The ‘ultimate objective’ of the framework convention on climate change requires a new approach in climate change research

In the Framework Convention on Climate Change an ultimate objective is formulated that calls for stabilization of the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that would allow ecosystems to adapt naturally, safeguard food supply and enable sustainable development to proceed in a sustainable manner. This paper addresses the possible contribution of science to translate this rather vague and ambiguous objective into more practicable terms. We propose a regionalized, risk-based six-step approach that couples an analysis of ecosystem vulnerability to the results of simulations of climate change. An ultimate objective level could be determined in terms of stabilized concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The level and timing of this stabilization would be determined by a political appreciation of associated risks for managed and unmanaged ecosystems. These risks would be assessed by region in an internationally coordinated scientific effort, followed by a global synthesis.     

The role of bathymetry and directional wave conditions on observed crescentic bar dynamics

Nearshore sandbars are important features in the surf zone of many beaches because they strongly influence the mean circulation and evolving morphology. Due to variations in wave conditions, sandbars can experience cross-shore migration and vary in shape from alongshore uniform (shore-parallel) to alongshore rhythmic (crescentic). Sandbar dynamics have been studied extensively, but existing observational studies usually do not quantify the processes leading to crescentic bar formation and straightening. This study analyses the dynamics of crescentic bar events at the fetch-limited beach of Castelldefels (northwestern Mediterranean Sea, Spain) using 7.5 years of hourly time-exposure video images and detailed wave conditions. The results show that, despite the generally calm wave conditions, the sandbars were very dynamic in the cross-shore and longshore directions. They often migrated rapidly offshore during storms (up to 70 m in one day) and more slowly onshore during post-storm conditions. Crescentic bars were often present at the study site (48% of the time), but only when the sandbar was at least 10 m from the shoreline. They displayed a large variability in wavelengths (100–700 m), alongshore migration speeds (0–50 m/day) and cross-shore amplitudes (5–20 m). Wavelengths increased for larger bar–shoreline distances and the alongshore migration speeds were strongly correlated with the alongshore component of the radiation stresses. Crescentic patterns typically developed during low–medium energetic waves with limited obliquity ( $\theta \lesssim 20$° at 10 m depth), while bar straightening occurred during medium–high energetic waves with strong oblique angles of incidence ( $\theta \gtrsim 15$°). Overall, this study provides further proof for the important role of wave direction in crescentic bar dynamics and highlights the strong dependence of crescentic bar development on the initial bathymetric configuration.     

Non-linear channel–shoal dynamics in long tidal embayments

The dynamics of finite-amplitude bed forms in a tidal channel is studied with the use of an idealized morphodynamic model. The latter is based on depth-averaged equations for the tidal flow over a sandy bottom. The model considers phenomena on spatial scales of the order of the tidal excursion length. Transport of sediment mainly takes place as suspended load. The reference state of this model is characterized by a spatially uniform M₂ tidal current over a fixed horizontal bed. The temporal evolution of deviations from this reference state is governed by amplitude equations: these are a set of non-linear equations that describe the temporal evolution of bed forms. These equations are used to obtain new morphodynamic equilibria which may be either static or time-periodic. Several of these bottom profiles show strong similarity with the tidal bars that are observed in natural estuaries. The dependence of the equilibrium solutions on the value of bottom friction and channel width is investigated systematically. For narrow channels (width small compared to the tidal excursion length) stable static equilibria exist if bottom friction is slightly larger than r_cr. For channel widths more comparable to the tidal excursion length, multiple stable steady states may exist for bottom friction parameter values below r_cr. Regardless of channel width, stable time-periodic equilibria seem to emerge as the bottom friction is increased.Responsible Editor: Jens Kappenberg     

A model for grain-size sorting over tidal sand ridges

A model was developed and analyzed to quantify the effect of graded sediment on the formation of tidal sand ridges. Field data reveal coarse (fine) sediment at the crests (in the troughs), but often phase shifts between the mean grain-size distribution and the bottom topography occur. Following earlier work, this study is based on a linear stability analysis of a basic state with respect to small bottom perturbations. The basic state describes an alongshore tidal current on a coastal shelf. Sediment is transported as bed load and dynamic hiding effects are accounted for. A one-layer model for the bed evolution is used and two grain size classes (fine and coarse sand) are considered. Results indicate an increase in growth and migration rates of tidal sand ridges for a bimodal mixture, whilst the wavelength of the ridges remains unchanged. A symmetrical externally forced tidal current results in a grain-size distribution which is in phase with the ridges. Incorporation of an additional external M₄ tidal constituent or a steady current results in a phase shift between the grain-size distribution and ridge topography. These results show a general agreement with observations. The physical mechanism responsible for the observed grain-size distribution over the ridges is also discussed.Responsible Editor: Jens Kappenberg     

