The performances of various dynamical models from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC) Climate Center(APCC) multi-model ensemble(MME) in predicting station-scale rainfall in South China(SC) in June were evaluated.It was found that the MME mean of model hindcasts can skillfully predict the June rainfall anomaly averaged over the SC domain.This could be related to the MME's ability in capturing the observed linkages between SC rainfall and atmospheric large-scale circulation anomalies in the Indo-Pacific region.Further assessment of station-scale June rainfall prediction based on direct model output(DMO) over 97 stations in SC revealed that the MME mean outperforms each individual model.However,poor prediction abilities in some in-land and southeastern SC stations are apparent in the MME mean and in a number of models.In order to improve the performance at those stations with poor DMO prediction skill,a station-based statistical downscaling scheme was constructed and applied to the individual and MME mean hindcast runs.For several models,this scheme can outperform DMO at more than 30 stations,because it can tap into the abilities of the models in capturing the anomalous Indo-Paciric circulation to which SC rainfall is considerably sensitive.Therefore,enhanced rainfall prediction abilities in these models should make them more useful for disaster preparedness and mitigation purposes. 相似文献
By using 40-year NCEP reanalysis daily data (1958-1997), we have analyzed the climatic
characteristics of summer monsoon onset in the South China Sea (105°E ~ 120°E, 5°N ~ 20°N, to be simplified
as SCS in the text followed) pentad by pentad (5 days). According to our new definition, in the monsoon area of
the SCS two of the following conditions should be satisfied: 1) At 850hPa, the southwest winds should be greater
than 2m/s. 2) At 850 hPa, θse should be greater than 335°K. The new definition means that the summer
monsoon is the southwest winds with high temperature and high moisture. The onset of the SCS summer monsoon
is defined to start when one half of the SCS area (105°E ~ 120°E,5°N ~ 20°N) is controlled by the summer
monsoon. The analyzed results revealed the following: 1) The summer monsoon in the SCS starts to build up abruptly
in the 4th pentad in May. 2) The summer monsoon onset in the SCS is resulted from the development and
intensification of southwesterly monsoon in the Bay of Bengal. 3) The onset of the summer monsoon and
establishment of the summer monsoon rainfall season in the SCS occur simultaneously. 4) During the summer
monsoon onset in the SCS, troughs deepen and widen quickly in the lower troposphere of the India; the
subtropical high in the Western Pacific moves eastward off the SCS in the middle troposphere; the easterly
advances northward over the SCS in the upper troposphere. 相似文献
This paper presents a preliminary assessment of the hydrogeological characteristics of a karst mountainous catchment, the Suoi Muoi River catchment, in the northwest of Vietnam. The catchment is located at 600 -700 m a.s.l. and covers an area of 284 km. Exposed limestone occupies 32% of the total catchment area. Various types of assessments have been carried out, including geological and hydrogeological field surveys, cave surveys, dye-tracer tests, meteorological and surface water monitoring. Geological studies and cave surveys have identified the most important active cave/conduit systems within the catchment. Although these data are essential, they are insufficient to make a comprehensive appraisal of the hydrologic nature of the catchment under interest. An attempt was made to calculate a global water balance of the catchment, based on short-term (15 months) meteorological and streamflow records. The results show that, despite the existence of a number of substantial cavem conduit systems, the groun 相似文献
Summer monsoonal rainfall over East Asia is dominated by precipitation associated with the East Asian summer monsoonal front (EASMF). A Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5.1) with a high horizontal resolution of 50 km is employed in this study to investigate the interannual variability as well as projected future trends in the EASMF under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Seasonal march of the EASMF is reproduced reasonably well in the model’s present-day simulation despite a northward shift of the simulated front from its observed position. Based upon a suite of objectively-defined daily indices of the EASMF, we show that the EASMF in the late twenty-first century will be more intense and displaced eastward and southward from its present-day mean location. Moreover, EASMF events will exhibit a wider meridional expansion and a longer duration. Monsoonal precipitation over East Asia is particularly sensitive to the meridional displacements of EASMF. In conjunction with the projected southward shift of EASMF, an enhanced rain band is seen to extend northeastward from southern China to the northwestern Pacific south of Japan. This precipitation feature is associated with strengthened and southward-shifted westerly jet streams at 250 and 700 hPa, which are respectively linked to tropical warming in the upper troposphere and warming over the South China Sea in the lower troposphere during the twenty-first century. Within the latitudinal “gap” south of the upper-level jet and north of the lower-level jet, the local vorticity tendencies are maintained by upper-level divergence and lower-level convergence, thus accompanied by enhanced upward motion and precipitation. The site at which this “jet stream-precipitation” relationship prevails is notably modulated by long-term trends in the temperature and circulation patterns associated with climate change.