Species and plant community reorganization in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt under climate change conditions

This study analyzes six vegetation communities in relation to current climatic parameters and eight climate change scenarios along an elevation gradient extending from 2,710 m to 4,210m in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. The projected movements of 25 plant species with the current restricted or wide altitudinal distributions were also modeled. To relate climatic parameters to the species and communities, a Precipitation/Temperature(P/T)index was used both for the current and the different climate-change scenarios. The temperatures are expected to increase by 1.1°C to 1.7°C by 2020 and by2°C to 3°C by 2050. A decrease of 4% to 13% in the annual precipitation is expected for the 2020 horizon,and a reduction between 3% and 20% is expected for2050. The reductions in water availability were projected for all altitude levels and plant communities.The most marked reduction was under the HADLEYA2 scenario, in which the lower limit of the altitudinal range increased from 2,710 to 3,310 m(2050 horizon)with reductions in the P/T index between 36% and39% compared to the current climate. Most plant species tended to shift their distribution from 200 to300 m upward in the 2020 temporal horizon scenarios. The Pinus hartwegii, Alnus jorullensis and Pinus montezumae communities would have a shorter altitudinal range as they move upward and merge with the remaining species at the higher altitudinal range. For the 2050 temporal horizon,30% of the species, primarily those from the higher altitudinal range, would disappear because their P/Tindex values would be above the limit of plant survival(4,210 m).     

Metals in tidal flats colonized by microbial mats within a South-American estuary (Argentina)

In this study, we measured the concentrations of metals (Cd, Cu, Pb, Ni, Cr, Zn, Hg, Mn, and Fe) and assessed the characteristics of tidal flats (grain size and organic matter content) in sediments and their overlying microbial mats fractions to evaluate the anthropogenic impact within the Bahía Blanca Estuary (BBE). Puerto Rosales (PR) and Almirante Brown (AB), located in the middle and inner zone of the estuary, respectively, were used as sampling sites. Sediments were composed mainly of silt–clay in AB, whereas first fine-grained particles were coarser in depth in PR. Regarding the concentration of metals in both fractions, we found differences between sites: There were higher concentrations of overall metals in AB relative to PR. In addition, higher concentrations of Cu were recorded in the first centimeters of AB tidal flats, whereas higher concentration of Cd were recorded in microbial mats of PR. Considering that the grain size was similar between sites, these results are consistent with the high concentration of organic matter found in AB, probably because this site is close to a former municipal dump and sewage discharges. Also, the higher Cd content found in PR site would highlight both the influence of untreated urban discharges and port anthropogenic activities. In conclusion, this study allowed identifying high values of some metals in the presence of microbial mats in the BBE, thus suggesting a possible interaction between both, at least for metals like Cu or Cd.     

Light curve morphology study of UW CrB – evidence for a 5 d superorbital period

Since its discovery in 1990, UW CrB (also known as MS1603+2600) has remained a peculiar source without firm classification. Our current understanding is that it is an accretion disc corona (ADC) low-mass X-ray binary. In this paper, we present results from our photometric campaign dedicated to studying the changing morphology of the optical light curves. We find that the optical light curves show remarkable evidence for strongly evolving light curve shapes. In addition, we find that these changes show a modulation at a period of ∼5 d. We interpret these changes as either due to strong periodic accretion disc warping or due to other geometrical changes because of disc precession at a period of 5 d. Finally, we have detected 11 new optical bursts, the phase distribution of which supports the idea of a vertically extended asymmetric accretion disc.     

Risk identification and perception in the fisheries sector: Comparisons between the Faroes,Greece, Iceland and UK

This paper presents the findings of risk identification and risk perception research conducted in relation to the fisheries systems of four distinct and diverse European countries: Faroes, Iceland, Greece and the UK. Risk research traditionally attempts to quantify the potential threat or consequences from a range of risk events or hazards. This research, however, adopted a social sciences perspective and so assumed that a risk event or hazard can mean different things to different people and that these perceptions are also context and culturally dependent. Risk perceptions were examined and risk registers developed in each country for a range of stakeholder groups. A ‘mental modelling’ approach was adopted in a series of qualitative interviews. Findings were examined in terms of a wide range of psychological, social and cultural risk theories. Differences in risk perceptions were noted between stakeholder groups and countries and contextual influences were examined such as the widely differing fisheries management systems used in each country. This research provides one of the first attempts to systematically evaluate risks and perceptions across a range of fisheries-systems. The findings support social science theories which argue that risk is a subjective, as opposed to objective, concept and that this subjectivity will therefore affect our attempts to assess and manage those hazards we think we can potentially influence or control.     

Post-solidification cooling and the age of Io's lava flows

The modeling of thermal emission from active lava flows must account for the cooling of the lava after solidification. Models of lava cooling applied to data collected by the Galileo spacecraft have, until now, not taken this into consideration. This is a flaw as lava flows on Io are thought to be relatively thin with a range in thickness from ∼1 to 13 m. Once a flow is completely solidified (a rapid process on a geological time scale), the surface cools faster than the surface of a partially molten flow. Cooling via the base of the lava flow is also important and accelerates the solidification of the flow compared to the rate for the ‘semi-infinite’ approximation (which is only valid for very deep lava bodies). We introduce a new model which incorporates the solidification and basal cooling features. This model gives a superior reproduction of the cooling of the 1997 Pillan lava flows on Io observed by the Galileo spacecraft. We also use the new model to determine what observations are necessary to constrain lava emplacement style at Loki Patera. Flows exhibit different cooling profiles from that expected from a lava lake. We model cooling with a finite-element code and make quantitative predictions for the behavior of lava flows and other lava bodies that can be tested against observations both on Io and Earth. For example, a 10-m-thick ultramafic flow, like those emplaced at Pillan Patera in 1997, solidifies in ∼450 days (at which point the surface temperature has cooled to ∼280 K) and takes another 390 days to cool to 249 K. Observations over a sufficient period of time reveal divergent cooling trends for different lava bodies [examples: lava flows and lava lakes have different cooling trends after the flow has solidified (flows cool faster)]. Thin flows solidify and cool faster than flows of greater thickness. The model can therefore be used as a diagnostic tool for constraining possible emplacement mechanisms and compositions of bodies of lava in remote-sensing data.     

