Thick and thin models of the evolution of carbon dioxide on Mars

We present results from a new simulation code that accounts for the evolution of the reservoirs of carbon dioxide on Mars, from its early years to the present. We establish a baseline model parameter set that produces results compatible with the present (i.e., Patm?6.5 mbar with permanent CO₂ ice cap) for a wide range of initial inventories. We find that the initial inventory of CO₂ broadly determines the evolutionary course of the reservoirs of CO₂. The reservoirs include the atmosphere, ice cap, adsorbed CO₂ in the regolith, and carbonate rocks. We track the evolution of the free inventory: the atmosphere, ice cap and regolith. Simulations begin at 4.53 Gyr before present with a rapid loss of free inventory to space in the early Noachian. Models that assume a relatively small initial inventory (?5 bar) have pronounced minima in the free inventory of CO₂ toward the end of the Noachian. Under baseline parameters, initial inventories below ∼4.5 bar result in a catastrophic loss of the free inventory to space. The current free inventory would be then determined by the balance between outgassing, sputtering losses and chemical weathering following the end of the late bombardment. We call these “thin” models. They generically predict small current free inventories in line with expectations of a small present CO₂ ice cap. For “thick” models, with initial inventories ?5 bar, a surplus of 300-700 mbar of free CO₂ remains during the late-Noachian. The histories of free inventory in time for thick models tend to converge within the last 3.5 Gyr toward a present with an ice cap plus atmospheric inventory of about 100 mbar. For thick models, the convergence is largely due to the effects of chemical weathering, which draws down higher free inventories more rapidly than the low. Thus, thick models have ?450 mbar carbonate reservoirs, while thin models have ?200 mbar. Though both thick and thin scenarios can reproduce the current atmospheric pressure, the thick models imply a relatively large current CO₂ ice cap and thin models, little or none. While the sublimation of a massive cap at a high obliquity would create a climate swing of greenhouse warming for thick models, under the thin model, mean temperatures and pressures would be essentially unaffected by increases in obliquity.     

Spectra of simulated lightning on Venus,Jupiter, and Titan

Laser-induced plasmas in various gas mixtures were used to simulate lightning in other planetary atmospheres. This method of simulation has the advantage of producing short-duration, high-temperature plasmas free from electrode contamination. The laser-induced plasma discharges in air are shown to accurately simulate terrestrial lightning and can be expected to simulate lightning spectra in other planetary atmospheres. Spectra from 240 to 880 nm are presented for simulated lightning in the atmospheres of Venus, Earth, Jupiter, and Titan. The spectra of lightning on the other giant planets are expected to be similar to that of Jupiter because the atmospheres of these planets are composed mainly of hydrogen and helium. The spectra of Venus and Titan show substantial amounts of radiation due to the presence of carbon atoms and ions and show CN Violet radiation. Although small amounts of CH₄ and NH₃ are present in the Jovian atmosphere, only emission from hydrogen and helium is observed. Most differences in the spectra can be understood in terms of the elemental ratios of the gas mixtures. Consequently, observations of the spectra of lightning on other planets should provide in situ estimates of the atmospheric and aerosol composition in the cloud layers in which lightning is occuring. In particular, the detection of inert gases such as helium should be possible and the relative abundance of these gases compared to major constituents might be determined.     

Noctilucent cloud formation and the effects of water vapor variability on temperatures in the middle atmosphere

To investigate the occurrence of low temperatures and the formation of noctilucent clouds in the summer mésosphere a one-dimensional time-dependent photochemical-thermal numerical model of the atmosphere between 50 and 120 km has been constructed. The model includes the important chemistry of the hydrogen and oxygen species and transport by eddy and molecular processes. The thermal balance incorporates: heating by solar ultraviolet radiation; transport of chemical potential energy; eddy diffusion and dissipation; molecular conduction; airglow emissions; and infrared cooling by carbon dioxide. A non- LTE parameterization is used to calculate 15 μm band cooling by carbon dioxide. The model self-consistently solves the coupled photochemical and thermal equations as perturbation equations from a reference state assumed to be in equilibrium and is used to consider the effect of variability in water vapor in the lower mesosphere on the temperature in the region of noctilucent cloud formation. It is found that change in water vapor from an equilibrium value of 5 ppm at 50 km to a value of 10 ppm, a variation consistent with observations, can produce a ~ 15 K drop in temperature at 82 km. It is suggested that this process may produce long periods (weeks) of cold temperatures and influence noctilucent cloud formation.     

