Prediction of UT1–UTC,LOD and AAM χ<Subscript>3</Subscript> by combination of least-squares and multivariate stochastic methods

This article presents the application of a multivariate prediction technique for predicting universal time (UT1–UTC), length of day (LOD) and the axial component of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM χ ₃). The multivariate predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC are generated by means of the combination of (1) least-squares (LS) extrapolation of models for annual, semiannual, 18.6-year, 9.3-year oscillations and for the linear trend, and (2) multivariate autoregressive (MAR) stochastic prediction of LS residuals (LS + MAR). The MAR technique enables the use of the AAM χ ₃ time-series as the explanatory variable for the computation of LOD or UT1–UTC predictions. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, two other prediction schemes are also applied: (1) LS extrapolation, (2) combination of LS extrapolation and univariate autoregressive (AR) prediction of LS residuals (LS + AR). The multivariate predictions of AAM χ ₃ data, however, are computed as a combination of the extrapolation of the LS model for annual and semiannual oscillations and the LS + MAR. The AAM χ ₃ predictions are also compared with LS extrapolation and LS + AR prediction. It is shown that the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS + MAR taking into account the axial component of AAM are more accurate than the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS extrapolation or on LS + AR. In particular, the UT1–UTC predictions based on LS + MAR during El Niño/La Niña events exhibit considerably smaller prediction errors than those calculated by means of LS or LS + AR. The AAM χ ₃ time-series is predicted using LS + MAR with higher accuracy than applying LS extrapolation itself in the case of medium-term predictions (up to 100 days in the future). However, the predictions of AAM χ ₃ reveal the best accuracy for LS + AR.     

Results of recent Pacific-Arctic ice-ocean modeling studies at the Naval Postgraduate School

Summary of results from a high - resolution pan - Arctic ice - ocean model are presented for the northern North Pacific, Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas. The main focus is on the mean circulation, communication from the Gulf of Alaska across the Bering Sea into the western Arctic Ocean and on mesoscale eddy activity within several important ecosystems. Model results from 1979 -2004 are compared to observations whenever possible. The high spatial model resolution at 1/12o （or -9 - km） in the horizontal and 45 levels in the vertical direction allows for representation of eddies with diameters as small as 36 km. However, we believe that upcoming new model integrations at even higher resolution will allow us to resolve even smaller eddies. This is especially important at the highest latitudes where the Rossby radius of deformation is as small as 10 km or less.     

El Niño Impact on Polar Motion Prediction Errors

The polar motion prediction is computed as a least-squares extrapolation of the polar motion data. The least-squares model consists of a Chandler circle with constant or variable amplitude, annual and semiannual ellipses, and a bias. The model with constant amplitude of the Chandler oscillation is fit to the last three years of polar motion data and the model with variable amplitude of the Chandler oscillation is fit to the whole time series ranging from 1973.0 to 2001.1. The variable amplitude of the Chandler oscillation is modeled from the envelope of the Chandler oscillation filtered by the Fourier transform band pass filter from the long-term IERS EOPC01 polar motion series. The accuracy of the polar motion prediction depends mostly on the phase variation of the annual oscillation, which is treated as a constant in the least-squares adjustment. There were two significant changes of the annual oscillation phase of the order of 30° before the two El Niño events in 1982/83 and 1997/98.     

A Debt to the West: Recent Developments in the International Financial Situation of East-Central Europe

East-Central Europe is undergoing a rapid political and economic transformation. The unprecedented depth and speed of the economic reforms have produced serious questions about the stability of the region, and its future relations with western Europe and the world economy. This paper surveys and evaluates the size and character of existing debt stocks owed to the West by Hungary, Poland, and Czechoslovakia. The future political and economic stability of East-Central Europe and the European Community depends, to a large extent, on the ability of the Western financial system to respond to the long-term needs of the region.     

Analyses of zonal atmospheric excitation functions and their correlation with polar motion excitation functions

