Incorporating uncertainty of future sea-level rise estimates into vulnerability assessment: A case study in Kahului, Maui

Accurate sea-level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are essential in developing effective management strategies for coastal systems at risk. In this study, we evaluate the effect of combining vertical uncertainties in Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) elevation data, datum transformation and future SLR estimates on estimating potential land area and land cover loss, and whether including uncertainty in future SLR estimates has implications for adaptation decisions in Kahului, Maui. Monte Carlo simulation is used to propagate probability distributions through our inundation model, and the output probability surfaces are generalized as areas of high and low probability of inundation. Our results show that considering uncertainty in just LiDAR and transformation overestimates vulnerable land area by about 3 % for the high probability threshold, resulting in conservative adaptation decisions, and underestimates vulnerable land area by about 14 % for the low probability threshold, resulting in less reliable adaptation decisions for Kahului. Not considering uncertainty in future SLR estimates in addition to LiDAR and transformation has variable effect on SLR adaptation decisions depending on the land cover category and how the high and low probability thresholds are defined. Monte Carlo simulation is a valuable approach to SLR vulnerability assessments because errors are not required to follow a Gaussian distribution.     

Application of petrographic and geochemical methods to sourcing felsitic archaeological materials in Southeastern New England

At least four volcanic complexes of different age and petrologic character occur in southeastern New England. Each complex contains a variety of fine-grained felsitic rocks, and three of these are known to have been quarried by prehistoric people for material used in the production of stone tools. These volcanics include a Late Proterozoic calcalkaline suite (Lynn-Mattapan) and several alkaline suites of Ordovician to Carboniferous age (Blue Hill, Spencer Hill, and Wamsutta suites). Each suite exhibits unique petrographic and geochemical features that help to constrain sources of felsitic archaeological materials. Distinctive petrographic features are: (1) Lynn/Mattapan: mostly pyroclastic rocks that typically contain broken crystals, volcanic clasts, and relict pumice and glass shards; phenocrysts of plagioclase, quartz, and perthite, commonly in glomeroporphyritic clusters; accessory sphene and prominent late-stage epidote; some varieties exhibit distinct flow-banding. (2) Blue Hill and Spencer Hill rocks: mainly lava flows; abundant perthite and quartz phenocrysts, with minor or no plagioclase; accessory minerals may include fluorite, aegerine, riebeckite, zircon, and allanite. (3) Wamsutta rhyolite: phenocrysts solely of anorthoclase; quartz restricted to late-stage filling of vesicles, and to planar, subparallel fractures in-filled as lithophysae; lava flows with devitrified glass matrix. Major element geochemistry is of limited use in distinguishing the volcanic groups, but trace element signatures are distinct and provide excellent criteria to discriminate rocks from each suite. Compared to the Lynn/Mattapan suite, the Blue Hill and Spencer Hill rocks exhibit higher concentrations of Rb, Y, Zr, Nb, La, Ce and Zn, and lower concentrations of Sr and Ba. Wamsutta rhyolite is intermediate in composition, but distinct. Examination of material from six prehistoric quarries, and debitage collected at seven archaeological sites, demonstrates that most samples can be assigned to one of the above volcanic suites based on combined petrographic and geochemical attributes. These geologic attributes add a significant element of quantification to archaeological sourcing problems that lead to improved identification of materials compared to hand sample characterization alone. The volcanics from source areas proximal to the Boston basin were important to Early and Middle Archaic period populations across most of southeastern Massachusetts. During the Late/Terminal Archaic period, these materials were being transported extensively throughout eastern and southeastern Massachusetts, the Narragansett Bay area, and parts of Rhode Island. Thus, routinely applied geological methods can provide useful approaches to constrain the sources of felsites from southeastern New England found in archaeological contexts. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Hydrodynamic simulations of merging clusters of galaxies

We present the results of high-resolution AP³M+SPH simulations of merging clusters of galaxies. We find that the compression and shocking of the core gas during a merger can lead to large increases in bolometric X-ray luminosities and emission-weighted temperatures of clusters. Cooling flows are completely disrupted during equal-mass mergers, with the mass deposition rate dropping to zero as the cores of the clusters collide. The large increase in the cooling time of the core gas strongly suggests that cooling flows will not recover from such a merger within a Hubble time. Mergers with subclumps having one eighth of the mass of the main cluster are also found to disrupt a cooling flow if the merger is head-on. However, in this case the entropy injected into the core gas is rapidly radiated away and the cooling flow restarts within a few Gyr of the merger. Mergers in which the subcluster has an impact parameter of 500 kpc do not disrupt the cooling flow, although the mass deposition rate is reduced by ∼30 per cent. Finally, we find that equal mass, off-centre mergers can effectively mix gas in the cores of clusters, while head on mergers lead to very little mixing. Gas stripped from the outer layers of subclumps results in parts of the outer layers of the main cluster being well mixed, although they have little effect on the gas in the core of the cluster. None of the mergers examined here resulted in the intracluster medium being well mixed globally.     

