Effect of spatial variation characteristics on contouring of design storm depth

The ordinary kriging method, a geostatistical interpolation technique, was applied for developing contour maps of design storm depth in northern Taiwan using intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) data. Results of variogram modelling on design storm depths indicate that the design storms can be categorized into two distinct storm types: (i) storms of short duration and high spatial variation and (ii) storms of long duration and less spatial variation. For storms of the first category, the influence range of rainfall depth decreases when the recurrence interval increases, owing to the increasing degree of their spatial independence. However, for storms of the second category, the influence range of rainfall depth does not change significantly and has an average of approximately 72 km. For very extreme events, such as events of short duration and long recurrence interval, we do not recommend usage of the established design storm contours, because most of the interstation distances exceed the influence ranges. Our study concludes that the influence range of the design storm depth is dependent on the design duration and recurrence interval and is a key factor in developing design storm contours. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nature minéralogique et rôle nutritionnel des argiles de sols céréaliers en région subhumide à semi-aride (Tunisie)

The cereal soils of the Northwest of Tunisia derive most of the time, from alluvial deposits or altered remains of carbonated and clayey rocks. Extraction of the clayey fraction permitted to reveal the presence of the following clayey minerals: kaolinite, illite, smectite, chlorite, as well as an illite–smectite interstratified layer, which is present in the deep horizons of the vertisol and in the isohumic soil. The presence of such types of clays shows that the evolution mechanism of soils is weathering of primary minerals inherited from the sedimentary rocks of the Northwest of Tunisia. These clays ensure to soils most of their cationic exchange capacity. Thanks to these clays, which have Ca⁺⁺, Mg⁺⁺ and K⁺ as exchangeable cations, the chemical fertility of these soils is ensured. It may be improved by increasing contents of organic matter, which is naturally few abundant in these soils. To cite this article: H. Ben Hassine, C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

The political ecology of Prunus africana in Cameroon

This paper provides an analysis of some current trends in political ecology and then illustrates the intermingling of politics and ecology using a case study of the exploitation and conservation of Prunus africana in Cameroon. It argues that political ecology is still a lively field, but that some recent attempts to chart a way forward for this perspective risk shifting it away from its liminal position in relation to natural and social science by being disinclined to engage with ecological processes. The case study draws attention to the strengths and shortcomings in existing attempts to weave political and economic analysis into environmental debates over the sustainable management of this tree species, which has been incorporated into phytomedical markets in Europe. The fortunes of the tree reflect its botany and ecology as well as the trajectories of the local economy, intercontinental markets for alternative health products, the policies and practices of the Cameroonian state and the politics of international aid.     

Preliminary data on chemical changes in the Aral Sea during low-level periods from the last 9000 years

The withdrawal of the Aral Sea tributaries (Amu and Syr Daria) for cultures has led to significant falls of its level and an important increase in its salinity. During the Holocene, a succession of low and high water inputs occurred. Silty deposits correspond to the high levels and carbonates to the low levels. This study makes a distinction between the Syr Daria and the Amu Daria water inputs during low-level periods by using mineralogical and chemical compositions of the carbonates deposits. Waters from the Syr Daria are more sulphatic and have a low iron content in comparison with that of the Amu Daria. The Syr Daria was the major tributary around 7500, 4956 and 970 yr?BP, whereas around 6200 and 3610 yr?BP, inflow also from the Amu Daria is observed. To cite this article: L. Le Callonnec et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Geology and Lead–Sulphur Isotope Compositions of the Tongyu Volcanic-Hosted Massive Sulphide Copper Deposit in the Western Part of the North Qinling Orogen, China

