Fractal space-time and black-body radiation

We discuss the possibility of setting upper limits to deviations of the dimensionD of space from the standard integer value of 3. The method we suggest — a reanalysis of the Planck law for the black-body radiation in aD-dimensional space — is less sensitive than other methods previously suggested. It offers, however, the possibility of probing the fractal dimension of space-time over cosmological distances.     

Science-based approach for credible accounting of mitigation in managed forests

Background

The credibility and effectiveness of country climate targets under the Paris Agreement requires that, in all greenhouse gas (GHG) sectors, the accounted mitigation outcomes reflect genuine deviations from the type and magnitude of activities generating emissions in the base year or baseline. This is challenging for the forestry sector, as the future net emissions can change irrespective of actual management activities, because of age-related stand dynamics resulting from past management and natural disturbances. The solution implemented under the Kyoto Protocol (2013–2020) was accounting mitigation as deviation from a projected (forward-looking) “forest reference level”, which considered the age-related dynamics but also allowed including the assumed future implementation of approved policies. This caused controversies, as unverifiable counterfactual scenarios with inflated future harvest could lead to credits where no change in management has actually occurred, or conversely, failing to reflect in the accounts a policy-driven increase in net emissions. Instead, here we describe an approach to set reference levels based on the projected continuation of documented historical forest management practice, i.e. reflecting age-related dynamics but not the future impact of policies. We illustrate a possible method to implement this approach at the level of the European Union (EU) using the Carbon Budget Model.

Results

Using EU country data, we show that forest sinks between 2013 and 2016 were greater than that assumed in the 2013–2020 EU reference level under the Kyoto Protocol, which would lead to credits of 110–120 Mt CO₂/year (capped at 70–80 Mt CO₂/year, equivalent to 1.3% of 1990 EU total emissions). By modelling the continuation of management practice documented historically (2000–2009), we show that these credits are mostly due to the inclusion in the reference levels of policy-assumed harvest increases that never materialized. With our proposed approach, harvest is expected to increase (12% in 2030 at EU-level, relative to 2000–2009), but more slowly than in current forest reference levels, and only because of age-related dynamics, i.e. increased growing stocks in maturing forests.

Conclusions

Our science-based approach, compatible with the EU post-2020 climate legislation, helps to ensure that only genuine deviations from the continuation of historically documented forest management practices are accounted toward climate targets, therefore enhancing the consistency and comparability across GHG sectors. It provides flexibility for countries to increase harvest in future reference levels when justified by age-related dynamics. It offers a policy-neutral solution to the polarized debate on forest accounting (especially on bioenergy) and supports the credibility of forest sector mitigation under the Paris Agreement.

     

Non-resonant secular dynamics of trans-Neptunian objects perturbed by a distant super-Earth

We use a secular model to describe the non-resonant dynamics of trans-Neptunian objects in the presence of an external ten-Earth-mass perturber. The secular dynamics is analogous to an “eccentric Kozai mechanism” but with both an inner component (the four giant planets) and an outer one (the eccentric distant perturber). By the means of Poincaré sections, the cases of a non-inclined or inclined outer planet are successively studied, making the connection with previous works. In the inclined case, the problem is reduced to two degrees of freedom by assuming a non-precessing argument of perihelion for the perturbing body. The size of the perturbation is typically ruled by the semi-major axis of the small body: we show that the classic integrable picture is still valid below about 70 AU, but it is progressively destroyed when we get closer to the external perturber. In particular, for \(a>150\) AU, large-amplitude orbital flips become possible, and for \(a>200\) AU, the Kozai libration islands at \(\omega =\pi /2\) and \(3\pi /2\) are totally submerged by the chaotic sea. Numerous resonance relations are highlighted. The most large and persistent ones are associated with apsidal alignments or anti-alignments with the orbit of the distant perturber.     

Backward automatic calibration for three-dimensional landslide models

Back-analysis is broadly used for approaching geotechnical problems when monitoring data are available and information about the soils properties is of poor quality.For landslide stability assessment back-analysis calibration is usually carried out by time consuming trial-and-error procedure.This paper presents a new automatic Decision Support System that supports the selection of the soil parameters for three-dimensional models of landslides based on monitoring data.The method considering a pool of possible solutions,generated through permutation of soil parameters,selects the best ten configurations that are more congruent with the measured displacements.This reduces the operator biases while on the other hand allows the operator to control each step of the computation.The final selection of the preferred solution among the ten best-fitting solutions is carried out by an operator.The operator control is necessary as he may include in the final decision process all the qualitative elements that cannot be included in a qualitative analysis but nevertheless characterize a landslide dynamic as a whole epistemological subject,for example on the base of geomorphological evidence.A landslide located in Northeast Italy has been selected as example for showing the system potentiality.The proposed method is straightforward,scalable and robust and could be useful for researchers and practitioners.     

Magma chambers and localization of deformation during thrusting

Terra Nova, 22, 390–395, 2010 Abstract We present the results of coupled analogue and numerical models that provide new insights into the relationships between volcanoes and thrusts. The effects of both upper‐crustal magma chambers and the load of volcanoes on the geometry of thrust systems were investigated. Analogue modelling points to a strong influence exerted by a magma chamber on thrust geometry, which, as suggested by the numerical models used to rationalize these results, is related to the stress redistribution around the weak heterogeneity. The low‐viscosity body below a volcanic edifice localizes compressional deformation and causes a curvature of the thrusts towards the magma chamber, opposite to the direction of tectonic transport. In these conditions, the volcanic load has a negligible effect on the structural geometry. These results are in contrast with those of previous studies, where intrusions or the load of major volcanoes generated a curvature of the thrusts away from volcanic edifices in the direction of tectonic transport.     

