地震地质灾害空间预警评估定量化方法研究初探

建立“发育度”、“潜势度”、“危险度”、“危害度”等概念来描述地震地质灾害各影响因子、要素及可能的灾害危害程度,进而建立构成地震地质灾害层次分析的概念体系及地震地质灾害空间预警评估模型,将定性评估转化为定量评估进行初步研究。     

Heavy metals pollution on the sediments in lakes Dianchi, Erhai and Poyanghu and historical records

In this paper²¹⁰ Pb and ¹³⁷Cs dating methods were used to determine sedimentation rates of lakes Dianchi, Erhai and Poyanghu, and to establish the time scale of the sediments. Also based on geochemical records in the sediment column, the historical variation in heavy metal content over the past one hundred years was determined. Some element concentration increased rapidly after the 1970s, such as Cu, Zn and Mn in the sediments of northern Lake Dianchi, Cd and Mn in southern Lake Erhai and in the west central parts of Lake Poyanghu, Our investigations indicate that the increase in element concentration is caused by human activities. In order to understand the extent of the effect caused by human activities, we have calculated the flux of Zn, Cd and Mn. Results show that the flux caused by human activities is seven times greater than the natural one and the ratio is about 2 times in Lake Erhai and Lake Poyanghu.     

天津地区小震应力状况

本文测定了天津地区1985—1990.9年间M_L=3.0以下小震的震源参数,共125次。结果表明:地震应力降△σ一般都不高,多数低于1.3Mpa;区域剪切应力和地震应力降均有明显的增高趋势。1989年末开始下降。由P波测定的介质Q值蓟县平均为350,宝坻、宁河、静海为250,天津西稍高。小震平均震源机制主压应力轴由北西9°,向西偏转26°。这些变化,不仅反应本地区应力调整过程,而且是华北区域应力变化过程的局部显示。     

地震液化侧向变形对桩基受力影响及其防治措施

分析地震液化引起地基侧移作用下的受力特性,并在此基础上提出桩基由于场地地基侧移引起震害的防治措施。     

淮南顾桥煤矿新构造运动的证据

新构造运动系指晚新生代以来的构造运动,其在天然地震研究、煤田地质与油气勘探、城市建设等领域均具有重要的意义。以淮南顾桥煤矿为研究区,结合区域构造背景和顾桥煤矿的地震地质条件,利用地震解释中的层拉平技术恢复研究区典型剖面的古构造地貌,厘定了各条断层的时空配置关系;结合13块钻孔岩心样品的ESR和热释光年龄,定量分析了断层的发育年代。结果表明:研究区存在新构造运动,且与地震层拉平构造演化预测结论吻合;研究成果对于顾桥煤矿的设计和安全生产的意义。     

石结构古塔抗震性能研究

砖石古塔是我国古代劳动人们智慧的结晶,是研究古代建筑设计和抗震意识重要的佐证.本文介绍了石结构古塔的抗震历史,通过对古塔的基础、结构设计进行分析,结合脉动测试、爆破监测数据分析古塔的结构特性,并对古塔的抗震性能进行验算,揭示了几百年来古塔抵御强震的奥秘.     

台湾海峡及其两岸的地球动力学环境

本文根据断层的力学性质、活动习性、褶皱、断陷盆地、平原、海湾的形成机理,火山活动、水系分布格局,震源机制解、地壳形变场、ＧＰＳ观测成果和ＥＤＭ（光电测距）资料等,对比研究了台湾海峡及其两岸现今的地球动力学环境。结果表明：台湾海峡处在北西方向引张的应力环境;台湾地区受到来自太平洋菲律宾海板块向北西方向的挤压和因台湾海峡下降而产生的向南东方向的挤压;福建沿海则受到印度板块向北向东的挤压和太平洋菲律宾海板块向北西方向的挤压以及台湾海峡下降而产生的向北西方向的挤压。     

Ionospheric TEC predictions over a local area GPS reference network

Single layer ionosphere models are frequently used for ionospheric modeling and estimation using GPS measurements from a network of GPS reference stations. However, the accuracies of single layer models are inherently constrained by the assumption that the ionospheric electrons are concentrated in a thin shell located at an altitude of about 350 km above Earths surface. This assumption is only an approximation to the physical truth because the electrons are distributed in the entire ionosphere region approximately from 50 to 1,000 km. To provide instantaneous ionospheric corrections for the real-time GPS positioning applications, the ionospheric corrections need to be predicted in advance to eliminate the latency caused by the correction computation. This paper will investigate ionospheric total electron content (TEC) predictions using a multiple-layer tomographic method for ionospheric modeling over a local area GPS reference network. The data analysis focuses on the accuracy evaluation of short-term (5 min in this study) TEC predictions. The results have indicated that the obtainable TEC prediction accuracy is at a level of about 2.8 TECU in the zenith direction and 95% of the total electron content can be recovered using the proposed tomography-based ionosphere model.     

不同季节天气条件下风廓线雷达测风精度分析

采用建瓯风廓线雷达(CFL-06)观测资料,分析不同季节天气条件下风廓线雷达的测风精度,同时还选取了永安风廓线雷达(CFL-03)数据进行了对比分析。结果表明,四个季节在探测高度低于4 km时,获得的对称波束水平风分量差值的平均值很小,且小于0.5m·s~(-1),标准差值也比较一致,且小于10 m·s~(-1),探测精度均较好。当探测高度超过4 km后,春、冬两季对称波束水平风分量差值的平均值和标准差值开始增大,在7.1 km高度平均值和标准差值达到最大,分别为9 m·s~(-1)和28 m·s~(-1),夏、秋两季探测精度高于春、冬两季的。在探测高度低于4 km时,不同季节4种方法计算的垂直速度基本一致,以春季大气最为均匀,其次是冬季的,夏、秋两季的最差。在探测高度超过5 km后,春、冬两季4种方法计算的垂直速度偏差增加较快,最大分别为0.9 m·s~(-1)和1.0 m·s~(-1),夏季4种方法计算的垂直速度偏差较小。夏、冬季水平风向和风速测量精度优于春、秋两季的,秋季测量精度最低,水平风速标准差值在0.0～1.5 m·s~(-1)和水平风向标准差值在0～15°范围内所占比例分别只有51.6%和54.0%。总的来说,风向和风速测量精度普遍不高,需要进一步改进算法,减少计算误差,提高探测性能。