Phylogeography of the pelagic fish Seriola lalandi at different scales: confirmation of inter-ocean population structure and evaluation of southern African genetic diversity

The study investigated the global and regional phylogeography of the yellowtail kingfish Seriola lalandi by examining genetic diversity and population genetic structure of this species at inter-and intra-ocean level and on a regional scale. DNA fragments of two mitochondrial genes, cytochrome b (Cytb) and cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) and one nuclear gene, recombination activating gene 1 (RAG1), were sequenced to investigate the global-scale phylogeography of this species. The population genetic structure within the South Pacific, as well as along the South African coastline, was examined further using six microsatellite markers. Three distinct clades were identified for S. lalandi, which correspond with previously described subspecies of the North-East Pacific, North-West Pacific and the Southern Hemisphere. Within the latter, additional divergence was observed between the South Pacific and the South-East Atlantic regions. Divergence estimates were indicative of a Pacific origin for S. lalandi populations, because of Pleistocene vicariant events. Microsatellite analyses revealed overall significant genetic differentiation between South African and South Pacific samples. This corroborates recent findings on the global phylogeography of the species. No population differentiation was observed within South Africa, indicating high levels of gene flow.     

Ice resistance measurements in ridges with IB APU in the Baltic sea

Ice ridges form a difficult obstacle for ice navigation. Despite this fact, the resistance of ships in ridges has been investigated very little.A trial was performed with the Finnish icebreaker APU (propulsion machinery power of 8·8 MW) in April 1974 in the Baltic, in order to measure its resistance in ridges.Most of the 11 ridges were so massive that the ship could not penetrate through them by a continuous mode, the ramming mode had to be used.When the ship was penetrating a ridge, its speed and the propeller revolutions were registered for determining the resistance. A doppler radar was used for measuring ship spped.In case the ship was stopped in the ridge it was extracted, reversed and accelerated for the next ram. The time history was registered for determining the ship's speed of advance.Before starting a test, the ridge profile above the water level was measured. This was simply done by using a levelling instrument.The main object of the test was to determine the ship's speed of advance. The results, i.e. ice resistance, ship speed and ridge characteristics were analysed on three levels: momentary values average values for rams and average values for a series of rams in one ridge.The test series presented in the article was the first one in full scale in which the speed of the advance of a ship moving by ramming was determined and the ridge profiles were mapped. The measuring system developed worked well. As results the tests gave data of the ship's resistance and of the ship's speed of advance in ridges.     

Europe adapts to climate change: Comparing National Adaptation Strategies

For the last two decades, European climate policy has focused almost exclusively on mitigation of climate change. It was only well after the turn of the century, with impacts of climate change increasingly being observed, that adaptation was added to the policy agenda and EU Member States started to develop National Adaptation Strategies (NASs). This paper reviews seven National Adaptation Strategies that were either formally adopted or under development by Member States at the end of 2008. The strategies are analysed under the following six themes. Firstly, the factors motivating and facilitating the development of a national adaptation strategy. Secondly, the scientific and technical support needed for the development and implementation of such a strategy. Thirdly, the role of the strategy in information, communication and awareness-raising of the adaptation issue. Fourthly, new or existing forms of multi-level governance to implement the proposed actions. Fifthly, how the strategy addresses integration and coordination with other policy domains. Finally, how the strategy suggests the implementation and how the strategy is evaluated. The paper notes that the role of National Adaptation Strategies in the wider governance of adaptation differs between countries but clearly benchmarks a new political commitment to adaptation at national policy levels. However, we also find that in most cases approaches for implementing and evaluating the strategies are yet to be defined. The paper concludes that even though the strategies show great resemblance in terms of topics, methods and approaches, there are many institutional challenges, including multi-level governance and policy integration issues, which can act as considerable barriers in future policy implementation.