of the twenty-first century. This small increase is superimposed by a strong variability of the annual extremes on time scales of decades. Opposite to the differences in wave height, the change in wave direction to more waves propagating east shows less decadal variability and is more uniform among all realizations. Nevertheless, temporal and spatial differences of the wave height in the four climate projections point to the uncertainties in the climate change signals. 相似文献
2.
Rainfall, slopewash (the erosion of soil particles), surface runoff and fine-litter transport steepland sites in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico (18° 20’ N, 65° 45’ W) were measured from 1991 to 1995. Hillslopes underlain by (1) Cretaceous tuffaceous sandstone and silstone in subtropical rain (tanonuco) forest with vegetation recovering from Hurricane Hugo (1989), and (2) Tertiary quartz diorite in subtropical lower mantone wet (colorado and dwarf) forest with undisturbed forest canopy were compared to recent landslide scars. Monthly surface runoff on these very steep hillslopes (24° to 43°) was only 0·2 to 0·5 per cent of monthly rainfall. Slopewash was higher in sandy loam soils whose parent material is quartz diorite (averaging 46 g m−2 a−1) than in silty clay loam soils derived from tuffaceous sandstone and siltstone where the average was 9 g m−2 a−1. Annual slopewash of 100 to 349 g m−2 on the surfaces of two recent, small landslide scars was measured initially but slopewash decreased to only 3 to 4 g m−2 a−1 by the end of the study. The mean annual mass of fine litter (mainly leaves and twigs) transported downslope at the forested sites ranged from 5 to 8 g m−2 and was lower at the tabonuco forest site, where post-Hurricane Hugo recovery is still in progress. Mean annual fine-litter transport was 2·5 g m−2 on the two landslide scars. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
3.
Remotely sensed estimation of forest canopy density: A comparison of the performance of four methods
Chudamani Joshi Jan De Leeuw Andrew K. Skidmore Iris C. van Duren Henk van Oosten 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2006
In recent years, a number of alternative methods have been proposed to predict forest canopy density from remotely sensed data. To date, however, it remains difficult to decide which method to use, since their relative performance has never been evaluated. In this study the performance of: (1) an artificial neural network, (2) a multiple linear regression, (3) the forest canopy density mapper and (4) a maximum likelihood classification method was compared for prediction of forest canopy density using a Landsat ETM+ image. Comparison of confusion matrices revealed that the regression model performed significantly worse than the three other methods. These results were based on a z-test for comparison of weighted kappa statistics, which is an appropriate statistic for analysis of ranked categories. About 89% of the variance of the observed canopy density was explained by the artificial neural networks, which outperformed the other three methods in this respect. Moreover, the artificial neural networks gave an unbiased prediction, while other methods systematically under or over predicted forest canopy density. The choice of biased method could have a high impact on canopy density inventories. 相似文献
4.
Iris Wilke Helge Meggers Torsten Bickert 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2009,56(1):89-106
Seasonal depth stratified plankton tows, sediment traps and core tops taken from the same stations along a transect at 29°N off NW Africa are used to describe the seasonal succession, the depth habitats and the oxygen isotope ratios (δ18Oshell) of five planktic foraminiferal species. Both the δ18Oshell and shell concentration profiles show variations in seasonal depth habitats of individual species. None of the species maintain a specific habitat depth exclusively within the surface mixed layer (SML), within the thermocline, or beneath the thermocline. Globigerinoides ruber (white) and (pink) occur with moderate abundance throughout the year along the transect, with highest abundances in the winter and summer/fall season, respectively. The average δ18Oshell of G. ruber (w) from surface sediments is similar to the δ18Oshell values measured from the sediment-trap samples during winter. However, the δ18Oshell of G. ruber (w) underestimates sea surface temperature (SST) by 2 °C in winter and by 4 °C during summer/fall indicating an extension of the calcification/depth habitat into colder thermocline waters. Globigerinoides ruber (p) continues to calcify below the SML as well, particularly in summer/fall when the chlorophyll maximum is found within the thermocline. Its vertical distribution results in δ18Oshell values that underestimate SST by 2 °C. Shell fluxes of Globigerina bulloides are highest in summer/fall, where it lives and calcifies in association with the deep chlorophyll maximum found within the thermocline. Pulleniatina obliquiloculata and Globorotalia truncatulinoides, dwelling and calcifying a part of their lives in the winter SML, record winter thermocline (~180 m) and deep surface water (~350 m) temperatures, respectively. Our observations define the seasonal and vertical distribution of multiple species of foraminifera and the acquisition of their δ18Oshell. 相似文献
5.