Thermophysical properties of Almahata Sitta meteorites (asteroid 2008 TC3) for high‐fidelity entry modeling

Asteroid 2008 TC₃ was characterized in a unique manner prior to impacting Earth's atmosphere, making its October 7, 2008, impact a suitable field test for or validating the application of high‐fidelity re‐entry modeling to asteroid entry. The accurate modeling of the behavior of 2008 TC₃ during its entry in Earth's atmosphere requires detailed information about the thermophysical properties of the asteroid's meteoritic materials at temperatures ranging from room temperature up to the point of ablation (T ~ 1400 K). Here, we present measurements of the thermophysical properties up to these temperatures (in a 1 atm. pressure of argon) for two samples of the Almahata Sitta meteorites from asteroid 2008 TC₃: a thick flat‐faced ureilite suitably shaped for emissivity measurements and a thin flat‐faced EL6 enstatite chondrite suitable for diffusivity measurements. Heat capacity was determined from the elemental composition and density from a 3‐D laser scan of the sample. We find that the thermal conductivity of the enstatite chondrite material decreases more gradually as a function of temperature than expected, while the emissivity of the ureilitic material decreases at a rate of 9.5 × 10^?5 K^?1 above 770 K. The entry scenario is the result of the actual flight path being the boundary to the load the meteorite will be affected with when entering. An accurate heat load prediction depends on the thermophysical properties. Finally, based on these data, the breakup can be calculated accurately leading to a risk assessment for ground damage.     

Fraile Detection of Solar $$-Modes by Fossat et al.

The internal gravity modes of the Sun are notoriously difficult to detect, and the claimed detection of gravity modes presented by Fossat et al. (Astron. Astrophys.604, A40, 2017) is thus very exciting. Given the importance of these modes for understanding solar structure and dynamics, the results must be robust. While Fossat et al. described their method and parameter choices in detail, the sensitivity of their results to several parameters was not presented. Therefore, we test the sensitivity of the results to a selection of the parameters. The most concerning result is that the detection vanishes when we adjust the start time of the 16.5-year velocity time-series by a few hours. We conclude that this reported detection of gravity modes is extremely fragile and should be treated with utmost caution.     

Policy options to streamline the carbon market for agricultural nitrous oxide emissions

The majority of emissions of nitrous oxide – a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) – are from agricultural sources, particularly nitrogen fertilizer applications. A growing focus on these emission sources has led to the development in the United States of GHG offset protocols that could enable payment to farmers for reducing fertilizer use or implementing other nitrogen management strategies. Despite the development of several protocols, the current regional scope is narrow, adoption by farmers is low, and policy implementation of protocols has a significant time lag. Here we utilize existing research and policy structures to propose an ‘umbrella’ approach for nitrogen management GHG emissions protocols that has the potential to streamline the policy implementation and acceptance of such protocols. We suggest that the umbrella protocol could set forth standard definitions common across multiple protocol options, and then modules could be further developed as scientific evidence advances. Modules could be developed for specific crops, regions, and practices. We identify a policy process that could facilitate this development in concert with emerging scientific research and conclude by acknowledging potential benefits and limitations of the approach.

Key policy insights

• Agricultural greenhouse gas market options are growing, but are still underutilized

• Streamlining protocol development through an umbrella process could enable quicker development of protocols across new crops, regions, and practices

• Effective protocol development must not compromise best available science and should follow a rigorous pathway to ensure appropriate implementation

     

Molecular distribution, 13C‐isotope,and enantiomeric compositions of carbonaceous chondrite monocarboxylic acids

The water‐soluble organic compounds in carbonaceous chondrite meteorites constitute a record of the synthetic reactions occurring at the birth of the solar system and those taking place during parent body alteration and may have been important for the later origins and development of life on Earth. In this present work, we have developed a novel methodology for the simultaneous analysis of the molecular distribution, compound‐specific δ¹³C, and enantiomeric compositions of aliphatic monocarboxylic acids (MCA) extracted from the hot‐water extracts of 16 carbonaceous chondrites from CM, CR, CO, CV, and CK groups. We observed high concentrations of meteoritic MCAs, with total carbon weight percentages which in some cases approached those of carbonates and insoluble organic matter. Moreover, we found that the concentration of MCAs in CR chondrites is higher than in the other meteorite groups, with acetic acid exhibiting the highest concentration in all samples. The abundance of MCAs decreased with increasing molecular weight and with increasing aqueous and/or thermal alteration experienced by the meteorite sample. The δ¹³C isotopic values of MCAs ranged from ?52 to +27‰, and aside from an inverse relationship between δ¹³C value and carbon straight‐chain length for C₃–C₆ MCAs in Murchison, the ¹³C‐isotopic values did not correlate with the number of carbon atoms per molecule. We also observed racemic compositions of 2‐methylbutanoic acid in CM and CR chondrites. We used this novel analytical protocol and collective data to shed new light on the prebiotic origins of chondritic MCAs.     

