Methods of fitting the Fisher-Tippett type 1 extreme value distribution

Methods are described for estimating the parameters of the Fisher-Tippet Type 1 extreme value distribution and associated return values from measured extremes, such as maximum wave height. A comparison of these methods, with simulated data, shows that those using Gumbel's plotting position are least satifactory. Maximum likelihood methods give the smallest mean square errors, but the very much simpler method of moments is nearly as good.     

Sea-level, sediment supply and coastal changes: Examples from the coast of Ireland

Sediment supply and pre-existing shoreline morphology are crucial factors in controlling coastal changes due to sea-level rise. Using examples from both southeast and northeast Ireland, it can be shown that sea-level change may trigger a sequence of events which leads to both static and dynamic shoreline equilibrium. Cliff erosion and longshore sediment movement in east Co. Wexford has led to injection of sediment onto the shelf, and the growth, under both wave and tide regimes, of linear offshore shoals. These shoals now control the pattern of shoreline erosion and provide a template for possible stepwise evolution of the coast under any future sea-level rise. In contrast, the nearby coast of south Co. Wexford comprises a series of coarse clastic barriers moving monotonously onshore, via overwash processes. Here the behavior of the barrier is conditioned by the antecedent morphology of both the beach face and stream outlet bedforms. Finally, the rock platform coast of Co. Antrim presents a far more resistant shoreline to incident marine processes, yet even here there is strong evidence of present process control over so-called ‘raised’ platforms and embayments. It is concluded that coastal sediment supply and dynamics, together with coastal morphology and its interaction with waves, present a far more complex variety of sea-level indicators than is normally acknowledged.     

The abyssal bounty fan and lower Bounty Channel: evolution of a rifted-margin sedimentary system

The Bounty Channel and Fan system provides the basis for a model for deep-sea channel and fan development in a rifted continental margin setting. The sedimentary system results from an interplay between tectonics (fan location; sediment source), turbidity currents (sediment supply), geostrophic currents (sediment reworking and distribution) and climate (sea level, and hence sediment supply and type). Today, sediment is shed from the collisional Southern Alps, part of the Pacific/Indo-Australian plate margin, and passes east across the adjacent shelf and into the Otago Fan complex at the head of the Bounty Trough. Paths of sediment supply, and locations of sediment deposition, are controlled by the bathymetry of the Bounty Trough, with axial slopes as high as 37 m/km (2°) towards the trough head, diminishing to around 3.5 m/km (0.2°) along the trough axis. The Bounty Fan is located 800 km further east, where the Bounty Channel debouches onto abyssal oceanic crust at the mouth of the Bounty Trough. The Bounty Fan comprises a basement controlled fan-channel complex with high leveed banks exhibiting fields of mud waves, and a northward-elongated middle fan. Channel-axis gradients diminish from 6 m/km (0.35°) or more on the upper fan to less than 1 m/km (<0.06°) on the lower fan. Parts of the left bank levee and almost the entire middle fan are being eroded and re-entrained within a Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC), which passes along the eastern New Zealand margin at depths below 2000 m. The DWBC is the prime source of deep, cold water flow into the Pacific Ocean, with a volume of ca. 20 Sv and velocities up to 4 cm/s or greater. The mouth of the Bounty Channel, at a depth of 4950 m at the south end of the middle fan, acts as a point source for an abyssal sediment drift entrained northward under the DWBC at depths below 4300 m. The Bounty Fan probably originated in the early to middle Neogene, but has mostly been built during the last 3 Myr (Plio-Pleistocene), predominantly as climate-controlled sedimentary couplets of terrigenous, micaceous mud (acoustically reflective; glacial) and biopelagic ooze (acoustically transparent; interglacial), deposited under the pervasive influence of the DWBC.     

Patterns and controls of surface sediment distribution: west-central Florida inner shelf

The west-central Florida inner shelf represents a transition between the quartz-dominated barrier-island system and the carbonate-dominated mid-outer shelf. Surface sediments exhibit a complex distribution pattern that can be attributed to multiple sediment sources and the ineffectiveness of physical processes for large-scale sediment redistribution. The west Florida shelf is the submerged extension of the Florida carbonate platform, consisting of a limestone karst surface veneered with a thin unconsolidated sediment cover. A total of 498 surface sediment samples were collected on the inner shelf and analyzed for texture and composition. Results show that sediment consists of a combination of fine quartz sand and coarse, biogenic carbonate sand and gravel, with variable but subordinate amounts of black, phosphorite-rich sand. The carbonate component consists primarily of molluskan fragments. The distribution is patchy and discontinuous with no discernible pattern, and the transition between sediment types is generally abrupt. Quartz-rich sediment dominates the inner 15 km north of the entrance into Tampa Bay, but south of the Bay is common only along the inner 3 km. Elsewhere, carbonate-rich sediment is the predominate sediment type, except where there is little sediment cover, in which cases black, phosphorite-rich sand dominates. Sediment sources are likely within, or around the periphery of the basin. Fine quartz sand is likely reworked from coastal units deposited during Pleistocene sea-level high stands. Carbonate sand and gravel is produced by marine organisms within the depositional basin. The black, phosphorite-rich sand likely originates from the bioerosion and reworking of the underlying strata that irregularly crop out within the study area. The distribution pattern contains elements of both storm- and tide-dominated siliciclastic shelves, but it is dictated primarily by the sediment source, similar to some carbonate systems. Other systems with similar sediment attributes include cool-water carbonate, sediment-starved, and mixed carbonate/siliciclastic systems. This study suggests a possible genetic link among the three systems.     

Ethnicity as a cause of migration in Eastern Europe

Migration within and from Eastern Europe has recently risen as a topic of significance on the European political agenda. One aspect of this complex migration matrix relates to ethnic unrest. This paper examines the scale and spatial ramifications of this movement on a part of the continent recently freed from communist rule.An attempt is made to divide the ethnic quilt of Eastern Europe into those countries with few such problems and those with many. It is possible then to define areas of active migration (hot spots) from those of potential migration (inflammable spots) based on predictions from the current situation.Active ethnic migration results from the present political/military instability in the western Balkans, where refugees have left for other parts of Europe to escape the present Croat-Serb-Muslim conflict. War escalation could encourage potential ethnic migration from Kosovo, the Sandzak and Vojvodina regions,and Macedonia within the former Yugoslavia. Future disquiet elsewhere could stimulate ethnic groups such as the Turks in Bulgaria,and the Hungarian minorities in Slovakia and Romania to join this migration movement scenario.