Compounding effects of human activities and climatic changes on surface water availability in Iran

Climatic Change - By combining long-term ground-based data on water withdrawal with climate model projections, this study quantifies the compounding effects of human activities and climate change...     

Prediction of scour depth at piers with debris accumulation effects using linear genetic programming

Abstract

Exact evaluation of scour depth around piers under debris accumulation is crucial for the safe design of pier structures. Experimental studies on scouring around pier bridges with debris accumulation have been conducted to estimate the maximum scour depth using various empirical relationships. However, due to the oversimplification of a complex process, the proposed relationships have not always been able to accurately predict the pier scour depth. This research proposes linear genetic programming (LGP) approach as an extension of the genetic programming to predict the scour depth around bridge piers. Among the artificial intelligence techniques, LGP and locally weighted linear regression (LWLR) models have not been used to predict the scour depth at bridge piers. Literature experimental data were collected and used to develop the models. The performance of the LGP method was compared with gene-expression programming, LWLR, multilinear regression and empirical equations using rigorous statistical criteria. The correlation coefficient (R) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were (R?=?0.962, RMSE =0.31) and (R?=?0.885, RMSE =0.542) for the LGP and LWLR, respectively. The results demonstrated the superiority of the LGP method for increasing the accuracy of the predicted scour depth in comparison with the other models.     

Development of a new wavelet-based hybrid model to forecast multi-scalar SPEI drought index (case study: Zanjan city,Iran)

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Drought forecasting plays a vital role in managing drought and reducing its effects on agricultural systems and water resources. In the present study, three...     

Crack patterns in clayey soils: Experiments and modeling

The paper presents an experimental and numerical study to investigate the behavior of desiccated clayey soils. The performed tests permit to evaluate the crack pattern as well as the tensile strength as a function of suction. A new model that relates the porosity evolution to the suction and to the tensile strength was developed and implemented in the finite element program CODE_BRIGHT. The proposed model captured the initiation and propagation of cracks in a thin layer of desiccated clay and predicted crack patterns in terms of the Minkowski densities (i.e. average crack length and crack intensity factor). The effect of the heterogeneity of the tested specimens, modeled by random clusters, was also quantified. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial variation assessment of groundwater quality using multivariate statistical analysis(Case Study: Fasa Plain,Iran)

Groundwater is considered as one of the most important sources for water supply in Iran. The Fasa Plain in Fars Province, Southern Iran is one of the major areas of wheat production using groundwater for irrigation. A large population also uses local groundwater for drinking purposes. Therefore, in this study, this plain was selected to assess the spatial variability of groundwater quality and also to identify main parameters affecting the water quality using multivariate statistical techniques such as Cluster Analysis (CA), Discriminant Analysis (DA), and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Water quality data was monitored at 22 different wells, for five years (2009-2014) with 10 water quality parameters. By using cluster analysis, the sampling wells were grouped into two clusters with distinct water qualities at different locations. The Lasso Discriminant Analysis (LDA) technique was used to assess the spatial variability of water quality. Based on the results, all of the variables except sodium absorption ratio (SAR) are effective in the LDA model with all variables affording 92.80% correct assignation to discriminate between the clusters from the primary 10 variables. Principal component (PC) analysis and factor analysis reduced the complex data matrix into two main components, accounting for more than 95.93% of the total variance. The first PC contained the parameters of TH, Ca²⁺, and Mg²⁺. Therefore, the first dominant factor was hardness. In the second PC, Cl^-, SAR, and Na⁺ were the dominant parameters, which may indicate salinity. The originally acquired factors illustrate natural (existence of geological formations) and anthropogenic (improper disposal of domestic and agricultural wastes) factors which affect the groundwater quality.     

Contrasting Pliocene fluvial depositional systems within the rapidly subsiding South Caspian Basin; a case study of the palaeo-Volga and palaeo-Kura river systems in the Surakhany Suite,Upper Productive Series,onshore Azerbaijan

The South Caspian Basin contains major hydrocarbon reservoirs within the largely Early Pliocene Productive Series. This paper describes and contrasts outcrops of the uppermost ∼500 m of the series (the Surakhany Suite) deposited by two of the main fluvial systems that supplied the Azeri margin of the basin. Sedimentary facies and, for the first time from the Productive Series, palynological analyses document fluvial channel belt complexes, sheetflood overbank and flood plain to flood plain lake environments. The Productive Series on the Apsheron Peninsula, Azerbaijan, was supplied predominantly from the north by the palaeo-Volga river system. It displays an overall fining-upward trend, such that the Surakhany Suite at Lokbatan is dominated by mudstone. Siltstone and coarser-grained sediments make up 28% of the section. Channel bodies are on average 1.5 m thick and form 13% of the succession. In the sub-surface of the Apsheron Peninsula, ratty wireline log responses also indicate that siltstone and sandstone bodies are predominantly thin bedded, with SP-derived net-to-gross sand ratios of ∼0.35–0.40. The succession in the Kura Basin was sourced predominantly from the west by the palaeo-Kura river system. It displays a coarsening-upward trend, such that in the middle and upper Surakhany Suite at Babazanan siltstone and coarser sediments make up 52% of the section. It is characterised by numerous stacked and laterally continuous channel sandstone bodies that are on average 5.8 m thick and comprise 42% of the outcrop. In the sub-surface of the Kura Basin, wireline log responses of the Surakhany Suite have a blocky character and indicate SP-derived net-to-gross sand ratios of 0.26–0.38. These values are similar to calculated sandstone volumes at outcrop (44%). The palynological data, including multivariate analyses, show that the main controls on palynomorph distribution are the degree of fluvial or lacustrine influence, subaerial exposure and salinity. Despite their more lithic nature, Surakhany Suite sandstones derived from the palaeo-Kura river system along the Kurovdag-Babazanan-Neftchala trend have similar or better petrophysical properties than those derived from the palaeo-Volga river on the Apsheron Peninsula and its offshore continuation. This is probably due to their coarser-grain size. This, combined with their greater sandstone body thickness, would suggest that the axis of the Kura Basin forms the most promising part of the Azeri sector of the South Caspian Basin for exploration within the uppermost part of the Productive Series.