Iris Levin 《The Australian geographer》2012,43(3):303-320
Meanings behind the choice of the migrant house are explored through an examination of 12 houses of migrants who emigrated from mainland China to Melbourne during the 1990s and 2000s. A qualitative investigation shows that there are three interconnected meanings behind the choice of houses in Melbourne: a desire to counter past experiences of housing in China, a desire to improve future opportunities through housing, and the wish to blend into Australian society. While much of the literature claims that migrant housing represents the ethnic character of their owners through architectural features, these Chinese houses do not resemble past houses in China in any physical way. The location of the house in a ‘good’ suburb was the most important factor when choosing the house. The house should be located near good educational, transport and shopping services before the built form becomes important. Chinese migrants wish to assimilate into Australian society through their choice of ordinary houses that do not communicate their ethnic identity through their external façades, while also adopting Australian ways of living that are focused on gardens and backyards. 相似文献
6.
Laboratory experiments were performed on the food ecology of four congeneric species of free-living plathelminths, Promesostoma caligulatum, P. marmoratum, P. rostratum, and P. meixneri, all inhabiting an intertidal sandflat near the island of Sylt (North Sea). Their prey spectrum is within the microcrustaceans: P. caligulatum preferred ostracods, while the other three species favoured copepods, with species-specific differences for copepod species and size classes. Daily consumption of prey species varied with the size of both the predator and the prey. On average, P. marmoratum consumed 0.76 Harpacticus flexus per day while this rate decreased to 0.06 in P. meixneri, the smallest predator. When these Promesostoma species were fed with Tachidius discipes, a smaller prey species, their predation rates were about 25% higher. While the larger predators preferred the larger harpacticoids as prey, the small P. meixneri preferred small cyclopoids over larger harpacticoids. In terms of biomass, P. marmoratum's mean consumption of T. discipes per day was about half the predator's own weight. This average varied with prey density and temperature. A comparison of these consumption rates with the field densities of the predators and their prey shows that the plathelminth predators may consume as much as 10% per day of their copepod prey populations, thus strongly influencing these prey populations on these sandflats. The predation pressure of P. caligulatum on ostracods was about 1% per day of the prey population. Since ostracods usually have fewer generations per year, the total effect on the population dynamics may be similar to that on copepods. Therefore, nocturnal swimming of copepods in the water column may be interpreted as an attempt to escape plathelminth predators. 相似文献
7.
This work presents models of the vertical distribution and flux of phytoplankton aggregates, including changes with time in
the distribution of aggregate sizes and sinking speeds. The distribution of sizes is described by two parameters, the mass
and number of aggregates, which greatly reduces the computational cost of the models. Simple experiments demonstrate the effects
of aggregation on the timing and depth distribution of primary production and export. A more detailed ecological model is
applied to sites in the Arabian Sea; it demonstrates that aggregation can be important for deep sedimentation even when its
effect on surface concentrations is small, and it presents the difference in timing between settlement of aggregates and fecal
pellets. 相似文献
8.