Fossil midge associations and the historical status of fish in acidified lakes

Chaoborid and chironomid (Diptera) fossils were examined in sediment cores form nine Ontario Precambrian Shield lakes that were fishless in 1979. An abundance of Chaoborus americamus (intolerant of predation by fish) throughout cores from four lakes indicated that they were fishless historically. Occurrence of Chaoborus punctipennis and C. flavicans and absence of C. americanus in cores, except near the surface in two cases, indicated that four other lakes were inhabited by fish historically. One of these was probably periodically fishless as suggested by fluctuations among these Chaoborus species. The ninth lake was not suitable for Chaoborus; only one specimen of C. trivittatus was found in this core. Chironomid fossil associations were substantially different in historically fishless and inhabited lakes. Fishless lakes had chironomids typical of eutrophic conditions indicating that seasonal oxygen depletion likely was inimical to fish. Chironomid associations of oligotrophic waters occurred in lakes historically inhabited by fish. Both good water quality and accessibility were required for long-term habitation by fish. Partial recovery of alkalinity and rise in pH were accompanied by substantial re-invasion by fish in two lakes which had been inhabited historically by fish. Diptera associations provide valuable information on the historical suitability of lakes for fish and the presence/absence of fish in regions where acidification of surface waters has occurred.     

A new method of initial orbit determination

Up to now we have been dealing with the construction of entirely analytical planetary theories such as VSOP82 (Bretagnon, 1982) and TOP82 (Simon, 1983). These theories take into account the whole of the Newtonian perturbations of nine point masses: the Sun, the Earth-Moon barycentre, the planets Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. They also take into account perturbations due to some minor planets, to the action of the Moon and the relativistic effects. The perturbations of these last three types are in a very simple way under analytical form but they considerably increase the computations when introduced in the numerical integration programs.In the present paper we thus study a solution in which the Newtonian perturbations for the ten point masses are treated through numerical integration, the other perturbations being analytically added.     

Water transport from the North-east Irish Sea to western Scottish coastal waters: Further observations from time-trend matching of Sellafield radiocaesium

Radiocaesium isotopes, discharged into the North-east Irish Sea from the Sellafield (formerly Windscale) nuclear fuel reprocessing plant in Cumbria, have been employed as flow monitors to update and extend the record of coastal water movement from the Irish Sea to the Clyde Sea area and, further north, to Loch Etive. The temporal trends in radiocaesium levels have been used to determine the extent of water mixing en route and to define mean advection rates. Flow conditions from the Irish Sea have changed considerably since the mid-1970s, the residence time of northern Irish Sea waters being ～12 months during 1978–1980 inclusive. Average transport times of four and six months are estimated for the Sellafield to Clyde and Sellafield to Etive transects respectively. Sellafield ¹³⁷Cs levels in seawater were diluted by factors of 27 and 50 respectively during current movement to the Clyde and Etive areas. The decrease in salinity-corrected ¹³⁷Cs concentrations between the Clyde and Etive suggests that dilution by Atlantic water occurs, the latter mainly entering the Firth of Lorne from the west. The majority (～94%) of the radiocaesium supply to Loch Etive enters the Firth of Lorne via the portion of the coastal current circulating west of Islay, only ～6% arriving via the Sound of Jura.     

A bootstrap based space–time surveillance model with an application to crime occurrences

This study proposes a bootstrap-based space–time surveillance model. Designed to find emerging hotspots in near-real time, the bootstrap based model is characterized by its use of past occurrence information and bootstrap permutations. Many existing space–time surveillance methods, using population at risk data to generate expected values, have resulting hotspots bounded by administrative area units and are of limited use for near-real time applications because of the population data needed. However, this study generates expected values for local hotspots from past occurrences rather than population at risk. Also, bootstrap permutations of previous occurrences are used for significant tests. Consequently, the bootstrap-based model, without the requirement of population at risk data, (1) is free from administrative area restriction, (2) enables more frequent surveillance for continuously updated registry database, and (3) is readily applicable to criminology and epidemiology surveillance. The bootstrap-based model performs better for space–time surveillance than the space–time scan statistic. This is shown by means of simulations and an application to residential crime occurrences in Columbus, OH, year 2000.     

Sediment oxygen profiles in a super-oxygenated antarctic lake

Perennially ice-covered lakes are found in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of southern Victoria Land, Antarctica. In contrast to temperate lakes that have diurnal photic periods, antarctic (and arctic) lakes have a yearly photic period. An unusual feature of the antarctic lakes is the occurrence of O2 at supersaturated levels in certain portions of the water column. Here we report the first sediment O2 profiles obtained using a microelectrode from a perennially ice-covered antarctic lake. Sediment cores collected in January and October 1987 from Lake Hoare in Taylor Valley show oxygenation down to 15, and in some cases, 25 cm. The oxygenation of sediments several centimeters below the sediment-water interface is atypical for lake sediments and may be characteristic of perennially ice-covered lakes. There is a significant difference between the observed January and October sediment O2 profiles. Several explanations may account for the difference, including seasonality. A time-dependent model is presented which tests the feasibility of a seasonal cycle resulting from the long photoperiod and benthic primary production in sediments overlain by a highly oxygenated water column.