Groundwater resource degradation in coastal plains: The example of the Cecina area (Tuscany – Central Italy)

The paper describes the degradation of the groundwater resources in the Cecina area, where seawater intrusion, B contamination and NO₃ pollution are all affecting the heavily exploited Pleistocene aquifer. Over-pumping has brought water levels to about 0 m.a.s.l. as far as about 7 km from the shore line, thereby promoting the seawater intrusion. The intrusion, which is characterized by cation exchange phenomena and Ca–Cl type waters, enters the plain mostly through the shallower horizons. The saline front, which advanced from 0.5 to 1 km in 4 a, has by now reached the foot of the hills to the east of the town, where it is also affecting wells of the local aqueduct. Boron contamination, linked to past discharge of industrial waste transported downstream by the river, reached concentrations as high as 3.5 mg/L in the mid-1980s. Although a decreasing trend is now under way, B content is still close to 1 mg/L. The presence of high NO₃, which, together with the seawater intrusion, represents a major issue for groundwater management in the area, is linked to the widespread utilization of fertilizers. Nitrate concentration, which reaches a maximum of about 300 mg/L in the shallow aquifer horizons and then decreases rather regularly with depth, is strongly influenced by precipitation. However, irrigation also contributes significantly to transporting the NO₃ contamination to depth, as clearly shown by δ¹⁸O data. The severe decline in the quality of the groundwater resource in the Cecina area is further compounded by an overall decrease in water availability in the region of Tuscany, as evidenced by long-term monitoring of precipitation and fluvial discharge.     

Solar Coronal Plasma in Doppler Measurements

Doppler tracking of an interplanetary spacecraft near solar conjunction is strongly affected by the plasma in the solar corona, the main competitive contribution in measurements of the gravitational deflection of light rays. With the simultaneous availability of carriers in X band and K_a band for interplanetary communications, the plasma contribution to the corona can be accurately eliminated and measured. If, as in the Cassini mission, three different observables are available, this can be done in two ways: one deals with the total plasma content in the electric approximation, even in the ionosphere and interplanetary space; another is limited to the corona, but has access to subtler effects, like the magnetic correction to the refractive index. This technique will allow important progress in the radio investigation of the solar corona.     

Modeling of the Guagua Pichincha volcano (Ecuador) lahars

Lahars, here defined as debris flows of volcanic origin, are rapid mass movements that pose a serious threat to cities located in the vicinity of many volcanoes. Quito, capital city of Ecuador and placed at the foot of the Pichincha volcano complex, is exposed to serious inundation hazard as part of the city is built on numerous deposits of large lahars that have occurred in the last 10,000 years.The objective of this paper is to model the potential lahars of the Pichincha volcano to predict inundation areas within the city of Quito. For this purpose two models that apply different approaches were utilized and their results were compared.The programs used were LAHARZ, a semi-empirical model conceived by the United States Geological Survey (USGS), and FLO-2D, a hydraulic model distributed by FLO Software Inc. LAHARZ is designed as a rapid, objective and reproducible automated method for mapping areas of potential lahar inundation (Proc. First Int. Conf. on Debris Flow Hazards Mitigation, San Francisco, USA, ASCE, 1998, p. 176). FLO-2D is a two-dimensional flood routing model for simulating overland flow on complex surfaces such as floodplains, alluvial fans or urbanized areas (FLO-2D Users manual, version 99.2). Both models run within geographical information systems (GIS).Fieldwork was focused on collecting all available information involved in lahar modeling. A total of 49 channel cross-sections were measured along the two main streams and stratigraphic investigations were carried out on the fans to estimate the volume of previous events. A global positioning system was utilized to determine the coordinates of each cross-section. Further data collection concerned topography, rainfall characteristics and ashfall thicknesses. All fieldwork was carried out in cooperation with the Instituto Geofisico of the Escuela Politecnica Nacional.Modeling in a GIS environment greatly aided the exportation of results for the creation of thematic maps and facilitated model comparison. Evaluation of the models was performed by comparing simulation results against each other and against the geometry of existing lahar deposits.     

Direct evidence of Middle Oligocene extension in the Calabria–Peloritani terrane from co-seismic faulting: the pseudotachylyte-bearing shear zones of Palmi (southern Calabria, Italy)

The Variscan crystalline basement of the Calabria–Peloritani terrane (CPT) in southern Italy was partly reworked by ductile and brittle shear zones throughout the Alpine tectonic evolution (from thickening to exhumation). Although evidence of extensional tectonics in the CPT has already been found and roughly constrained to the Oligocene onward, no attempt has ever been made to directly date brittle fault movements. Structural (meso- and micro-scale), kinematic and petrographic analyses and ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar laser experiments reveal that the pseudotachylyte-bearing shear zones of the Palmi area in southern Calabria formed in response to extensional shearing ∼33.5 Ma ago and overprinted compressional tectonic structures. Results provide the first direct evidence of Middle Oligocene co-seismic faulting in the area and confirm the role of extensional tectonics in promoting the Oligocene exhumation of the Calabria basement.