A resin nodule in the Cretaceous Garschella Formation from Langer Köchel (Bavaria, S Germany): possible origin and palaeogeographic provenance

A resin nodule was found in glauconite-rich detrital sediments of the Cretaceous Garschella Formation (Aptian to Albian) outcropping at Langer Köchel (Bavaria, S Germany). Gas chromatographic and mass spectrometric analyses of the fossil resin revealed dealkylation and the total defunctionalisation of its polycyclic constituents. Besides many unspecific components a specific one, agathalene, has survived. Agathalene also presents a strongly degraded product, but may have been derived from its natural precursor agathic acid, which is a very specific constituent (biomarker) of recent and fossil kauri resin. Although agathalene is a far less specific secondary biomarker, it indicates the botanic origin of the fossil resin nodule. Besides other potential producers of agathic acid, precursors of the present-day conifer species Agathis dammara and A. australis were distributed in a wider palaeophytogeographic range than today and might have been the botanical source of kauri resin. In view of the east–west directed Early Cretaceous surface current system of the Tethys ocean, the palaeogeographic provenance of the Werdenfels resin nodule probably was a mainland positioned further to the east or southeast of the Helvetic shelf, to where it was transported probably by driftwood of the resin-producing Agathis sp.     

Projected changes in tropical cyclone climatology and landfall in the Southwest Indian Ocean region under enhanced anthropogenic forcing

The conformal-cubic atmospheric model, a variable-resolution global model, is applied at high spatial resolution to perform simulations of present-day and future climate over southern Africa and over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The model is forced with the bias-corrected sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice of six coupled global climate models that contributed to Assessment Report 4 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. All six simulations are for the period 1961–2100, under the A2 emission scenario. Projections for the latter part of the 21st century indicate a decrease in the occurrence of tropical cyclones over the Southwest Indian Ocean adjacent to southern Africa, as well as a northward shift in the preferred landfall position of these systems over the southern African subcontinent. A concurrent increase in January to March rainfall is projected for northern Mozambique and southern Tanzania, with decreases projected further south over semi-arid areas such as the Limpopo River Basin where these systems make an important contribution as main cause of widespread heavy rainfall. It is shown that the projected changes in tropical cyclone attributes and regional rainfall occur in relation to changes in larger scale atmospheric temperature, pressure and wind profiles of the southern African region and adjacent oceans.     

Two new pulsating hot subdwarf stars from the Edinburgh-Cape survey

We report the discovery of very rapid pulsations in two hot subdwarf stars from the Edinburgh-Cape blue object survey. The short periods, small amplitudes and multiperiodicity establish these stars as members of the class of rapidly-pulsating sdB stars. The spectrograms of both stars, however, show relatively strong He  ii 4686 and they are therefore more properly classified as sdOB. The light curve of EC 01541−1409 is dominated by two strong (∼1 per cent) variations with frequencies near 7114 and 7870 μHz (periods near 140.6 and 127.1 s), though at least five frequencies are present with amplitudes above about 0.002 mag. The light curve of EC 22221−3152 appears to be generated by at least 10 frequencies in the range 5670–11850 μHz (about 175–85 s) with amplitudes between about 0.01 and 0.001 mag, including the first overtone of the strongest variation. Somewhat surprisingly, this number of frequencies is detectable in observing runs as short as 3 h, probably due to the fact that the detected frequencies are well-separated.     

Twentieth century precipitation trends in the upper Mzingwane sub-catchment of the northern Limpopo basin,Zimbabwe

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - This study evaluates precipitation trends in the upper Mzingwane sub-catchment (UMS) of Zimbabwe using ten World Meteorological Organization (WMO)’s...     

Resilience and brittleness in the ALERTA RIO system: a field study about the decision-making of forecasters

Natural disasters, particularly those triggered by heavy rainfall, may cause major damage and death. However, if an accurate early warning is issued, the damage can be mitigated. In Latin America and Brazil, characteristics of socioeconomic development often lead to a disorderly growth of cities and, consequently, occupation and irregular construction in risk areas. Therefore, forecasts of heavy rainfall, as well as preventative and mitigatory actions based on meteorological data/alerts, are essential to saving lives and minimizing material loss. An event that would have benefited from such actions is that which occurred in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro in January 2011, when over 800 people lost their lives. This work describes the first research initiative on resilience engineering domain in systems to forecast heavy rains in Rio de Janeiro. The results indicate important sources of brittleness in the system that supports the work of meteorologists, mainly related to the technical and organizational framework, and suggests that the main source of resilience in dealing with critical situations is the tacit knowledge of experts.     

Towards bridging the gap between climate change projections and maize producers in South Africa

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Multi-decadal regional projections of future climate change are introduced into a linear statistical model in order to produce an ensemble of austral...     

Examining the impact of multiple climate forcings on simulated Southern Hemisphere climate variability

Climate Dynamics - The study examines the influence of external climate forcings, and atmosphere–ocean–sea–ice coupled interaction on the Southern Hemisphere (SH) atmospheric...     

The self-organizing map,a new approach to apprehend the Madden–Julian Oscillation influence on the intraseasonal variability of rainfall in the southern African region

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the major mode of intraseasonal variability (30–60 days) in the tropics, having large rainfall impacts globally, and possibly on southern Africa. However, the latter impact is not well understood and needs to be further explored. The life cycle of the MJO, known to be asymmetric, has been nevertheless analyzed usually through methods constrained by both linearity and orthogonality, such as empirical orthogonal function analysis. Here we explore a non-linear classification method, the self-organizing map (SOM), a type of artificial neural network used to produce a low-dimensional representation of high-dimensional datasets, to capture more accurately the life cycle of the MJO and its global impacts. The classification is applied on intraseasonal anomalies of outgoing longwave radiation within the tropical region over the 1980–2009 period. Using the SOM to describe the MJO is a new approach, complimentary to the usual real-time multivariate MJO index. It efficiently captures this propagative phenomenon and its seasonality, and is shown to provide additional temporal and spatial information on MJO activity. For each node, the subtropical convection is analyzed, with a particular focus on the southern Africa region. Results show that the convection activity over the central tropical Indian Ocean is a key factor influencing the intraseasonal convective activity over the southern African region. Enhanced (suppressed) convection over the central Indian Ocean tends to suppress (enhance) convection over the southern African region with a 10-day lag by modulating the moisture transport.     

Attributes of cut-off low induced rainfall over the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa

Cut-off low (COL) weather systems that are associated with rainfall over the Eastern Cape are considered in this study. COLs are objectively identified and tracked over a 31-year period. Daily rainfall data of 22 evenly distributed stations over the Eastern Cape are utilized. Only COLs with a minimum spatial distribution, defined as more than a third of the rainfall stations that need to report rainfall on at least 1 day of a COL event, are considered for analysis of rainfall attributes. These attributes include the occurrence of COL rain days of different magnitudes, the distribution of the depth and temperature of the COL centres for the rain days of different magnitudes, the associated spatial distribution of rainfall as well as the associated atmospheric circulation. The frequency of COLs over the Eastern Cape has a winter maximum and a summer minimum. COL rain days of small, medium and large magnitudes occur most frequently during the winter, while small- and medium-magnitude COL rain days experience peaks in autumn and spring, respectively. The low-level flow, and in particular the position of the low/trough, seems to be the determinant factor in the occurrence, magnitude and spatial extent of COL-induced rainfall.