What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?

Sea levels of different atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level (ζ) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a ζ projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of ζ change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and ζ. The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the ζ change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic ζ change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific.

     

Morphological evolution of a barchan dune migrating past an offshore wind farm foundation

As the number of manmade structures installed on the seafloor is increasing rapidly, we seek to understand the impact of these immobile obstacles on marine geomorphological processes, such as the evolution of bedforms. A 5.8 m diameter monopile foundation was installed at the case study offshore windfarm approximately 30 m ahead of an approaching barchan (crescent-shaped) dune. The impact of the monopile on the dune's evolution was analysed using six multibeam bathymetry surveys spanning 20 years. To substantiate this analysis, coupled three-dimensional numerical modelling of flows and sediment was conducted in which the scour inducing bed shear stresses were calculated from the modelled turbulent kinetic energy. Following the installation of the monopile, the mid-section of the dune accelerated and stretched in the direction of the wake of the monopile. Four years after the monopile's installation the rest of the dune had caught up, flattening out the slip face within half the dune's length downstream of the monopile. Due to the modified flow field, the dune was scoured deeply at the base of the monopile to a depth of 6.8 m (supported by the model results that predicted a scour depth exceeding 2 m over a period of just a few days). The surveyed volume of material scoured amounted to 8% of the total dune volume. Whilst the process of scouring occurs at a timescale of days to weeks, the dune migrated on average by 25 m/yr. The difference in the timescale of the two processes allowed the scouring to occur through the full thickness of the dune. The scoured dune profile recovered rapidly once the dune migrated downstream of the monopile. This article demonstrates how large geomorphological features can intercept and migrate past a monopile foundation without long-lasting impacts on the integrity of the feature or the foundation. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.