A global river routing network for use in hydrological modeling

In this paper a relatively simple procedure is presented to construct a global river routing network on a 0.5° latitude–longitude grid. In this network all grid cells in a catchment are coupled and have a flow direction, making it a useful tool in the modeling of river flow on a global scale. The flow directions are based on a digital elevation model and on information on the locations of major rivers (‘stream burning’). The presented river routing network is specifically designed for the assessment of fresh water shortages. We tested the validity of the river routing network by comparing the computed drainage areas with published estimates. This comparison revealed a good similarity and it is concluded that the presented river routing network has sufficient quality to be implemented in global climate models. This could mean a considerable improvement of the surface parameterization in these models.     

Uncertainty management and the dynamic adjustment of deep decarbonization pathways

Contrary to ‘static’ pathways that are defined once for all, this article deals with the need for policy makers to adopt a dynamic adaptive policy pathway for managing decarbonization over the period of implementation. When choosing a pathway as the most desirable option, it is important to keep in mind that each decarbonization option relies on the implementation of specific policies and instruments. Given structural, effectiveness, and timing uncertainties specific to each policy option, they may fail in delivering the expected outcomes in time. The possibility of diverging from an initial decarbonization trajectory to another one without incurring excessive costs should therefore be a strategic element in the design of an appropriate decarbonization strategy. The article relies on initial experiences in France and Germany on decarbonization planning and implementation to define elements for managing dynamic adjustment issues. Such an adaptive pathway strategy should combine long-lived incentives, like a pre-announced escalating carbon price, to form consistent expectations, as well as adaptive policies to improve overall robustness and resilience. We sketch key elements of a monitoring process based on an ex ante definition of leading indicators that should be assessed regularly and combined with signposts and trigger values at the subsector level.

Policy relevance

These research questions are of special interest and urgency following the Paris Agreement in 2015. It calls on all countries to monitor the implementation of their national contributions and review their ambition regularly. The regular revision of decarbonization pathways constitute a great research opportunity to gather experiences on decarbonization pathway implementation and on dynamic management issues to progress towards an operational dynamic adaptive policy pathway mechanism.     

Computer software for identifying compositional subpopulations in marine sediment geochemical data using threshold value analysis

The material of marine sediments is commonly derived from multiple sources or processes. Consequently, individual sediment samples can be viewed as mixtures of two or more distinct geochemical subpopulations. Certain quantitative procedures such as threshold value analysis are capable of isolating and identifying the subpopulations that are present within a suite of sediment samples through an analysis of bulk sediment compositional data. Thus, these methods are useful in mineral exploration programs because they facilitate the task of discriminating between samples containing background versus anomalous chemical signals. This study reports the development and testing of computer software (ProbabilityGrapher) for threshold value analysis using a probability graphing technique. This program is designed for microcomputers so that it can be readily applied in field situations where the rapid in situ reduction and interpretation of geochemical data is important to the planning and continuation of an exploration survey. The software can also be used in concert with the Q_—LM software package previously developed for Q‐mode factor analysis and linear modeling, thus providing a powerful combination of data reduction and interpretation tools for investigating sediment composition information.