The Tongyu copper deposit, located in the western part of the North Qinling Orogen, China, is one of several volcanic-hosted massive sulphide(VHMS) deposits with industrial value and is also a typical example of mineralization related to the subduction and metallogenesis during the Caledonian orogeny. We conducted systematic lead-sulphur isotope geochemical analyses of the Tongyu deposit to understand the possible ore-forming material sources and tectonic settings. Twenty-six sulphide samples yielded clustered δ~(34)S_(CDT) values of 1.13‰-3.36‰, average 2.22‰, and show a tower-type distribution,implying that the sulphur of the Tongyu copper deposit mainly originated from a mantle source. The Pb isotope compositions of sulphides(~(206)Pb/~(204)Pb = 17.59225-18.56354, average 18.32020; ~(207)Pb/~(204)Pb =15.51770-15.69381, average 15.66217; ~(208)Pb/~(204)Pb= 37.99969-39.06953, average 38.52722) are close to the values of the volcanic host rocks(~(206)Pb/~(204)Pb= 18.10678-18.26293, average 18.21158; ~(207)Pb/~(204)Pb =15.63196-15.68188, average 15.65345; ~(208)Pb/~(204)Pb= 38.43676-38.56360, average 38.49171), thus consistent with the Pb in ores and volcanic host rocks having been derived from a common source that was island-arc Pb related to oceanic crust subduction. The northward subduction of the Palaeo-Qinling oceanic crust triggered dehydration of the slab, which generated a large amount of high-oxygen-fugacity aqueous hydrothermal fluid. The fluid rose into the mantle wedge, activated and extracted metallogenic material and promoted partial melting of the mantle wedge. The magma and ore-forming fluid welled up and precipitated, finally forming the Tongyu VHMS copper deposit.     

一次梅雨锋结构及锋区强度对锋面结构影响的数值模拟

利用中尺度模式MM5对1999年6月下旬发生在长江中下游地区的一次锋上西南低涡发展的梅雨锋暴雨过程进行了研究。通过敏感性试验, 探讨了低涡对锋强、 锋生的敏感性, 锋生、 锋消与低涡发展演变的时间空间上的联系等问题\.结果表明, 低涡对中层锋面强度的变化敏感, 中层锋强发生改变会导致整层涡度发生同位相的变化。中层系统对梅雨锋气旋的发展起主要作用, 中层锋面对低涡发展的影响比边界层锋更关键。中层锋面强度改变会激发出中低层的垂直次级环流, 低层的辐合上升运动发生改变, 最终影响到低涡强度的发展。敏感性试验证明, 锋面强度变化对低涡发展造成的影响有超前性, 中层锋面先发生变化, 6 h左右以后低涡强度发生改变。锋区强度和低涡强度发生变化的地理位置基本在同一经度上, 锋强变化的位置在涡强变化位置的北面。     

一次强降水过程涡旋状MCS结构特征及成因初步分析

利用新一代天气雷达资料分析了造成2011年6月18日湖北省江汉平原强降水涡旋状中尺度对流系统(MCS)发生发展过程的结构特征,联合常规观测、地面加密观测及雷达四维变分风场反演资料初步研究了MCS可能成因。结果表明:(1)成熟阶段的强降水涡旋状MCS回波表现为气旋性弯曲的多条螺旋对流回波带、周围被大片层状云回波所包裹的结构特征,后期因冷空气侵入演变出冷暖锋式结构。回波合并和旋转式列车效应是产生强降水的主要运动特征。(2)涡旋状MCS是在有利环境场下,主要由鄂西山地一江汉平原过渡带边界层中尺度涡旋系统强烈发展组织的结果。(3)中尺度涡旋系统形成发展与地面暖倒槽发展、西南低涡前侧降水和特殊地形作用有密切关系,来自不同方向气流形成的强烈辐合是其前期形成发展的主要机制,后期发展可能与潜热释放有关,涡旋环流向上发展到700 hPa。     

A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments

Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty.     

Effects of Enclosure on Plant and Soil Nutrients in Different Types of Alpine Grassland

Enclosure is one of the most widely used management tools for degraded alpine grassland on the northern Tibetan Plateau, but the responses of different types of grassland to enclosure may vary, and research on these responses can provide a scientific basis for improving ecological conservation. This study took one site for each of three grassland types (alpine meadow, alpine steppe and alpine desert) on the northern Tibetan Plateau as examples, and explored the effects of enclosure on plant and soil nutrients by comparing differences in plant community biomass, leaf-soil nutrient content and their stoichiometry between samples from inside and outside the fence. The results showed that enclosure can significantly increase all aboveground biomass in these three grassland types, but it only increased the 10-20 cm underground biomass in the alpine desert. Enclosure also significantly increased the leaf nutrient content of the dominant plants and contents of total nitrogen (N), total potassium (K), and organic carbon (C) in 10-20 cm soil in alpine desert, thus changing the stoichiometry between C, N and P (phosphorus). However, enclosure significantly increased only the N content of dominant plant leaves in alpine steppe, while other nutrients and stoichiometries of both plant leaves and soil did not show significant differences in alpine meadow and alpine steppe. These results suggested that enclosure has differential effects on these three types of alpine grasslands on the northern Tibetan Plateau, and the alpine desert showed the most active ecological conservation in the responses of its soil and plant nutrients.