Similarities between Circular Polarization in Galactic Jet Sources and AGN

We compare the observational properties of the circular polarization in Galactic jet sources with that observed in AGN, and outline the constraints they place on the mechanism responsible for the circular polarization. We also discuss the implications of the time scale of polarization variations on the mechanism responsible for the circular polarization.     

Experimental study on the bidirectional inelastic deformation capacity of U‐shaped steel dampers for seismic isolated buildings

Hysteretic dampers are used to dissipate earthquake‐induced energy in base‐isolated structures by acquiring inelastic deformations, rendering their hysteretic behavior of vital importance. The present paper focuses on investigating the behavior of U‐shaped steel dampers under bidirectional loading; this is significantly different from their corresponding uniaxial behavior. Two main sets of loading tests on full‐scale specimens are conducted in this regard: (i) quasi‐static tests with simple histories and (ii) dynamic tests with realistic loading histories. Based on the results obtained in the quasi‐static tests, an interaction curve that accounts for the reduction of the cyclic deformation capacity is proposed. However, the fidelity of this relation must be assessed under loading conditions similar to those of a seismically isolated structure subjected to an earthquake, which represents the goal of the second set of tests. The results of the dynamic tests validate the proposed interaction curve for estimating the deformation capacity of U‐shaped steel dampers under bidirectional loading. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Socioeconomic vulnerability and electric power restoration timelines in Florida: the case of Hurricane Irma

Large-scale damage to the power infrastructure from hurricanes and high-wind events can have devastating ripple effects on infrastructure, the broader economy, households, communities, and regions. Using Hurricane Irma’s impact on Florida as a case study, we examined: (1) differences in electric power outages and restoration rates between urban and rural counties; (2) the duration of electric power outages in counties exposed to tropical storm force winds versus hurricane Category 1 force winds; and (3) the relationship between the duration of power outage and socioeconomic vulnerability. We used power outage data for the period September 9, 2017–September 29, 2017. At the peak of the power outages following Hurricane Irma, over 36% of all accounts in Florida were without electricity. We found that the rural counties, predominantly served by rural electric cooperatives and municipally owned utilities, experienced longer power outages and much slower and uneven restoration times. Results of three spatial lag models show that large percentages of customers served by rural electric cooperatives and municipally owned utilities were a strong predictor of the duration of extended power outages. There was also a strong positive association across all three models between power outage duration and urban/rural county designation. Finally, there is positive spatial dependence between power outages and several social vulnerability indicators. Three socioeconomic variables found to be statistically significant highlight three different aspects of vulnerability to power outages: minority groups, population with sensory, physical and mental disability, and economic vulnerability expressed as unemployment rate. The findings from our study have broader planning and policy relevance beyond our case study area, and highlight the need for additional research to deepen our understanding of how power restoration after hurricanes contributes to and is impacted by the socioeconomic vulnerabilities of communities.     

New observations and transit solutions of the inflated exoplanets HAT-P-40b and HAT-P-51b

We present high-precision photometric observations of the transiting exoplanets HAT-P-40 b and HAT-P-51 b by the Rozhen 2-m telescope.The newly-observed transit of HAT-P-40 b is the first one with a complete curve.The orbital periods of the two targets were improved.We modeled the observed transits and found bigger stellar radii than those derived from the stellar models.The planet radii of HATP-40 b and HAT-P-51 b obtained from our transit solutions are bigger than the values calculated by the empirical relations for Jupiter-mass and Saturn-mass planets respectively.Their values reveal the highlyinflated nature of the two targets,especially that of HAT-P-51 b.We established that the best transit solutions correspond to a quadratic limb-darkening law.The fitted limb-darkening coefficients of HAT-P-40 are close to the theoretical ones while those of HAT-P-51 are a little different.The precise astrometric Gaia distances of the two targets are smaller by 6%–7%than the calculated values from the stellar models.We propose the Gaia distances to be used for improvement of the stellar models as well as for more reliable calculation of the parameters of the known exoplanets.     

NSVS 2569022:a peculiar binary among W UMa stars with extremely small mass ratios

Photometric observations of the W UMa binary NSVS 2569022 are presented. The light curve solution reveals that both components are of F spectral type(temperatures T_1= T_2= 6100 K). NSVS2569022 undergoes a total eclipse of W subtype and the mass ratio is well-determined. Its extremely small value of only 0.077 implies that the target will probably experience instability and a possible merger. This value ranks NSVS 2569022 in sixth place among binaries with the smallest mass ratio.Based on an empirical relation of "period – total mass" for low mass-ratio binaries, we estimate the global parameters of NSVS 2569022: masses M_1= 1.17 M⊙and M_2= 0.09 M⊙; radii R_1= 1.19 R⊙and R_2= 0.38 R⊙; luminosities L_1= 1.73 L⊙and L_2= 0.17 L⊙. An analysis of the characteristics of binaries with extremely low-mass ratios is made. NSVS 2569022 turns out to be a peculiar binary among W UMa stars with extremely small mass ratios due to its unexpectedly small fill-out factor of only 0.014(slightly overcontact configuration).