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Резюме С помощью принятия простых кинематических предположений и на основании ω—уравнения выла определена конфигурация полос облаков
в полностью окклюдированном циклоне без фронтов. Облачная система определяется полем скрытой теплоты, выделяемой в процессах
конденсации. Полосы облаков теоретически представляют собой в основном листы синусоидальной спирали.
Address: Boční II, Praha 4-Spořilov. 相似文献
Address: Boční II, Praha 4-Spořilov. 相似文献
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Martina?S?tteleEmail author Michael?Krautblatter Michael?Bründl Daniel?Straub 《Landslides》2016,13(4):737-750
Warning systems are increasingly applied to reduce damage caused by different magnitudes of rockslides and rockfalls. In an integrated risk-management approach, the optimal risk mitigation strategy is identified by comparing the achieved effectiveness and cost; estimating the reliability of the warning system is the basis for such considerations. Here, we calculate the reliability and effectiveness of the warning system installed in Preonzo prior to a major rockfall in May 2012. “Reliability” is defined as the ability of the warning system to forecast the hazard event and to prevent damage. To be cost-effective, the warning system should forecast an event with a limited number of false alarms to avoid unnecessary costs for intervention measures. The analysis shows that to be reliable, warning systems should be designed as fail-safe constructions. They should incorporate components with low failure probabilities, high redundancy, have low warning thresholds, and additional control systems. In addition, the experts operating the warning system should have limited risk tolerance. In an additional hypothetical probabilistic analysis, we investigate the effect of the risk attitude of the decision makers and of the number of sensors on the probability of detecting the event and initiating a timely evacuation, as well as on the related intervention cost. The analysis demonstrates that quantitative assessments can support the identification of optimal warning system designs and decision criteria. 相似文献
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Glacial lake outburst floods(GLOFs)represent one of the most serious hazard and risk in deglaciating high mountain regions worldwide and the need for GLOF hazard and risk assessment is apparent.As a consequence,numerous region-and nation-wide GLOF assessment studies have been published recently.These studies cover large areas and consider hundreds to thousands of lakes,prioritizing the hazard posed by them.Clearly,certain simplification is required for executing such studies,often resulting in neglecting qualitative characteristics which would need manual assignment.Different lake dam types(e.g.,bedrock-dammed,moraine-dammed)are often not distinguished,despite they control GLOF mechanism(dam overtopping/dam breach)and thus GLOF magnitude.In this study,we explore the potential of easily measurable quantitative characteristics and four ratios to approximate the lake dam type.Our dataset of 851 lakes of the Cordillera Blanca suggests that while variances and means of these characteristics of individual lake types differ significantly(F-test,t-test),value distribution of different geometrical properties can’t be used for the originally proposed purpose along the spectra.The only promising results are obtained for extreme values(selected bins)of the ratios.For instance,the low width to length ratio indicates likely morainedammed lake while the high value of ratio indicating round-shape of the lake indicates increased likelihood of bedrock-dammed lake.Overall,we report a negative result of our experiment since there are negligible differences of relative frequencies in most of the bins along the spectra. 相似文献
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A constitutive model for mechanical and chemo‐mechanical compaction in sedimentary basins and finite element analysis
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Compaction and associated fluid flow are fundamental processes in sedimentary basin deformation. Purely mechanical compaction originates mainly from pore fluid expulsion and rearrangement of solid particles during burial, while chemo‐mechanical compaction results from Intergranular Pressure‐Solution (IPS) and represents a major mechanism of deformation in sedimentary basins during diagenesis. The aim of the present contribution is to provide a comprehensive 3D framework for constitutive and numerical modeling of purely mechanical and chemo‐mechanical compaction in sedimentary basins. Extending the concepts that have been previously proposed for the modeling of purely mechanical compaction in finite poroplasticity, deformation by IPS is addressed herein by means of additional viscoplastic terms in the state equations of the porous material. The finite element model integrates the poroplastic and poroviscoplastic components of deformation at large strains. The corresponding implementation allows for numerical simulation of sediments accretion/erosion periods by progressive activation/deactivation of the gravity forces within a fictitious closed material system. Validation of the numerical approach is assessed by means of comparison with closed‐form solutions derived in the context of a simplified compaction model. The last part of the paper presents the results of numerical basin simulation performed in one dimensional setting, demonstrating the ability of the modeling to capture the main features in elastoplastic and viscoplastic compaction. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Temporal and bathymetric resolution of nautiloid death assemblages in stratigraphically condensed oozes (New Caledonia)
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Cephalopod shells can be affected by postmortem transport and biostratigraphic condensation, but direct estimates of the temporal and spatial resolutions of cephalopod assemblages are missing. Amino acid racemisation calibrated by 14C demonstrates a centennial‐scale time averaging (<500 years) of Nautilus macromphalus in sediment‐starved, epi‐ and mesobathyal pelagic environments. The few shells that are thousands of years old are highly degraded. The median occurrence of dead shells is at 445 m depth, close to the 300–400 m depth where living N. macromphalus are most abundant. Therefore, dead shells of this species accumulate at a centennial temporal resolution and with excellent bathymetric fidelity. Dead Nautilus shells exist for only a few hundred years on the seafloor, in contrast to the biostratigraphically condensed mixture of extant foraminifers and foraminifers that went extinct during the Pleistocene. Cephalopod shells that do not show any signs of early diagenetic cementation are unlikely to be biostratigraphically condensed. 相似文献
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Emil M. Apostolov Vojtěch Letfus Reviewer J. Pýcha 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1989,33(4):379-390
Summary The time variations of the amplitudes and phases of the semi-annual variation in geomagnetic activity, characterized by the linear planetary index aa, have been analysed for the period 1868–1985. The results provide qualitative confirmation of Murayama's conclusions [13] about the systematic f phase in dependence on the changes in the level of solar activity and give support to Russel-McPherron's mechanism [16] concerning the effect of the predominant polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field. A distinctly expressed variation of the phase differences in the course of the sunspot cycle and of the 22-year cycle, and specific variations related to the sequence of four consecutive cycles have been established, as well as a well-defined 90-year period, all of them as a reflection of analogous variations in solar activity. The variations of the phase differences observed around the equinoxes can be explained by the combined effect of the mechanisms of the axial and equinoctial hypothesis. It is assumed that a displacement of the maxima of the semi-annual variation to dates after the equinoxes will be observed in the ascending parts and a reverse displacement towards the equinoxes and earlier dates in the desccending parts of the following sunspot cycles 22 nad 23.On leave from the Geophysical Institute of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Akad. G. Bonchev Str. bl. 3, Sofia 1113, Bulgaria. 相似文献