Statistical properties of aftershock rate decay: Implications for the assessment of continuing activity

Aftershock rates seem to follow a power law decay, but the assessment of the aftershock frequency immediately after an earthquake, as well as during the evolution of a seismic excitation remains a demand for the imminent seismic hazard. The purpose of this work is to study the temporal distribution of triggered earthquakes in short time scales following a strong event, and thus a multiple seismic sequence was chosen for this purpose. Statistical models are applied to the 1981 Corinth Gulf sequence, comprising three strong (M = 6.7, M = 6.5, and M = 6.3) events between 24 February and 4 March. The non-homogeneous Poisson process outperforms the simple Poisson process in order to model the aftershock sequence, whereas the Weibull process is more appropriate to capture the features of the short-term behavior, but not the most proper for describing the seismicity in long term. The aftershock data defines a smooth curve of the declining rate and a long-tail theoretical model is more appropriate to fit the data than a rapidly declining exponential function, as supported by the quantitative results derived from the survival function. An autoregressive model is also applied to the seismic sequence, shedding more light on the stationarity of the time series.     

The Role of Planetary Boundary-Layer Parameterizations in the Air Quality of an Urban Area with Complex Topography

The effect of different planetary boundary-layer (PBL) parameterization schemes on the spatial distribution of atmospheric pollution over the complex topography of the greater Athens area is investigated. Four PBL schemes originally implemented in a numerical meteorological model and a fifth one simulating the urban effect are examined. Two different atmospheric conditions are analyzed; a typical summer and a typical winter pollution episode. The relative importance of chemical and physical processes of the pollution predictions is discussed using process analysis. It is revealed that, for primary pollutants, a local scheme seems more adequate to represent the maximum observed concentrations while, completely different in structure, a non-local scheme reproduces the mean observed values in the basin. Concerning secondary pollutants, peak concentration differences, due to the different PBL schemes, are smoothed out. Nevertheless, the PBL scheme selection shapes the horizontal and the vertical extension of maximum values. The non-local and semi non-local schemes are superior to the others, favouring strong vertical mixing and transport towards the surface. The stronger turbulence accommodated effectively by the semi non-local urban scheme enhances ozone production along the sea-breeze axis and preserves the high ozone concentrations during the nighttime hours in the urban core.     

A Comparison Between Modelled and Measured Mixing-Layer Height Over Munich

An attempt is made to correlate the mixing heights, derived from ceilometer and Sodar measurements, to those simulated by different atmospheric boundary-layer parameterization schemes. The comparison is performed at two sites (one suburban and one rural) close to Munich, Germany for two spring and two winter days. It is found that, under convective conditions, the mixing height determined, by both Sodar and ceilometer, corresponds to the middle or the top of the entrainment zone, respectively, as calculated from the eddy-viscosity profiles. Under stable conditions, the measured mixing height is related to the height where eddy viscosities attain their minimum values (Sodar) or to the height of residual mechanical turbulence (ceilometer). During a foehn case with weak turbulence, the measured mixing height from both Sodar and ceilometer is better inferred by considering the eddy-viscosity profiles during daytime and the height of the low-level jet during nighttime.     

Linked turbidite–debrite resulting from recent Sahara Slide headwall reactivation

The northwest African margin has been affected by numerous large-scale landslides during the late Quaternary. This study focuses on a recent collapse of the Sahara Slide headwall and characterises the resulting flow deposit. Core and seismic data from the base of the upper headwall reveal the presence of blocky slide debris, comprising heavily deformed hemipelagic slope sediments. The blocky slide debris spilled over a lower headwall 60 km downslope and formed a thick transparent debris flow unit. Cores recovered 200–250 km farther downslope contain a surficial turbidite that is interpreted to be linked to the headwall collapse event based on timing and composition. One core located approximately 200 km from the headwall scar (C13) contains debrite encased in turbidite. The debrite comprises sheared and contorted hemipelagic mudstone clasts similar as those seen in the vicinity of the Sahara Slide headwall, and lacks matrix. This debrite pinches out laterally within 25 km of C13, whereas the accompanying turbidite can be correlated across 700 km of the northwest African margin. The linked turbidite–debrite bed is interpreted to have formed through recent failure of the steep Sahara Slide headwall that either 1) generated both a debris flow and a turbidity current almost simultaneously, or 2) generated a debris flow which with entrainment of water and progressive dilution led to formation of an accompanying turbidity current.     

Assessment of freely available DSMs for automatic karst feature detection

The purpose of this work is to present the detection and qualification of natural karst depressions in southern Ksiromero, SW Aitoloakarnania Prefecture, Western Greece, by the use of freely available digital surface model (DSM) data in line with the geographical information systems—GIS. The study area is a part of the Ionian geotectonic zone whose geological background consists of the Triassic evaporates and Triassic carbonate breccias. The after-Triassic carbonate series, which consist of the Jurassic limestones, the Cretaceous limestones and the Eocene limestones, are also presented in the study area. Several DSMs such as ASTER GDEM, SRTM DEM, ALOS Global DSM, and a DSM generated from Sentinel-1 data were evaluated so as to be used for the automatic karst detection. Furthermore, a karst detection procedure applied on DSMs was performed with the aid of analogue and digital air photos. Additionally, the aforementioned procedure was applied also on DEM with the aid of digitized contours referring to topographic maps characterized by a scale of 1/50,000. All the detected features have been also validated via in situ observations. Finally, all DSMs presented herein are characterized by similar percentage of success in terms of automatic karst detection, regardless their spatial resolution and height accuracy. Their rate varies from 66 to 73%.     

