Climate change forecasting in a mountainous data scarce watershed using CMIP5 models under representative concentration pathways

Hydrology cycle of river basins and available water resources in arid and semi-arid regions are highly affected by climate changes. In recent years, the increment of temperature due to excessive increased emission of greenhouse gases has led to an abnormality in the climate system of the earth. The main objective of this study is to survey the future climate changes in one of the biggest mountainous watersheds in northeast of Iran (i.e., Kashafrood). In this research, by considering the precipitation and temperature as two important climatic parameters in watersheds, 14 models evolved in the general circulation models (GCMs) of the newest generation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were used to forecast the future climate changes in the study area. For the historical period of 1992–2005, four evaluation criteria including Nash–Sutcliffe (NS), percent of bias (PBIAS), coefficient of determination (R ²) and the ratio of the root-mean-square-error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR) were used to compare the simulated observed data for assessing goodness-of-fit of the models. In the primary results, four climate models namely GFDL-ESM2G, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC-ESM, and NorESM1-M were selected among the abovementioned 14 models due to their more prediction accuracies to the investigated evaluation criteria. Thereafter, climate changes of the future periods (near-century, 2006–2037; mid-century, 2037–2070; and late-century, 2070–2100) were investigated and compared by four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of new emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. In order to assess the trend of annual and seasonal changes of climatic components, Mann–Kendall non-parametric test (MK) was also employed. The results of Mann–Kendall test revealed that the precipitation has significant variable trends of both positive and negative alterations. Furthermore, the mean, maximum, and minimum temperature values had significant positive trends at 90, 99, and 99.9 % confidence level. On the other hand, in all parts of the Kashafrood Watershed (KW), the average temperature of watershed will be increased up to 0.56–3.3 °C and the mean precipitation will be decreased up to 10.7 % by the end of the twenty-first century comparing to the historical baselines. Also, in seasonal scale, the maximum and minimum precipitations will occur in spring and summer, respectively, and the mean temperature is higher than the historical baseline in all seasons. The maximum and minimum values of the mean temperature will occur in summer and winter, respectively, and the amount of seasonal precipitation in these seasons will be reduced.

     

Variability of Airborne Dust Fallout and Associated Trace Metals around Industrial Sites in Esfahan,Iran

The seasonal and spatial variability of airborne dust deposits and associated trace metals such as Pb, Co, Ni, Cd, Mn in 15 sites surrounding a heavily industrialized region in south Esfahan (central Iran) are investigated. Total deposit rates (TDR) of dusts and trace metals are analyzed, contamination factor (CF) and pollution load index (PLI) are also calculated. Furthermore, correlation and cluster analysis are performed to identify the source of the pollution. The highest dust-TDR (15.97 g m⁻² per season), the highest concentration of trace metals, CF and PLI are recorded in summer because of the lack of precipitation, high temperature, and drought conditions in this season. Pb and Cd show the highest CF values. In the towns near the two major steel mills in the region (i.e., Esfahan Steel Company and Mobarekeh Steel Complex), the CF values for Pb and Cd are about 13 and 12, respectively (i.e., 13 and 12 times higher than the pre-industrial values, respectively). The spatial distribution maps of the dust deposit rate, dust-borne trace metals, and the obtained PLI of the trace metals in the study area reveal that the two major industries in the region are the main sources of dust and trace metal distribution.