The palaeolimnology of Lake Fidler, a meromictic lake in south-west Tasmania and the significance of recent human impact

Three meromictic lakes in the World Heritage Area of south-west Tasmania possess unusual microbiological communities. Their meromixis is maintained by periodic incursions of brackish water from the nearby Gordon River which, in its lower reaches, is a salt-wedge estuary. In 1977 the construction of a dam in the middle reaches of the river restricted penetration of the salt-wedge and meromixis rapidly declined in all three lakes. A palaeolimnological study was carried out on one of the lakes, Lake Fidler, firstly to determine the history of meromixis and its associated microbiological communities, and secondly to assess whether the recent and rapid decline of meromixis is inconsistent with natural rates of development of the Gordon River meromictic lakes. One part of this study included the analysis of the stratigraphy of fossil diatoms from a 17-metre sediment core dating back 8000 yrs. Detrended Correspondence Analysis and Analog Matching were used to compare diatom species assemblages in core samples with diatom samples from a reference dataset consisting of a selection of lake and river sites in the lower Gordon River valley. Five distinct stratigraphic zones were identified in the core. These zones indicated specific stages in the development of the Gordon River lakes from river backwaters to ectogenically-maintained meromictic lakes which will, finally, become terrestrialised by encroaching rainforest. The onset of a stratified water column was identified by the emergence of a dominant freshwater algal flora which suggested that the lake had developed a mixolimnion and become meromictic ca. 2070 ± 50 ¹⁴C yrs ago. In the context of this long history of meromixis, the rapid demise in meromictic stability following construction of the dam is judged to be inconsistent with natural rates of development. The palaeolimnological studies, of which this paper is one part, prompt recommendations for a management strategy to prevent the further decay of these meromictic lakes in the World Heritage Area.     

Structural variations in derivatives of the bacteriochlorophylls of Chlorobiaceae: impact of stratigraphic resolution on depth profiles as revealed by methanolysis

Bacteriochlorophylls c and d, recovered from two sedimentary sequences, were converted to bacteriophaeophorbide methyl esters by methanolysis and analysed by atmospheric pressure chemical ionisation liquid chromatography-multistage mass spectrometry (APCI LC-MSⁿ). The distributions in both settings, a moderately consolidated sediment from Kirisjes Pond, Antarctica, and in a finely laminated microbial mat from Les Salines de la Trinitat, Spain, show significant variations within a narrow depth interval. The overall bacteriophaeophorbide c to d ratios in the two sediments are different, as are the ratios of particular C-3¹ diastereoisomers, indicating distinct differences between the bacterial communities that contributed to each sediment. Furthermore, a shift towards more extensive alkylation in homologues within each sediment is consistent either with changing environmental conditions in the depositional environments, or development-related changes in the structure of the bacterial community, leading to increased competition for light or nutrients.     

Multi-scale variability of beach profiles at Duck: A wavelet analysis

Beach profiles have been observed to change over a range of spatial and temporal scales; however techniques for quantifying this variability have not been fully established. In this paper, a wavelet technique is introduced as a method to study the multi-scale variability of beach profiles. The beach profile data comprising a 22-year time series surveyed at the US Army Corps of Civil Engineers Field Research Facility (FRF) at Duck are analysed using the adapted maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (AMODWT). The analysis successfully identifies strong local features in the variability of beach profiles in time and space separately that cannot be isolated by traditional statistical methods. The analysis of spatial wavelet variances provides a new means of investigating the depth of closure. Analysis of variances by temporal scales shows that the combined effects of several temporal scales with one or two dominant scales can be seen at particular points across profiles whilst the dominant temporal scales are different at different portions of the profiles. The method allows for the extremely nonstationary behaviour of beach profile to be analysed into separate frequency bands that can facilitate the interpretation of morphological changes in terms of physical processes.     

Probabilistic modelling of long-term beach evolution near segmented shore-parallel breakwaters

This paper presents a new framework for probabilistic modelling of long-term beach evolution in the vicinity of detached breakwaters. The study focuses on the key physical processes contributing to beach variability over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Based on a one-line model, the framework is enhanced with sophisticated solutions for beach-wave-structure interaction, diffraction together with a treatment of varying tide level. The sediment transport rate is calibrated at regional and local levels using data from bespoke field campaigns and site-specific coefficients are proposed. Monte Carlo simulation is conducted for long-term shoreline simulation under a sequence of time varying sequence of waves, currents and tidal levels. The results of the Monte Carlo simulation give an insight into the statistical characteristics of beach behaviour within the defence system. In particular, regions within the scheme that are relatively stable and those that exhibit greater natural fluctuations are identified.     