Long-term observations in the Weser estuary (Germany) between 1983 and 1997 provide insight into the response of the estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) under a wide range of conditions. In this estuary the turbidity zone is closely tied to the mixing zone, and the positions of the ETM and the mixing zone vary with runoff. The intratidal suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentrations vary due to deposition during slack water periods, subsequent resubsequent and depletion of temporarily-formed and spatially-limited deposits during the following ebb or flood, and subsequent transport by tidal currents. The corresponding time history of SPM concentrations is remarkably constant over the years. Spring tide SPM concentrations can be twice the neap tide concentrations or even larger. A hysteresis in SPM levels between the falling and rising spring-neap cycle is attributed to enhanced resuspension by the stronger spring tidal currents. There is evidence that the ETM is pushed up-estuary during times of higher mean water levels due to storms. During river floods the ETM is flushed towards the outer estuary. If river floods and their decreasing parts occur during times of relatively high mean water levels, the ETM seems to be maintained in the outer estuary. If river floods and their decreasing parts occur during times of relatively low mean water levels, the ETM seems to loose inventory and may need up to half a year of non-event conditions to gain its former magnitude. During this time seasonal effects may be involved. Analyses of storm events and river floods have revealed that the conditions in the seaward boundary region play an equally important role for the SPM dynamics as those arising from the river. 相似文献
9.
Hildegard?WestphalEmail author Iris?Surholt Christian?Kiesl Holger F. ?Thern Thomas?Kruspe 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2005,162(3):549-570
Carbonate rocks are well known for their complex petrophysical behavior where, in contrast to siliciclastic rocks, different parameters, including porosity and permeability, usually are not directly related. This behavior is the result of thorough reorganization of porosity during diagenesis, and it turns prediction of reservoir quality of carbonate rocks into a challenge. The study presented here deals with the problem of utilizing NMR techniques in prediction of petrophysical properties in carbonates.We employ a visual porosity classification as a priori knowledge for better interpreting NMR data for prediction purposes. This allows for choice of suitable T2 cutoff values to differentiate movable from bound fluids adapted for the specific carbonate rock, thus resulting in better interpretation of NMR data. The approach of using a genetic pore type classification for adapting the conventional method for T2 cutoff determination, which originally was developed for siliciclastic rocks, is promising. Similarly, for permeability determination on the basis of NMR measurements, the classification of carbonate rocks based on porosity types also shows potential. The approach implemented here has the promise to provide a basis of standardized interpretation of NMR data from carbonate rocks.Acknowledgment We are grateful to Baker Hughes INTEQ, Celle, for permission to publish the results of this work. This study was part of I.S.s Masters Thesis at Hannover University that was carried out in collaboration with Baker Hughes INTEQ, Celle, Germany. We appreciate comments of an anonymous referee and PAGEOPH editor Brian J. Mitchell. 相似文献
10.
An analysis of today’s mean and extreme wave conditions in the North Sea and their possible future changes due to anthropogenic climate change are presented. The sea state was simulated for the 30-year period 2071–2100 using the wave model WAM and an ensemble of wind field data sets for four climate change realizations as driving data. The wind field data sets are based on simulation outputs from two global circulation models (GCMs: HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3) for two emission scenarios (A2 and B2, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Special Report on Emission Scenarios). They were regionalized by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute using the regional climate model RCAO. The effects of the climate realizations on the sea state statistics were assessed by analyzing the differences between the patterns in the four CGM/emission scenario combinations and those in two control simulations representing reference wave climate conditions for the 30-year period 1961–1990. The analysis of the four emission scenario/GCM combinations has shown that the future long-term 99 percentile wind speed and significant wave height increase by up to 7% and 18%, respectively, in the North Sea, except for significant wave height off the English coast and to the north in the HadAM3H-driven simulation. The climate change response in the ECHAM4/OPYC3-forced experiments is generally larger than in the HadAM3H-driven simulations. The differences in future significant wave height between the different combinations are in the same order of magnitude as those between the control runs for the two GCMs. Nevertheless, there is agreement among the four combinations that extreme wave heights may increase in large parts in the southern and eastern North Sea by about 0.25 to 0.35 m (5–8% of present values) towards the end of the twenty first century in case of global warming. All combinations also show an increase in future frequency of severe sea state. 相似文献