Exurbia from the bottom-up: Confronting empirical challenges to characterizing a complex system

We describe empirical results from a multi-disciplinary project that support modeling complex processes of land-use and land-cover change in exurban parts of Southeastern Michigan. Based on two different conceptual models, one describing the evolution of urban form as a consequence of residential preferences and the other describing land-cover changes in an exurban township as a consequence of residential preferences, local policies, and a diversity of development types, we describe a variety of empirical data collected to support the mechanisms that we encoded in computational agent-based models. We used multiple methods, including social surveys, remote sensing, and statistical analysis of spatial data, to collect data that could be used to validate the structure of our models, calibrate their specific parameters, and evaluate their output. The data were used to investigate this system in the context of several themes from complexity science, including have (a) macro-level patterns; (b) autonomous decision making entities (i.e., agents); (c) heterogeneity among those entities; (d) social and spatial interactions that operate across multiple scales and (e) nonlinear feedback mechanisms. The results point to the importance of collecting data on agents and their interactions when producing agent-based models, the general validity of our conceptual models, and some changes that we needed to make to these models following data analysis. The calibrated models have been and are being used to evaluate landscape dynamics and the effects of various policy interventions on urban land-cover patterns.     

Estimating Deep Seafloor Interface and Volume Roughness Parameters Using the Multibeam-Hydrosweep System

Utilizing a hull-mounted, multinarrow beam echosounder onboard RV Polarstern, we measured variation of acoustic backscatter with incidence angles at two different sites in the Southern Oceans (Agulhas Plateau and the Riiser Larsen Sea). We modeled the data, using a composite roughness model, including water-sediment interface roughness and sediment volume roughness parameters. The model effectively uses the near normal incidence angle backscatter to determine the seafloor interface roughness parameters employing Helmholtz-Kirchhoff theory. Beyond 20° incidence angles, an application of Rayleigh-Rice theory is made by using a necessary splicing technique (combining both of the theories at 20° incidence angle). The estimated interface and volume roughness parameters are found to be in accordance with the known area geology.     

Stability of outer planetary orbits around binary stars: A comparison of Hill's and Laplace's stability criteria

A comparison is made between the stability criteria of Hill and that of Laplace to determine the stability of outer planetary orbits encircling binary stars. The restricted, analytically determined results of Hill's method by Szebehely and co-workers and the general, numerically integrated results of Laplace's method by Graziani and Black are compared for varying values of the mass parameter =m ₂/(m ₁+m ₂). For 00.15, the closest orbit (lower limit of radius) an outer planet in a binary system can have and still remain stable is determined by Hill's stability criterion. For >0.15, the critical radius is determined by Laplace's stability criterion. It appears that the Graziani-Black stability criterion describes the critical orbit within a few percent for all values of .     

An experimental study of magnesium-isotope fractionation in chlorophyll-a photosynthesis

Measurements are presented of the magnesium isotopic composition of chlorophyll-a, extracted from cyanobacteria, relative to the isotopic composition of the culture medium in which the cyanobacteria were grown. Yields of 50-93% chlorophyll-a were achieved from the pigment extracts of Synechococcus elongatus, a unicellular cyanobacteria. This material was then digested using concentrated nitric acid to extract magnesium. Separation was accomplished using columns of cation-exchange resin, which achieved a 103 ± 10% yield of magnesium from chlorophyll-a. This procedure ensured accurate measurement of the magnesium-isotopic ratios without isobaric interferences using a multi-collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (MC-ICP-MS). We find a slight depletion in the heavier isotopes of magnesium in chlorophyll-a relative to culture medium, early growth phase: Δ²⁶Mg = −0.71(±0.35)‰ and Δ²⁵Mg = −0.37(±0.18)‰; late growth phase: Δ²⁶Mg = −0.53(±0.20)‰ and Δ²⁵Mg = −0.26(±0.11)‰, due to an apparent mass-dependent fractionation. We suggest that the small fractionation results from chelation during intracellular processes. A likely candidate for this chelation step involves the magnesium-chelatase enzyme, which mediates the insertion of magnesium to the tetrapyrrole ring during chlorophyll-a biosynthesis. Proof of this hypothesis can be tested with biological controls whereby steps in the enzymatic pathways of chlorophyll synthesis are selectively suppressed.     