The atmospheric influence on the Earths, rotation can be described by the effective atmospheric angular momentum (EAAM) functions. In this study we focus on the analysis of short period variations of the equatorial components of the zonal EAAM excitation functions ₁ and ₂ and their influence on similar variations of polar motion. The global objective analysis data of the Japanese Meteorological Agency for the period 1986–1992 were used to compute the EAAM excitation functions in different latitude belts. Time- and latitude-variable amplitude spectra of variations of these functions with periods shorter than 150 days, containing pressure, pressure with the inverted barometric correction, and wind terms were computed. The spectra show distinct latitude and time variations of the prograde and retrograde oscillations which reach their maxima mainly in mid-latitudes. Prograde and retrograde oscillations with periods of about 40–60 days and about 110–120 days are seen in the spectra of pressure terms of the equatorial components of the zonal EAAM excitation functions. Additionally, correlation coefficients and cross-spectra between variations of the geodetic polar motion and equatorial components of the zonal EAAM excitation functions were computed to identify the latitude belts of the globe over which atmospheric circulation changes are correlated mostly with short period variations of the polar motion excitation functions. The correlation coefficients vary in time and latitude and reach maximum values in the northern latitudes from 50°N to 60°N. In the cross-spectra between the polar motion excitation functions and pressure terms of the zonal EAAM excitation functions there are peaks of common prograde oscillations with the periods around 20, 30, 40–50, 60 and 80–150 days and of common retrograde oscillations around 20, 30, 40 and 50–70 days.Paper presented at the IERS Workshop in Paris, March 1994     

Semiannual and annual oscillations of sea level and their impact on asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña episodes

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we demonstrate that the asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña events recorded in sea level variation occurs only during extreme episodes of El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Second, we explain that the asymmetry is controlled by certain regular cycles which have time-variable amplitudes. Gridded maps of sea level anomaly that form a spatial-temporal time series (spatial resolution: 1° × 1°, sampling interval: 1 week) spanning the time interval from 14/10/1993 to 18/04/2012 were used. We examined those time series and found that certain regular harmonic signals (periods: 365, 182, 120, 90 and 62 days) are dominant terms of their temporal variability. By subtracting those oscillations from sea level anomaly data, residuals were determined. Using skewness and kurtosis as measures of asymmetry and nonlinearity — after adopting 10-year moving window — we found that the extreme El Niño 1997/1998 has been a dominant driving force of the asymmetry and nonlinearity of El Niño/Southern Oscillation since the end of 1993. In order to detect residual signals that are responsible for the asymmetry, we applied the Fourier Transform Band Pass Filter and found that there are two important oscillations remaining in the residual sea level anomaly data, i.e. the annual and semiannual ones with time-varying amplitudes. We hypothesize that temporarily uneven amplitudes have meaningful impact on the aforementioned asymmetry.     

Variability of polar motion oscillations with periods from 20 to 150 days in 1979–1991

Variability of short period oscillations of polar motion with periods ranging from 20 to 150 days were investigated in the period 1979–1991. The new computation method of time variable band pass filter spectra and the Wavelet Transform method were applied. These oscillations are elliptical with variable amplitudes. Modulation periods of amplitude variations of these oscillations of about two and three years were found. Correlations of short period oscillations of polar motion and of effective atmospheric angular momentum (EAAM) excitation functions show annual variations and connections of their increases with El Niño phenomena.     

Comparison of Two Wavelet Transform Coherence and Cross-Covariance Functions Applied on Polar Motion and Atmospheric Excitation

The wavelet transform techniques were applied to compute time-frequency spectra, coherence and cross-covariance functions between complex-valued polar motion and atmospheric excitation functions. These wavelet transform approaches are based on the classical wavelet transform with Morlet wavelet and the harmonic wavelet transform. The computed coherence and cross-covariance functions enable comparison of polar motion and atmospheric excitation functions data in the chosen frequency band. In the study we concentrate on short period oscillations with periods ranging from several to about 250 days. The time lag functions show frequency dependent time lags corresponding to maxima of the modules of cross-covariance functions between the polar motion and atmospheric excitation functions.     

Flat-footed Females and Missing Males: A New Genus and Species of Pleciofungivoridae (Diptera: Bibionomorpha) Represents the First Record of the Family from Mid-Cretaceous Kachin Amber

A new genus and species, Cretopleciofungivora simpsoni gen. et sp. nov., from the extinct family Pleciofungivoridae (Diptera: Bibionomorpha), is discovered in mid-Cretaceous Kachin amber. Previously, this family was known only from imprints in sedimentary rocks of the Jurassic and the Lower Cretaceous. Discovery of a representative of Pleciofungivoridae in Kachin amber confirms the presence of the family in the Upper Cretaceous. The new species has a unique structure of fore tarsus, with lobed and extended tarsal segments II to IV, a feature hitherto known only in a few species of extant Sciaroidea. Although not particularly rare, the new species is currently known only from female specimens. Possible reasons for this phenomenon, very unusual in Sciaroidea, are briefly discussed, including parthenogenesis as a potentially plausible hypothesis.     

Dynamics of viscous universe

The dynamics of the viscous Robertson-Walker universe is presented using the phase variables method. Connection between violence of the strong energy condition and the behaviour of the Universe near the singularity is discussed.