A Comparative Study and Evaluation of Mixing-Height Estimation Based on Sodar-RASS, Ceilometer Data and Numerical Model Simulations

The unmanned aerial system SUMO (Small Unmanned Meteorological Observer) has been used for the observation of the structure and behaviour of the atmospheric boundary layer above the Advent Valley, Svalbard during a two-week period in early spring 2009. Temperature, humidity and wind profiles measured by the SUMO system have been compared with measurements of a small tethered balloon system that was operated simultaneously. It is shown that both systems complement each other. Above 200?m, the SUMO system outperforms the tethered balloon in terms of flexibility and the ability to penetrate strong inversion layers of the Arctic boundary layer. Below that level, the tethered balloon system provides atmospheric profiles with higher accuracy, mainly due to its ability to operate at very low vertical velocities. For the observational period, a numerical mesoscale model has been run at high resolution and evaluated with SUMO profiles reaching up to a height of 1500?m above the ground. The sensitivity to the choice of atmospheric boundary-layer schemes and horizontal resolution has been investigated. A new scheme especially suited for stable conditions slightly improves the temperature forecast in stable conditions, although all schemes show a warm bias close to the surface and a cold bias above the atmospheric boundary layer. During one cold and cloudless night, the SUMO system could be operated nearly continuously (every 30?C45?minutes). This allowed for a detailed case study addressing the structure and behaviour of the air column within and above Advent Valley and its interaction with the local topography. The SUMO measurements in conjunction with a 10-m meteorological mast enabled the identification of a very stable nocturnal surface layer adjacent to the valley bottom, a stable air column in the valley and a strong inversion layer above the summit height. The results indicate the presence of inertial-gravity waves during the night, a feature not captured by the model.     

The Influence of the City of Athens on the Evolution of the Sea-Breeze Front

In the present study, we examine the dynamics of a sea-breeze front and the urban heat island interacting with the heavily urbanized city of Athens. For this reason, simulations were performed with a modified version of the PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5), whereby urban features are considered, and the model results were compared with surface routine meteorological data. An unrealistic run was also performed, where the city of Athens was replaced by dry cropland and pasture surface, as in the surrounding area. A delay in the sea-breeze front was found during daytime, together with frictional retardation concerning its penetration, as well as inland displacement of the heat island as the air moved over the city of Athens. During nighttime, the wind speed increased over the lower atmosphere in the city centre due to the enhanced urban heat island.     

The surface energy balance and the mixing height in urban areas—activities and recommendations of COST-Action 715

The specific problems of determining and simulating the surface energy balance (SEB) and the mixing height (MH) over urban areas are examined. The SEB and MH are critical components of algorithms and numerical models for the urban boundary layer, though the constituent parts of the SEB and the MH are not routinely measured by national weather services. Parameterisations are thus needed in applications. In this investigation, several recently developed algorithms and models for estimating the SEB and MH were applied to new datasets and assessed. Results are discussed in terms of the need for spatial resolution and the parameters needed to describe the urban atmosphere. Limitations of models are identified and recommendations for further development and observations are given. Having identified gaps in knowledge, key findings from new urban experiments and numerical modelling for the SEB and MH are given. The diurnal cycle for the SEB is significantly different from rural conditions—urban heat storage is needed in urban parameterisations. The urban MH is increased over the rural MH, as shown by several numerical schemes and careful sodar analyses. This work has been carried out within the COST-715 Action “Meteorology applied to urban air pollution problems (1998–2004). COST 715 reached a consensus proposing representatively sited measurements of meteorological parameters and turbulent fluxes above roof-tops, and recognised that such data are needed to improve numerical models of the urban surface processes.     

Provenance and pathways of late Quaternary turbidites in the deep-water Agadir Basin,northwest African margin

A series of individual turbidites, correlated over distances >100 km, are present in the recent fill of the Agadir Basin, offshore northwest Africa. The aim here is to unravel multiple turbidite source areas and flow pathways, and show how turbidite provenance studies contribute to interpretation of flow processes. Agadir Basin turbidites are sourced from four main areas, with the majority originating from the siliciclastic Morocco Shelf; their sand-mud distribution is strongly controlled by flow sediment volume, with relatively low-volume flows dying out within the Agadir Basin and large-volume flows bypassing significant sediment volumes to basins further downslope. Two large-volume volcaniclastic turbidites are attributed to a Canary Islands landslide source, while several small mud-dominated turbidites are interpreted to be locally sourced from hemipelagic-draped seamounts (e.g. Turbidite AB10). Finally, Turbidite AB1 (∼1 ka) is only present in the western Agadir Basin, and is linked to recent “re-activation” of the Sahara Slide headwall. The muddy suspension clouds of three large-volume flows, all linked to large-scale landslides, have covered huge areas of seafloor and flowed along or even slightly upslope for long distances. It is proposed that northeastwards-flowing bottom currents have aided transport of these dilute flow fractions into and across the Agadir Basin.