Sediment deposition in the flood plain of Stemple Creek Watershed, northern California

Over the past 150 years, major land use changes have occurred in the Stemple Creek Watershed in northern California that have caused erosion to move soils from the upland to the flood plain, stream channels, and the bay. The purpose of this study is to document the recent (1954 to present) sediment deposition patterns in the flood plain area adjacent to Stemple Creek using the ¹³⁷Cesium technique. Sediment deposition ranged from 0.26 to 1.84 cm year⁻¹ for the period from 1964 to 2002 with an average of 0.85±0.41 cm year⁻¹. Sediment deposition rates were higher for the 1954 to 1964 period with a range of 0.31–3.50 cm year⁻¹ and an average of 1.29±1.04 cm year⁻¹. These data indicate that sediment deposition in the flood plain has decreased since the middle 1950s, probably related to reduction in row crop agriculture and an increase in pasturelands. This study shows that the flood plains in the Stemple Creek Watershed are a significant sink for the soils being eroded from the upland area. Given the significance of the flood plain for trapping eroded materials before they reach the stream channels or the bay, efforts need to be made to manage these flood plain areas to insure that they do not change and become a source rather than a sink for eroded materials as improved management practices on the upland areas reduce sediment input to the flood plain.     

Insights into syndepositional fault movement in a foreland basin; trends in seismites of the Upper Cretaceous,Wahweap Formation,Kaiparowits Basin,Utah, USA

The Upper Cretaceous Wahweap Formation accumulated in the active Cordilleran foreland basin of Utah. Soft‐sediment deformation structures are abundant in the capping sandstone member of the Wahweap Formation. By comparing with well‐established criteria, a seismogenic origin was determined for the majority of structures, which places these soft‐sediment deformation features in a class of sedimentary features referred to as seismites. A systematic study of the seismite trends included their vertical and horizontal distribution and a semi‐quantitative intensity analysis using a scale from 1 to 5 that is based on magnitude, sedimentary structure type, and the predominance of inferred process of hydroplastic deformation, liquefaction or fluidization. In addition, orientations of soft‐sediment fold axes were recorded. Construction of a northwest‐to‐southeast stratigraphic and seismite intensity cross‐section demonstrates: (1) reduction in stratigraphic thickness and percentage of conglomerates to the southeast, (2) the presence of lower seismite, middle nonseismite, and upper seismite zones within the capping sandstone (permitting subdivision of the capping sandstone member), and (3) elimination of the nonseismite zone and amalgamation of the lower and upper seismite zones to the southeast. Regional isoseismal contour maps generated from the semi‐quantitative analysis indicate a decrease in overall intensity from northwest to southeast in the upper and lower seismic zones and in sandstone within 5 m stratigraphically of the contact between the upper and capping sandstone members. In addition, cumulative seismite fold orientations support a west–northwest direction towards regional epicentres. Isoseismal maps are used to distinguish the effects of intrabasinal normal faulting from those of regional orogenic thrusting. Thus, this study demonstrates the utility of mapping seismites to separate the importance of regional vs. local tectonic activity influencing foreland basin sedimentation by identifying patterns that delineate palaeoepicentres associated with specific local intrabasinal normal faults vs. regional trends in soft‐sediment deformation related to Sevier belt earthquakes.     

Delivering the two degree global climate change target using a flexible ratchet framework

Global climate negotiations have been characterized by a divide between developed and developing nations – a split which has served as a persistent barrier to international agreement within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change process. Notable progress in bridging this division was achieved at the 21st Conference of the Parties meeting in Paris through the introduction of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). However, the collective ambition of submitted INDCs falls short of a global 2°C target, requiring an effective ratchet mechanism to review and increase national commitments. Inequitable distribution of additional responsibilities risks re-opening historic divisions between parties. This article presents a flexible ratchet framework which shares mitigation commitments on the basis of per capita equity in line with emerging requirements for a 2°C target. The framework has been designed through convergence between developed and developing nations; developed nation targets are based on an agreed standardized percentage reduction wherever emissions are above per capita equity; developing nations are required to peak emissions at or below per capita equity levels by an agreed convergence date. The proposed framework has the flexibility to be integrated with current INDCs and to evolve in line with shifting estimates of climate sensitivity.

Policy relevance

The outcome of the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) negotiations in Paris offered mixed results in terms of level of ambition and submitted national commitments. A global agreement to keep average global temperature rise below two degrees was maintained; however, current pledged Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) are projected to result in an average warming of close to three degrees. The implementation of a global ratchet mechanism to scale-up national commitments will remain key to closing this ambition gap to reach this two degree target. How this upscaling of responsibility is shared between parties will be a defining discussion point within future negotiations. This study presents a standardized, equity-based framework for how this ratchet mechanism can be implemented – a framework designed to be flexible for evolution in line with better understanding of climate sensitivity, and adaptable for integrations with current INDC proposals.