A simplified model for lateral response of large diameter caisson foundations—Linear elastic formulation

The transient response of large embedded foundation elements of length-to-diameter aspect ratio D/B=2–6 is characterized by a complex stress distribution at the pier–soil interface that cannot be adequately represented by means of existing models for shallow foundations or flexible piles. On the other hand, while three-dimensional (3D) numerical solutions are feasible, they are infrequently employed in practice due to their associated cost and effort. Prompted by the scarcity of simplified models for design in current practice, we here develop an analytical model that accounts for the multitude of soil resistance mechanisms mobilized at their base and circumference, while retaining the advantages of simplified methodologies for the design of non-critical facilities. The characteristics of soil resistance mechanisms and corresponding complex spring functions are developed on the basis of finite element simulations, by equating the stiffness matrix terms and/or overall numerically computed response to the analytical expressions derived by means of the proposed Winkler model. Sensitivity analyses are performed for the optimization of the truncated numerical domain size, the optimal finite element size and the far-field dynamic boundary conditions to avoid spurious wave reflections. Numerical simulations of the transient system response to vertically propagating shear waves are next successfully compared to the analytically predicted response. Finally, the applicability of the method is assessed for soil profiles with depth-varying properties. The formulation of frequency-dependent complex spring functions including material damping is also described, while extension of the methodology to account for nonlinear soil behavior and soil–foundation interface separation is described in the conclusion and is being currently investigated.     

Statistical analysis and forecasts of long-term sandbank evolution at Great Yarmouth, UK

A data-driven model has been developed to analyse the long-term evolution of a sandbank system and to make ensemble predictions in a period of 8 years. The method uses a combination of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, (to define spatial and temporal patterns of variability), jack-knife resampling, (to generate an ensemble of EOFs), a causal auto-regression technique, (to extrapolate the temporal eigenfunctions), and straightforward statistical analysis of the resulting ensemble of predictions to determine a ‘forecast’ and associated uncertainty. The methodology has been applied to a very demanding site which includes a curved shoreline and a group of mobile nearshore sandbanks. The site is on the eastern coast of the UK and includes the Great Yarmouth sandbanks and neighbouring shoreline. A sequence of 33 high quality historical survey charts reaching back to 1848 have been used to analyse the patterns and to predict morphological evolution of the sandbank system. The forecasts demonstrate an improved skill relative to an assumption of persistence, but suffer in locations where there are propagating features in the morphology that are not well-described by EOFs.     

Automated threshold selection methods for extreme wave analysis

The study of the extreme values of a variable such as wave height is very important in flood risk assessment and coastal design. Often values above a sufficiently large threshold can be modelled using the Generalized Pareto Distribution, the parameters of which are estimated using maximum likelihood. There are several popular empirical techniques for choosing a suitable threshold, but these require the subjective interpretation of plots by the user.In this paper we present a pragmatic automated, simple and computationally inexpensive threshold selection method based on the distribution of the difference of parameter estimates when the threshold is changed, and apply it to a published rainfall and a new wave height data set. We assess the effect of the uncertainty associated with our threshold selection technique on return level estimation by using the bootstrap procedure. We illustrate the effectiveness of our methodology by a simulation study and compare it with the approach used in the JOINSEA software. In addition, we present an extension that allows the threshold selected to depend on the value of a covariate such as the cosine of wave direction.     

Late Holocene changes in ultraviolet radiation penetration recorded in an East Antarctic lake

Late Holocene changes in the ultraviolet radiation (UVR) penetration in a lake in the Larsemann Hills (East Antarctica) were reconstructed using sediment core proxies based on fossil pigments (scytonemins and its derivatives) and siliceous microfossils. The influence of changes in lake depth on the UVR proxy was excluded by applying a correction, based on the non-linear relation between modern scytonemin concentrations and lake depth in a regional reference data set, and the record of past lake depths inferred using a diatom based transfer function in the sediment core. Results showed four well-defined maxima in the UVR proxy during the last 1600–1800 years, centred around 1820–1780, 1580–1490, 790–580 and 680–440 AD. Several mechanisms may account for these observed changes in UVR penetration, including past variability in cloud cover, atmospheric turbidity, ozone column depth, snow cover on the lake ice, DOM concentrations and lake-ice thickness and transparency resulting from temperature fluctuations. Although some gaps remain in our knowledge of scytonemin production in relation to the limnology of Antarctic lakes, the results highlight the importance and potential of the sediments in these highly transparent water bodies as archives of changes in past UVR receipt at the Earth’s surface.