Spatial process and data models: Toward integration of agent-based models and GIS

The use of object-orientation for both spatial data and spatial process models facilitates their integration, which can allow exploration and explanation of spatial-temporal phenomena. In order to better understand how tight coupling might proceed and to evaluate the possible functional and efficiency gains from such a tight coupling, we identify four key relationships affecting how geographic data (fields and objects) and agent-based process models can interact: identity, causal, temporal and topological. We discuss approaches to implementing tight integration, focusing on a middleware approach that links existing GIS and ABM development platforms, and illustrate the need and approaches with example agent-based models.     

Validation of a fish farm waste resuspension model by use of a particulate tracer discharged from a point source in a coastal environment

To validate a resuspension model of particulate material (salmonid farm wastes), a UV fluorescent particle tracer was selected with similar settling characteristics. Tracer was introduced to the seabed (water depth ≈30 m) and sediment samples taken on days 0, 3, 10, 17 and 30 to measure the horizontal and vertical distribution of tracer in sediments. A concentric sampling grid was established at radii of 25, 50, 100, 150, 200, 400, 700 and 1, 000 m from the source on transects 30° apart. The bulk of the deployed tracer was initially concentrated in an area 25 m radius from the release point; tracer was observed to steadily decrease to zero over a period of 30 days. In a 200 m region measured from the release point in the direction of the residual current, the redeposition of tracer was low. A Lagrangian particle tracking model was validated using these observed data by varying resuspension model parameters within limits to obtain the best agreement between spatial and temporal distributions. The validated model generally gave good predictions of total mass budgets (±7% of total tracer released), particulary where tracer concentrations were high near the release point. Best fit model parameters (critical erosion shear stress=0.018 N m⁻², erodibility constan=60 g m⁻² d⁻¹) are at the low end of reported parameters for coastal resuspension models. Such a low critical erosion shear stress indicates that the frequency of resuspension and deposition events for freshly deposited material is high.     

Estimates of lichen growth–rate in northern Sweden

Two lichenometric techniques were compared in a study of lichen growth–rate in northern Sweden. The first technique, based on the maximum lichen diameter on glacier moraines, was identical to the technique used in the 1970s, whereas the other utilized the lichen diameter measured on 100 randomly selected boulders. The results indicate that it does not matter which technique is chosen, as long as the technique is used consistently on both the calibration surfaces and the surfaces to be dated. The use of data from both the 1970s and the 2000s increased the number of calibration surfaces available. The new calibration curve indicates that the age of Little Ice Age moraines was underestimated by up to about 30 years in the study conducted in the 1970s.     

Calcrete profile development in Quaternary alluvial sequences,southeast Spain: implications for using calcretes as a basis for landform chronologies

A detailed study of the morphology and micro‐morphology of Quaternary alluvial calcrete profiles from the Sorbas Basin shows that calcretes may be morphologically simple or complex. The ‘simple’ profiles reflect pedogenesis occurring after alluvial terrace formation and consist of a single pedogenic horizon near the land surface. The ‘complex’ profiles reflect the occurrence of multiple calcrete events during terrace sediment aggradation and further periods of pedogenesis after terrace formation. These ‘complex’ calcrete profiles are consequently described as composite profiles. The exact morphology of the composite profiles depends upon: (1) the number of calcrete‐forming events occurring during terrace sediment aggradation; (2) the amount of sediment accretion that occurs between each period of calcrete formation; and (3) the degree of pedogenesis after terrace formation. Simple calcrete profiles are most useful in establishing landform chronologies because they represent a single phase of pedogenesis after terrace formation. Composite profiles are more problematic. Pedogenic calcretes that form within them may inherit carbonate from calcrete horizons occurring lower down in the terrace sediments. In addition erosion may lead to the exhumation of older calcretes within the terrace sediment. Calcrete ‘inheritance’ may make pedogenic horizons appear more mature than they actually are and produce horizons containing carbonate embracing a range of ages. Calcrete exhumation exposes calcrete horizons whose morphology and radiometric ages are wholly unrelated to terrace surface age. Composite profiles are, therefore, only suitable for chronological studies if the pedogenic horizon capping the terrace sequence can be clearly distinguished from earlier calcrete‐forming events. Thus, a detailed morphological/micro‐morphological study is required before any chronological study is undertaken. This is the only way to establish whether particular calcrete profiles are suitable for dating purposes. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.