西南地区热灾害链及其与芦山地震的关系

通过对西南地区干旱（森林大火）洪涝（或冰冻）地震灾害链的分析,发现“4·20”芦山地震震前出现了一系列与该灾害链相关的热异常现象,即：川滇地区自2009年以来,先后经历了跨年度干旱,并伴随森林大火,2012年5月中旬局地开始出现暴雨洪涝,还引发大量滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害,2013年初南方多地相继出现大雾、低温、冻害、雪灾,在此期间,川滇地区还发生了一系列4.0~6.0级范围内中强地震,随后于4月20日发生了芦山地震。此外,通过芦山地震考察,发现震前8~6 h内出现喷水冒砂、天气闷热、狗狂吠等宏观异常,地震的同时震中地区出现爆炸、冒烟等现象,这些现象进一步说明芦山地震成因并非断层错动,而是地下热异常积累到一定程度后突然释放。同时,结合西南地区热灾害链结构推测,西南地区近期内仍将有强震发生。     

新疆东天山二红洼岩体岩浆演化特征与成矿潜力分析

二红洼岩体位于康古尔-黄山韧性剪切带东段,主要由含长二辉橄榄岩、橄榄辉长岩、辉长苏长岩和淡色辉长岩组成。岩石相对富集LREE,亏损高场强元素（Nb、Ta、Ti）。岩体原生岩浆为普通拉斑玄武岩（MgO=7.3%）。通过对元素地球化学和Nd、Sr、Pb同位素体系研究证明,岩浆源区以软流圈物质为主,混入了少量富集岩石圈地幔组分,岩浆遭受了约5%上地壳物质的混染。与同岩带典型含矿岩体对比研究表明,岩体在岩石组合、原生岩浆性质、同化混染程度等方面存在显著差异,这些因素可能制约了成矿潜力。     

基于能量原理的阻尼器隔震结构地震响应预测

建立在地震作用下设置阻尼器的基础隔震结构在最大地震响应时刻的能量平衡方程,给出了结构隔震支座和阻尼器的能量表达式,演算了基于能量平衡的设置阻尼器的基础隔震结构的地震响应预测式.选用人工地震波和天然地震波,利用时程分析法的解析值验证了地震响应预测式的精度,比较研究了仅设置粘性阻尼器和同时设置粘性阻尼器和滞回阻尼器的基础隔震结构的抗震性能.研究表明:对于不同的输入地震波,能量法的地震响应预测值包络了多数时程分析的结果,能较好地预测基础隔震结构的地震响应值.在基础隔震结构设计中,建议在隔震层同时设置粘性阻尼器和滞回阻尼器,粘性阻尼器的阻尼比在0.3 ～0.4之间.     

中国城市体系网络化研究

当前,学者普遍认同城市体系研究的重心从等级范式向网络范式转向。在大量的文献梳理基础上,阐述20世纪80年代以来中国城市体系研究范式的转向过程,并进一步梳理中国城市网络研究的进展、问题与关注重点。结果表明：2010年之后,网络成为中国城市体系研究的主流范式,等级体系文献数量呈波动递减趋势,全国和长三角成为热点关注区域;属性数据一定程度上弥补了早期城市网络研究中数据匮乏的状况,关系数据应成为未来研究的侧重点;不同研究视角及其所应用的数据存在着一定的局限性,多元视角的综合研究成为趋势。在此基础上,提出城市网络研究未来可能的突破点,包括：调整国家城市网络的研究框架、超越交通数据直接考察城市间的实体联系、测度企业外部的横向联系、有向加权网络分析和可视化、增加研究中的地理“意味”等。     

A simple approach to evaluating leakage through thin impervious element of high embankment dams

Internal erosion is the most common reason which induces failure of embankment dams besides overtopping. Relatively large leakage is frequently concentrated at defects of impervious element, and this will lead to eventual failure. The amount of leakage depends not only on integrity of impervious element, but also on dam height, shape of valley, shape of impervious element and water level in reservoir. The integrity of impervious element, which represents the relative level of seepage safety, is not easy to be determined quantitatively. A simple method for generalization of steady seepage state of embankment dams with thin impervious element is proposed in this paper. The apparent overall value of permeability coefficient for impervious element can be obtained by this method with reasonable accuracy and efficiency. A defect parameter of impervious element is defined as an index to characterize seepage safety of embankment dams. It equals the ratio of the apparent overall value of permeability coefficient to the measured value in laboratory for intact materials. Subsequently, seepage safety of three dams is evaluated and the evolution of defect level of impervious element of dams is investigated. It is proved that the newly proposed method in this paper is feasible in the evaluation of relative seepage safety level of embankment dams with thin impervious element.     

Variations in glacier volume and snow cover and their impact on lake storage in the Paiku Co Basin,in the Central Himalayas

Glaciers and snow cover are important constituents of the surface of the Tibetan Plateau. The responses of these phenomena to global environmental changes are sensitive, rapid and intensive due to the high altitudes and arid cold climate of the Tibetan Plateau. Based on multisource remote sensing data, including Landsat images, MOD10A2 snow product, ICESat, Cryosat-2 altimetry data and long-term ground climate observations, we analysed the dynamic changes of glaciers, snow melting and lake in the Paiku Co basin using extraction methods for glaciers and lake, the degree-day model and the ice and lake volume method. The interaction among the climate, ice-snow and the hydrological elements in Paiku Co is revealed. From 2000 to 2018, the basin tended to be drier, and rainfall decreased at a rate of −3.07 mm/a. The seasonal temperature difference in the basin increased, the maximum temperature increased at a rate of 0.02°C/a and the minimum temperature decreased at a rate of −0.06°C/a, which accelerated the melting from glaciers and snow at rates of 0.55 × 10⁷ m³/a and 0.29 × 10⁷ m³/a, respectively. The rate of contribution to the lake from rainfall, snow and glacier melted water was 55.6, 27.7 and 16.7%, respectively. In the past 18 years, the warmer and drier climate has caused the lake to shrink. The water level of the lake continued to decline at a rate of −0.02 m/a, and the lake water volume decreased by 4.85 × 10⁸ m³ at a rate of −0.27 × 10⁸ m³/a from 2000 to 2018. This evaluation is important for understanding how the snow and ice melting in the central Himalayas affect the regional water cycle.     

天津轨道交通对地磁观测干扰的影响研究

直流牵引城市轨道交通系统在运行过程中产生的磁场对我国大城市周边地磁台站的观测数据产生较为严重的干扰.城市轨道交通运行过程中产生泄露电流是产生干扰的重要原因.本文以真空中的线电流磁场计算模型为基础,通过简化的远场磁场干扰模型对天津地铁轨道交通干扰进行理论建模.该模型计算简洁高效.通过对模型的数值模拟,获得了干扰随距离衰减...